Mattel Inc (MAT) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $4.2B · ISIN US5770811025
What is Mattel Inc really worth?
Mattel Inc
MAT · US
A solid business, trading 24% below our fair value of $18.93.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 9 days ago
Share price −3.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($12.22 to $29.56) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.05 – $26.97 · fair‑value band $12.22 – $29.56 · the $14.30 price screens below the $18.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Mattel Inc (MAT) currently trades at $14.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.93, implying the stock looks roughly 24.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $23.26 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the $14.30 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.15, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Mattel Inc generated revenue of $5.4B at a net margin of 9.3%. Revenue grew 4.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 23.6%. Net debt stands at $1.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $12.22 (bear case) to $29.56 (bull case); at $14.30, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 32%, MAT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.06 per share, which is 5.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($23.26) versus Dividend Discount ($0.1000). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Mattel, Inc., a play and family entertainment company, designs, manufactures, markets, and sells toys, games, and other products in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific.
Full company description
Mattel, Inc., a play and family entertainment company, designs, manufactures, markets, and sells toys, games, and other products in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers dolls and accessories, books, content, and lifestyle products for children under the Barbie, American Girl, Disney Princess, Disney Frozen, Monster High, Polly Pocket, and KPop Demon Hunters brands; die-cast vehicles, tracks, playsets, and accessories for kids, adults, and collectors under the Hot Wheels, Hot Wheels Monster Trucks, Hot Wheels RC, Matchbox, and Matchbox, and Cars brands; and infant, toddler, and preschool products comprising toys, content, live events, and other consumer products under the Fisher-Price, Little People, Thomas & Friends, and Power Wheels brands. It also provides action figures, building sets, games, and other products under the Masters of the Universe, Mattel Brick Shop, MEGA, UNO, Jurassic World, Minecraft, WWE, Toy Story, Star Wars, Pictionary, Skip-Bo, Phase 10, and Blokus brands; and licensor partner brands, including Disney Pixar, Microsoft, NBCUniversal, and WWE. The company sells its products to retailers, including omnichannel retailers, discount and free-standing toy stores, chain stores, department stores, and other retail outlets; wholesalers; and directly to consumers through retail spaces, boutique stores, agents and distributors, and its e-commerce platforms and third-party e-commerce channels. Mattel, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in El Segundo, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mattel Inc reported revenue of $5.3B in FY2025 versus $5.5B in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was $398M in FY2025, compounding −18.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −0.7 % · buybacks/dilution +0.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch MAT: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Mattel to Participate in Upcoming Investor Events
- Mattel Names Maluma, Supercar Blondie and Robert Lewandowski as Its First-ever Hot Wheels Class of Legends™ in New Challenge Accepted Campai
- Mattel Q2 Sales Beat Estimates as Margin Pressure Squeezes Earnings
- Should You Buy Mattel as Growth Battles Margin and Execution Risks?
Peer Group
Leisure · 190 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 82020 | HK$65.10 | HK$97.98 | +51% |
| Pop Mart International Group 9992 | HK$158.70 | HK$227.30 | +43% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $33.03 | $16.16 | −51% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $94.10 | $81.97 | −13% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $45.40 | $15.61 | −66% |
| Li Ning Company 82331 | HK$11.62 | HK$11.48 | −1% |
| Acushnet Holdings GOLF | $89.10 | $36.89 | −59% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥44.94 | ¥39.73 | −12% |
| Planet Fitness, Inc PLNT | $53.33 | $52.62 | −1% |
| Fluidra, S.A FDR | €19.31 | €19.47 | +1% |
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