Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$7.9B (≈ $5.7B) · ISIN AU000000CMM9
What is Capricorn Metals Ltd really worth?
A solid business, but trading 222% above our fair value of A$5.05.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 28, 2026, revised from A$5.59 to A$5.05 (−9.7%) since Aug 14, 2026. Share price +14.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$8.94). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (A$3.85 to A$8.94) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.75 – A$17.78 · fair‑value band A$3.85 – A$8.94 · the A$16.25 price screens above the A$5.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
Analysis
Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM) currently trades at A$16.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$5.05, implying the stock looks roughly 221.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$14.16 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$16.25 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$1.15, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Capricorn Metals Ltd generated revenue of A$647M at a net margin of 35.9%. Revenue grew 62.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$324M. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$3.85 (bear case) to A$8.94 (bull case); at A$16.25, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 86% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −69%, CMM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly A$0.4900 per share, which is 9.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$14.16) versus Asset-Based (A$1.15). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Capricorn Metals Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, explores, develops, evaluates, and produces gold in Australia. It operates through the Karlawinda Gold Project and the Mt Gibson Gold Project segments.
Full company description
Capricorn Metals Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, explores, develops, evaluates, and produces gold in Australia. It operates through the Karlawinda Gold Project and the Mt Gibson Gold Project segments. The company holds 100% interest in the Karlawinda gold project located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia; and the Mt Gibson Gold Project located in the Murchison region of Western Australia. It also operates commercial properties. The company was formerly known as Malagasy Minerals Limited and changed its name to Capricorn Metals Limited in February 2016. Capricorn Metals Ltd was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in West Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Capricorn Metals Ltd reported revenue of A$518M in FY2025 versus A$110K in FY2021, a compound +728.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$150M in FY2025.
CMM screens 222% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →
Peer Group
Gold · 245 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $128.00 | $112.82 | −12% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥32.21 | ¥39.42 | +22% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$268.76 | C$213.40 | −21% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $41.23 | $50.66 | +23% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | $271.31 | $96.63 | −64% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$201.40 | C$56.05 | −72% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $97.92 | $88.63 | −9% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $32.51 | $34.62 | +6% |
| Royal Gold, Inc RGLD | $262.85 | $93.56 | −64% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$23.19 | A$15.98 | −31% |
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