Fortescue Ltd (FMG) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$56.9B (≈ $41.0B) · ISIN AU000000FMG4
What is Fortescue Ltd really worth?
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of A$18.62.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Share price −3.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$9.46 – A$24.93 · fair‑value band A$13.97 – A$23.28 · the A$17.22 price screens below the A$18.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Fortescue Ltd (FMG) currently trades at A$17.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$18.62, implying the stock looks roughly 7.5% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$47.17 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$17.22 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$4.35, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Fortescue Ltd generated revenue of A$16.3B at a net margin of 22.9%. Revenue grew 10.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.7%. Net debt stands at A$1.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$13.97 (bear case) to A$23.28 (bull case); at A$17.22, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 8%, FMG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly A$0.4800 per share, which is 2.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$47.17) versus Asset-Based (A$4.35). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Fortescue Ltd engages in the exploration, development, production, processing, and sale of iron ore in Australia, China, and internationally. The company explores for copper and lithium deposits; and rare earth elements.
Full company description
Fortescue Ltd engages in the exploration, development, production, processing, and sale of iron ore in Australia, China, and internationally. The company explores for copper and lithium deposits; and rare earth elements. It owns and operates rail and port facilities; and focuses on producing green energy and green hydrogen, including derivatives comprising green ammonia, as well as green technology development and manufacturing. The company was formerly known as Fortescue Metals Group Limited and changed its name to Fortescue Ltd in November 2023. Fortescue Ltd was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Fortescue Ltd reported revenue of $15.4B in FY2025 versus $22.4B in FY2021, a compound −8.9%/yr. Reported net income was $3.4B in FY2025, compounding −24.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.1 % · buybacks/dilution +0.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch FMG: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- WA Government and YNAC appeal Fortescue compensation ruling
- Fortescue (ASX:FMG) Shares May Be Fairly Valued After Green Metal Progress
- Fortescue (ASX:FMG) Looks Fully Valued After Earnings Dividend And Green Energy Update
- Fortescue shares fall as China reportedly restricts iron ore shipments (FSUGY)
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 469 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHP | A$66.84 | A$42.16 | −37% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $15.31 | $8.95 | −42% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 65.50 SAR | 33.87 SAR | −48% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.42 | ¥16.15 | −12% |
| Teck Resources Limited TECK | $69.34 | $32.02 | −54% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹573.00 | ₹508.34 | −11% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥66.76 | ¥9.55 | −86% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥41.02 | ¥10.59 | −74% |
| Western Mining Co 601168 | ¥37.85 | ¥25.99 | −31% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 527.80 | kr 461.48 | −13% |
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