Commerce Bancshares Inc (CBSH) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $8.5B · ISIN US2005251036
What is Commerce Bancshares Inc really worth?
Commerce Bancshares Inc
CBSH · US
A solid business, but trading 35% above our fair value of $43.25.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −2.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($54.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $35.52 – $65.21 · fair‑value band $32.44 – $54.06 · the $58.37 price screens above the $43.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
Commerce Bancshares Inc (CBSH) currently trades at $58.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $43.25, implying the stock looks roughly 35.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $36.89 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $58.37 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $13.38, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Commerce Bancshares Inc generated revenue of $1.8B at a net margin of 32.3%. Revenue grew 17.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.9%. Net debt stands at $2.2B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $32.44 (bear case) to $54.06 (bull case); at $58.37, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −26%, CBSH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.40 per share, which is 5.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($36.89) versus Dividend Discount ($13.38). Highest evidence: Residual Income (68).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Commerce Bank that provides retail, mortgage banking, corporate, investment, trust, and asset management products and services to individuals and businesses in the United States. It operates through three segments: Retail Banking, Commercial, and Wealth.
Full company description
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Commerce Bank that provides retail, mortgage banking, corporate, investment, trust, and asset management products and services to individuals and businesses in the United States. It operates through three segments: Retail Banking, Commercial, and Wealth. The Retail Banking segment offers various banking products and services, including consumer deposits; consumer loans, such as automobile, motorcycle, marine, tractor/trailer, recreational vehicle, fixed rate and revolving home equity, and other consumer loans; patient health care financing; real estate loans; indirect and other consumer financing; retail branch network; personal mortgage banking; consumer installment lending; and consumer debit and credit bank cards. The Commercial segment provides corporate lending, leasing, international, merchant and commercial bank card, and securities safekeeping and bond accounting services; and business products, government deposits, and related commercial cash management services, as well as sells fixed income securities to correspondent banks, corporations, public institutions, municipalities, and individuals. The Wealth segment provides traditional trust and estate planning, advisory and discretionary investment portfolio management, and brokerage services, as well as private banking accounts. The company offers private equity investment, securities brokerage, insurance agency, specialty lending, and leasing services, as well as online and mobile banking services. Commerce Bancshares, Inc. was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Commerce Bancshares Inc reported revenue of $2.1B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +10.4%/yr. Reported net income was $566M in FY2025, compounding +1.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.0 % · buybacks/dilution +0.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CBSH screens 35% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) Stock Looks Like A Bargain On Cash Flow But Full On Earnings
- Commerce Bancshares declares $0.275 dividend
- Commerce Bancshares, Inc. Declares Cash Dividend on Common Stock
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1071 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DBS Group D05 | 75.65 SGD | 40.48 SGD | −46% |
| China Merchants Bank Co 3968 | HK$47.96 | HK$76.51 | +60% |
| Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP | €6.78 | €5.66 | −17% |
| HDFC Bank Limited HDB | $23.17 | $24.12 | +4% |
| BNP Paribas SA BNP | €102.56 | €144.64 | +41% |
| UniCredit S.p.A UCG | €84.71 | €77.62 | −8% |
| Mizuho Financial Group MFG | $10.74 | $9.69 | −10% |
| ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK | ₹1,443 | ₹835.21 | −42% |
| Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 | 31.07 SGD | 19.80 SGD | −36% |
| CaixaBank, S.A CABK | €13.52 | €8.85 | −35% |
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