BPER Banca SpA (BPE) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · IT · Market cap €30.7B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +4.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 34% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€11.94). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.01 – €14.83 · fair‑value band €7.17 – €11.94 · the €14.46 price screens above the €9.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
BPER Banca SpA (BPE) currently trades at €14.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €9.55, implying the stock looks roughly 33.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, BPER Banca SpA generated revenue of €6.3B at a net margin of 30.2%. Revenue grew 24.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.1%. Net debt stands at €11.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €7.17 (bear case) to €11.94 (bull case); at €14.46, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 112% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at -34%, BPE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€11.13) versus Asset-Based (€5.33). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 86
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
BPER Banca SpA engages in the provision of banking products and services for individuals, and businesses and professionals in Italy and internationally. It offers current and saving accounts, loans, mortgages, insurance and social security, and digital banking and related services; cards; and investments and savings products and services.
Full company description
BPER Banca SpA engages in the provision of banking products and services for individuals, and businesses and professionals in Italy and internationally. It offers current and saving accounts, loans, mortgages, insurance and social security, and digital banking and related services; cards; and investments and savings products and services. The company also provides financing and leasing, collection and payment, import and export, liquidity and investment management, digital, and other services. In addition, it offers wealth management services comprising portfolio management, consultancy, financial advice, and wealth advisory services; insurance investment products; and funds and SICAVs. The company was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Modena, Italy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
BPER Banca SpA reported revenue of €7.0B in FY2025 versus €3.7B in FY2021, a compound +17.5%/yr. Reported net income was €1.8B in FY2025, compounding +36.4%/yr from FY2021.
BPE screens 34% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Unipol seeks over 30% of future BPER-MPS business – report
- BPER Banca SpA (BPXXY) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Profit and Raised Targets ...
- BPER Banca Q4 profit beats by 32% as core revenue gains offset dividend miss
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1086 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,350 IDR | 4,637 IDR | -27% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 168,100 KRW | 220,258 KRW | +31% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 3,110 IDR | 3,792 IDR | +22% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,130 IDR | 6,067 IDR | +47% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 8,400 ARS | +64% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 103,800 KRW | 146,032 KRW | +41% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 127,900 KRW | 210,506 KRW | +65% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,500 VND | 45,959 VND | -23% |
| Woori Financial Group 316140 | 33,000 KRW | 60,758 KRW | +84% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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