Fincantieri SpA (FCT) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · IT · Market cap €4.6B · ISIN IT0005599938
What is Fincantieri SpA really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 52% above our fair value of €8.04.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price −8.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (€3.82 to €12.71). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.55 – €26.92 · fair‑value band €3.82 – €12.71 · the €12.22 price screens above the €8.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Fincantieri SpA (FCT) currently trades at €12.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €8.04, implying the stock looks roughly 51.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €9.57 per share, and 4 of the 25 models we run sit above the €12.22 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €1.86, and 21 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Fincantieri SpA generated revenue of €8.9B at a net margin of 1.4%. Revenue declined 7.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.8%. Net debt stands at €1.7B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €3.82 (bear case) to €12.71 (bull case); at €12.22, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −34%, FCT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.3587 per share, which is 4.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€9.57) versus Dividend Discount (€0.7100). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Fincantieri S.p.A. operates in the shipbuilding industry worldwide. It operates through four segments: Shipbuilding; Offshore and Specialized Vessels; Underwater; and Equipment, Systems, and Infrastructure.
Full company description
Fincantieri S.p.A. operates in the shipbuilding industry worldwide. It operates through four segments: Shipbuilding; Offshore and Specialized Vessels; Underwater; and Equipment, Systems, and Infrastructure. The company designs and constructs cruise ships, submarines, offshore support vessels, specialized vessels, and offshore wind plant vessels, as well as semi-submersible drilling ships and platforms products; cable-laying vessels and ferries; unmanned vessels; expedition cruise vessels; and aircraft carriers, destroyers, frigates, corvettes, patrol vessels, amphibious and logistic support ships, multirole and research vessels, and special vessels. It also provides product lifecycle management, and training and assistance services; cabins, wet units, public areas, catering, glazing, and interior design solutions; and ship repairs, refitting, conversions, and refurbishment services, as well as products that reduce environmental impact. In addition, the company offers technologies in the field of effectors, acoustic sensors, unmanned, radar, advanced communication systems, and top-side systems of autonomous vessels. Further, it provides electrical, and electronic and electromechanical integrated systems; stabilization, propulsion, positioning, and power generation systems; and steam turbines, as well as designs and integrates systems on automation, cyber security, telecommunications, and critical infrastructures and designs, constructs, and assembles bridges, viaducts, airports, ports, maritime/hydraulic works, large commercial and industrial buildings, and facility management. Additionally, the company provides dry-dock management; engineering, project, and supply chain management; IT consultancy; mechanical products sale and after-sale; marine diesel engine maintenance; technological research and development; ship accommodation services; and charters boats, ships, and barges. Fincantieri S.p.A. was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Trieste, Italy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Fincantieri SpA reported revenue of €9.2B in FY2025 versus €6.8B in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was €123M in FY2025, compounding +54.2%/yr from FY2021.
FCT screens 52% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Fincantieri SpA (FNCNF) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Profits and Strategic Growth ...
- Assessing Fincantieri (BIT:FCT) Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness
- Fincantieri to Build Spectre, a New Class of High-Speed Unmanned Surface Vessel
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 229 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $335.71 | $116.71 | −65% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $212.08 | $88.37 | −58% |
| Airbus SE AIR | €213.00 | €117.01 | −45% |
| Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT | $565.89 | $419.01 | −26% |
| Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM | $264.85 | $50.43 | −81% |
| General Dynamics Corporation GD | $379.32 | $274.32 | −28% |
| Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC | $545.57 | $356.59 | −35% |
| TransDigm Group TDG | $1,235 | $571.03 | −54% |
| L3Harris Technologies, Inc LHX | $262.82 | $146.55 | −44% |
| Thales S.A HO | €243.70 | €171.13 | −30% |
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