Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 1.7B GBX · ISIN GB00B1CKQ739
What is Dunelm Group PLC really worth?
A solid business, trading 43% below our fair value of £15.58.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −1.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (71/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (£9.97). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- A fairly wide model range (£9.97 to £20.96) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £4.98 – £11.56 · fair‑value band £9.97 – £20.96 · the £8.83 price screens below the £15.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM) currently trades at £8.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £15.58, implying the stock looks roughly 43.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £16.00 per share, and 19 of the 26 models we run sit above the £8.83 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at £2.19, and 7 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Dunelm Group PLC generated revenue of £1.8B at a net margin of 8.3%. Revenue grew 3.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 86.1%. Net debt stands at £348M. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £9.97 (bear case) to £20.96 (bull case); at £8.83, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 77%, DNLM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly £0.2900 per share, which is 1.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (£16.00) versus Asset-Based (£0.3900). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Dunelm Group plc engages in the retail of homewares in the United Kingdom. The company offers furniture and beds products, which include bedroom, living room, dining room, and other furniture, as well as bed and mattresses, and sofas and armchairs; bedding products comprising bed linen, dorma, baby and kid's bedding, duvets, pillows, and protectors; …
Full company description
Dunelm Group plc engages in the retail of homewares in the United Kingdom. The company offers furniture and beds products, which include bedroom, living room, dining room, and other furniture, as well as bed and mattresses, and sofas and armchairs; bedding products comprising bed linen, dorma, baby and kid's bedding, duvets, pillows, and protectors; curtains; rugs; and venetian, roller, roman, vertical, and made to measure blinds. It also offers range of home decor products, such as wall art and décor, mirrors, clocks, ornaments, pictures and frames, candle and home fragrance, flower and plants, vases, decorative trays and bowls, kid's decor, coffee table books, plant pots, cushions, throws, draught excluders, fireplace extras, and bean bags, as well as housewarming, engagement, personalised, anniversary, wedding gifts, and gift cards; and lighting products, including ceiling lights, lamp shades, table lamps, floor lamps, wall lights, chandeliers, led lighting, bathroom lighting, outdoor lighting, kids lighting, string lights, lamp bases, picture lights, and cabinet lights, as well as light bulbs, light switches, pendant flex cables, electrical and wiring accessories. In addition, the company provides kitchen and utility products comprising cooking, dining, electrical, utility, and pet products; bathroom accessories; storage products, such as travel and luggage, home, clothes and shoe, storage furniture, and food storage; kids bedroom, furniture, nursery, and accessories products; and Christmas products, including trees, decoration, and gifts; and loungewear's, meal prepping's, and winter laundry products. Further, it offers wallpaper, paint, DIY and upcycling, and decorating tools and supplies. It operates through a network of stores, as well as sells its products through an online store. The company was founded in 1979 and is based in Syston, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Dunelm Group PLC reported revenue of £1.8B in FY2025 versus £1.3B in FY2021, a compound +7.3%/yr. Reported net income was £156M in FY2025, compounding +4.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +8.5 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Dunelm Group (LSE:DNLM) Stock Sees Split Analyst Revisions As UK Consumer Data Softens
- How The Dunelm Group (LSE:DNLM) Narrative Is Shifting As Analysts Reassess Valuation
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 219 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc ATD | C$89.93 | C$104.32 | +16% |
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $755.47 | $398.90 | −47% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $235.09 | $162.63 | −31% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $537.10 | $475.40 | −11% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $202.66 | $181.10 | −11% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $82.44 | $108.04 | +31% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥54.97 | ¥40.40 | −27% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $34.72 | $35.52 | +2% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $259.41 | $117.29 | −55% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $574.12 | $423.35 | −26% |
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