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DraftKings Inc (DKNG) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $12.4B · ISIN US26142V1052

What is DraftKings Inc really worth?

DI DraftKings Inc logo DraftKings Inc DKNG · US
Price$24.19
Fair Value$0.7500
Upside−96.9% ⚠
Quality62/100

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

A solid business, but trading 3,126% above our fair value of $0.7500.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +58.0 %/yr)

Risks

!Thin margins · 0.9% net margin
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/15)
!Narrow moat 33/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 10 out of 100
Evidence: Low Range $0.7500 – $0.7500

Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Share price +2.5% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.7500). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$63.67 $10.27 Fair Value $0.7500 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $10.27 – $63.67 · the $24.19 price screens above the $0.7500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

DraftKings Inc (DKNG) currently trades at $24.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.7500, implying the stock looks roughly 3,125.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $2.05 per share, and 4 of the 23 models we run sit above the $24.19 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $0.1600, and 19 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, DraftKings Inc generated revenue of $6.3B at a net margin of 0.9%. Revenue grew 16.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. Net debt stands at $330M. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −97%, DKNG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.0609 per share, which is 8.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely ($0.1300 to $40.54). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income $0.8600 $0.8100 $0.5700 74
FCF DCF $21.50 $34.10 $74.21 73
Growth DCF $20.19 $40.54 $73.88 72
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $21.50 $34.10 $74.21 73
Owner Earnings $7.88 $18.53 $40.89 68
5Y Revenue Exit $13.84 $23.39 $43.31 67
5Y EBITDA Exit $9.10 $13.81 $22.94 71
5Y P/E Exit $5.64 $7.99 $10.31 69
10Y Revenue Exit $15.86 $33.27 $43.67 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $12.87 $23.07 $38.86 64
10Y P/E Exit $10.34 $15.61 $22.20 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.0500 $0.3500 $0.5000 61
Lynch FV $0.1800 $0.2600 $0.3400 59
PEG = 1.0 $0.1800 $0.2600 $0.3400 55
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $1.17 $2.43 $3.86 64
DDM Multi-Stage $1.17 $2.05 $2.55 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple $0.1200 $0.1600 $0.2100 63
P/S Multiple $0.1000 $0.1300 $0.1600 58
P/B Multiple $0.1000 $0.1300 $0.1600 55
EV/EBITDA $4.24 $5.82 $7.39 67
EV/Revenue $9.79 $14.18 $18.57 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.6400 $0.8500 $1.27 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $20.19 $40.54 $73.88 72
Rev-Margin DCF $15.28 $26.84 $51.11 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income $0.8600 $0.8100 $0.5700 74
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $0.2400 $0.3500 $0.4500 65

Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($26.84) versus Multiples ($0.1600). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 268.8
P/S ratio 0.16 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.0900 price ÷ EPS = P/E 268.8
Dividend yield 0.5% payout 135%
Net margin 0.1% FY2025
Return on equity 7.9% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) −22.1% avg 5y
Operating margin 0.4% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $6.3B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +16.8% 3y avg +39.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +185%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $648M FY2025
Net debt $330M FY2025 · ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17

Profitability 50
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 96
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 75
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 29
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 14
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 25
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 45
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

DraftKings Inc. operates as a digital sports entertainment and gaming company in the United States and internationally. The company offers online and retail sports betting, daily fantasy sports, digital lottery couriers, prediction markets, and other products, as well as retails sportsbooks.

Full company description

DraftKings Inc. operates as a digital sports entertainment and gaming company in the United States and internationally. The company offers online and retail sports betting, daily fantasy sports, digital lottery couriers, prediction markets, and other products, as well as retails sportsbooks. It also provides iGaming, or online casino products, which includes blackjack, roulette, baccarat and slot machines. In addition, the company engages in the design and development of sports betting and casino gaming software for online and retail sportsbooks, and iGaming operators. DraftKings Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

DraftKings Inc reported revenue of $6.1B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound +47.0%/yr. Reported net income was $3.7M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$6.1B
Latest YoY
+27.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+39.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+58.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (8Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+54.0%
Value creation/yr ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Revenue +47.0%/yr
FY21 $1.3B
FY22 $2.2B
FY23 $3.7B
FY24 $4.8B
FY25 $6.1B
Net income
FY21 −$1.5B
FY22 −$1.4B
FY23 −$802M
FY24 −$507M
FY25 $3.7M

DKNG screens 3,126% overvalued. Compare with Flutter Entertainment plc →

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DraftKings Inc · Fair Value
$0.7500 −3126%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "DraftKings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DKNG

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Gambling · 54 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 62 · Above median
Fair Value upside −97% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 17% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.5% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 2.91× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Gambling median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 268.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 19.59× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.97× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 19.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 38.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 0.10× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 27
FUTURE84 · sector 9
PAST32 · sector 26
HEALTH0 · sector 89
DIVIDEND10 · sector 50

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 42/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Gambling

Similar stocks

10 more Gambling stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Flutter Entertainment plc FLUT $98.08 $88.33 −10%
Evolution AB EVO kr 832.60 kr 982.64 +18%
The Lottery Corporation TLC A$5.36 A$2.99 −44%
Rush Street Interactive, Inc RSI $26.05 $3.10 −88%
Super Group SGHC $13.95 $9.39 −33%
Light & Wonder, Inc LNWO $89.75 $77.19 −14%
Lottomatica Group LTMC €25.59 €16.45 −36%
Churchill Downs Incorporated CHDN $86.65 $88.74 +2%
FDJ United FDJ €22.33 €20.97 −6%
Brightstar Lottery PLC BRSL $11.31 $17.61 +56%

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Frequently asked questions

Is DraftKings Inc (DKNG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.7500 versus a price of $24.19, about −97% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DKNG?
Our model-based fair value for DraftKings Inc is $0.7500 (as of Sep 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $24.19.
What is the quality score of DKNG?
DraftKings Inc has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of DraftKings Inc (DKNG)?
DraftKings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 2, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of DKNG?
The net profit margin of DraftKings Inc is about 0.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does DraftKings Inc pay a dividend?
DraftKings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.50% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 2, 2026).
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