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Pop Mart International Group Ltd (9992) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$203B (≈ $25.8B) · ISIN KYG7170M1033

What is Pop Mart International Group Ltd really worth?

PM Pop Mart International Group Ltd 9992 · HK
PriceHK$154.70
Fair ValueHK$227.30
Upside+46.9%
Quality88/100

A strong business, trading 32% below our fair value of HK$227.30.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +70.4 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 34.4% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (11/15)
✓Wide moat 100/100

Risks

!The models disagree: range HK$127.88 to HK$419.60

For context

·1.54% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range HK$127.88 – HK$419.60

Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 7 days ago

Share price −4.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The rarer combination: high quality (88/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$127.88 to HK$419.60). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$329.56 HK$9.80 Fair Value HK$227.30 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$9.80 – HK$329.56 · fair‑value band HK$127.88 – HK$419.60 · the HK$154.70 price screens below the HK$227.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

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Analysis

Pop Mart International Group Ltd (9992) currently trades at HK$154.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$227.30, implying the stock looks roughly 31.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 88/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$437.78 per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$154.70 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$67.50, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Pop Mart International Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$37.1B at a net margin of 34.4%. Revenue grew 174.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 77.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$10.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$127.88 (bear case) to HK$419.60 (bull case); at HK$154.70, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 47%, 9992 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.7092 per share, which is 0.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
EPV HK$105.39 HK$122.15 HK$137.05 74
FCF DCF HK$141.18 HK$221.25 HK$483.07 73
Growth DCF HK$133.66 HK$267.26 HK$491.65 72
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$141.18 HK$221.25 HK$483.07 73
Owner Earnings HK$166.56 HK$376.26 HK$836.18 68
5Y Revenue Exit HK$63.65 HK$89.24 HK$141.69 70
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$137.01 HK$237.64 HK$435.12 70
5Y P/E Exit HK$164.73 HK$365.99 HK$642.16 65
10Y Revenue Exit HK$85.20 HK$143.75 HK$171.18 65
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$141.06 HK$305.46 HK$593.35 62
10Y P/E Exit HK$161.74 HK$366.54 HK$707.82 58
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$64.07 HK$446.85 HK$627.08 61
Lynch FV HK$230.86 HK$329.80 HK$428.74 59
PEG = 1.0 HK$230.86 HK$329.80 HK$428.74 55
EPV HK$105.39 HK$122.15 HK$137.05 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$7.69 HK$16.78 HK$28.23 63
DDM Multi-Stage HK$7.69 HK$13.74 HK$17.49 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$155.48 HK$207.30 HK$259.13 63
P/S Multiple HK$24.64 HK$32.85 HK$41.07 58
P/B Multiple HK$50.62 HK$67.50 HK$84.37 55
EV/EBIT HK$178.70 HK$234.80 HK$290.89 66
EV/EBITDA HK$130.03 HK$169.90 HK$209.77 67
EV/Revenue HK$33.42 HK$43.28 HK$53.13 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$8.44 HK$11.31 HK$16.87 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$133.66 HK$267.26 HK$491.65 72
Rev-Margin DCF HK$68.39 HK$100.83 HK$169.80 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$123.92 HK$258.67 HK$10,816 61
ROIC Compounder HK$115.41 HK$149.16 HK$189.51 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$306.45 HK$437.78 HK$569.12 65

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$437.78) versus Asset-Based (HK$11.31). Highest evidence: EPV (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 13.9 as of Jul 3, 2026
P/S ratio 4.78 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$3.43 price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.9
Dividend yield 1.5% payout 69.4%
Net margin 34.4% FY2025
Return on equity 77.6% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 22.4% avg 5y
Operating margin 48.0% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$37.1B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +174% 3y avg +98.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +271%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$9.7B FY2025
Net cash HK$10.9B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 88/100

Of which business quality 85 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18

Profitability 97
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 79
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 31
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 37
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 13
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Pop Mart International Group Limited, an investment holding company, designs, develops, and sells pop toys in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. The company offers blind boxes.

Full company description

Pop Mart International Group Limited, an investment holding company, designs, develops, and sells pop toys in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. The company offers blind boxes. It sells its products through a network of retail stores and roboshops; online channels, including Tmall flagship store, DouYin, Pop Draw, and other online channels; and wholesale channels and others. The company also provides internet technology, customer, and technology development services; and operates playgrounds, as well as engages in investment and exhibition activities. Pop Mart International Group Limited was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Pop Mart International Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$36.2B in FY2025 versus HK$4.5B in FY2021, a compound +68.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$12.4B in FY2025, compounding +95.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$36.2B
Latest YoY
+177.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+98.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+70.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (8Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+97.2%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+86.4% (84.9 + 1.5)
Revenue +68.5%/yr
FY21 HK$4.5B
FY22 HK$4.6B
FY23 HK$6.3B
FY24 HK$13.0B
FY25 HK$36.2B
Net income +95.4%/yr
FY21 HK$854M
FY22 HK$476M
FY23 HK$1.1B
FY24 HK$3.1B
FY25 HK$12.4B

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Pop Mart International Group Ltd · Fair Value
HK$227.30 +32%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pop Mart International Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9992

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Leisure · 190 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 88 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +47% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 78% · Top 25%
Return on assets 45% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 34% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 48% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 174% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.5% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B 9.09× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 5.46× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 2.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 10.8× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.80× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE96 · sector 16
FUTURE100 · sector 14
PAST100 · sector 19
HEALTH100 · sector 94
DIVIDEND31 · sector 55

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).

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ANTA Sports Products Limited 82020 HK$65.10 HK$97.98 +51%
Amer Sports, Inc AS $33.03 $16.16 −51%
Hasbro, Inc HAS $94.10 $81.97 −13%
Life Time Group LTH $45.40 $15.61 −66%
Li Ning Company 82331 HK$11.62 HK$11.48 −1%
Acushnet Holdings GOLF $89.10 $36.89 −59%
Ninebot Limited 689009 ¥44.94 ¥39.73 −12%
Mattel, Inc MAT $15.26 $18.93 +24%
Planet Fitness, Inc PLNT $53.33 $52.62 −1%
Fluidra, S.A FDR €19.31 €19.47 +1%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Pop Mart International Group Ltd (9992) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$227.30 versus a price of HK$154.70, about +47% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 9992?
Our model-based fair value for Pop Mart International Group Ltd is HK$227.30 (as of Aug 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$154.70.
What is the quality score of 9992?
Pop Mart International Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 88/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Pop Mart International Group Ltd (9992)?
Pop Mart International Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$37.1B (latest available figure, as of Aug 29, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 9992?
The net profit margin of Pop Mart International Group Ltd is about 34.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 34.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Pop Mart International Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Pop Mart International Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.54% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 29, 2026).
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