DraftKings Inc (DKNG) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $12.4B

DraftKings Inc DKNG · US

Price$25.42

Fair Value$0.7500

Upside-97.1%

Quality63/100

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Healthy Growth

Thin margins · 0.9% net margin

High debt · generates free cash flow

Trails peers (4/14)

Narrow moat 33/100

Evidence: High Range $0.7500 – $0.7500 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price +0.8% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 97% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.7500). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $10.27 – $63.67 · the $25.42 price screens above the $0.7500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

DraftKings Inc (DKNG) currently trades at $25.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.7500, implying the stock looks roughly 97.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, DraftKings Inc generated revenue of $6.3B at a net margin of 0.9%. Revenue grew 16.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. Net debt stands at $330M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -10% fair-value upside, at -97%, DKNG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely ($0.1300 to $40.54). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

Growth DCF $20.19 $40.54 $73.88 80

Residual Income $0.8600 $0.8100 $0.5700 76

Rev-Margin DCF $15.28 $26.84 $51.11 74

All 23 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF $21.50 $34.10 $74.21 38

Owner Earnings $7.88 $18.53 $40.89 31

5Y Revenue Exit $13.84 $23.39 $43.31 39

5Y EBITDA Exit $9.10 $13.81 $22.94 41

5Y P/E Exit $5.64 $7.99 $10.31 38

10Y Revenue Exit $15.86 $33.27 $43.67 36

10Y EBITDA Exit $12.87 $23.07 $38.86 37

10Y P/E Exit $10.34 $15.61 $22.20 35

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $0.0500 $0.3500 $0.5000 54

Lynch FV $0.1800 $0.2600 $0.3400 50

PEG = 1.0 $0.1800 $0.2600 $0.3400 46

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $1.17 $2.43 $3.86 70

DDM Multi-Stage $1.17 $2.05 $2.55 61

Multiples

P/E Multiple $0.1200 $0.1600 $0.2100 63

P/S Multiple $0.1000 $0.1300 $0.1600 58

P/B Multiple $0.1000 $0.1300 $0.1600 55

EV/EBITDA $4.24 $5.82 $7.39 54

EV/Revenue $9.79 $14.18 $18.57 43

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $0.6400 $0.8500 $1.27 50

Growth DCF

Growth DCF $20.19 $40.54 $73.88 80

Rev-Margin DCF $15.28 $26.84 $51.11 74

Economic Profit

Residual Income $0.8600 $0.8100 $0.5700 76

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $0.2400 $0.3500 $0.4500 68

Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($26.84) versus Multiples ($0.1600). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $6.3B

Revenue growth (YoY) +16.8%

Net margin 0.9%

Return on equity 7.9%

Free cash flow $648M FY2025

P/E ratio 282.4

More key figures

Operating margin 0.4%

EPS (TTM) $0.0900

EPS growth (YoY) +185%

Net debt $330M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 19

Profitability 50

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 96

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 75

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 29

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 94

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 15

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 28

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 9

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 45

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Full company description

DraftKings Inc. operates as a digital sports entertainment and gaming company in the United States and internationally. The company offers online and retail sports betting, daily fantasy sports, digital lottery couriers, prediction markets, and other products, as well as retails sportsbooks. It also provides iGaming, or online casino products, which includes blackjack, roulette, baccarat and slot machines. In addition, the company engages in the design and development of sports betting and casino gaming software for online and retail sportsbooks, and iGaming operators. DraftKings Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

DraftKings Inc reported revenue of $6.1B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound +47.0%/yr. Reported net income was $3.7M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 90/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

$6.1B

Latest YoY

+27.0%

Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+39.3%

Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+58.0%

Avg. growth/yr (8Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+54.0%

Revenue +47.0%/yr

FY21 $1.3B

FY22 $2.2B

FY23 $3.7B

FY24 $4.8B

FY25 $6.1B

Net income

FY21 −$1.5B

FY22 −$1.4B

FY23 −$802M

FY24 −$507M

FY25 $3.7M

DKNG screens 97% overvalued. Compare with Flutter Entertainment plc →

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DraftKings Inc · Fair Value
$0.7500 −97%Fair Value
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<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DKNG" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">DraftKings Inc · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$0.7500</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−97%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "DraftKings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DKNG

Peer Group

Gambling · 57 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 63 · Above median

Fair Value upside −97% · Bottom 25%

Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median

Return on assets 1% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Bottom 25%

Revenue growth 17% · Top 25%

Debt / equity 2.91× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Gambling median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 282.4× · Pricier than 75% of peers

P/B 19.59× · Pricier than 75% of peers

P/S (TTM) 1.97× · Pricier than median

P/FCF 19.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers

EV/EBITDA 38.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers

PEG 0.10× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 33

FUTURE 84 · sector 5

PAST 32 · sector 24

HEALTH 0 · sector 90

DIVIDEND 0 · sector 70

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 54/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Gambling

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is DraftKings Inc (DKNG) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.7500 versus a price of $25.42, about −97% (overvalued).

What is the fair value of DKNG?

Our model-based fair value for DraftKings Inc is $0.7500 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $25.42.

What is the quality score of DKNG?

DraftKings Inc has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the revenue of DraftKings Inc (DKNG)?

DraftKings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.3B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of DKNG?

The net profit margin of DraftKings Inc is about 0.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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