BPER Banca SpA (BPE) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · IT · Market cap €30.7B · ISIN IT0000066123
What is BPER Banca SpA really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 57% above our fair value of €9.10.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price −3.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€11.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.01 – €14.83 · fair‑value band €6.83 – €11.36 · the €14.27 price screens above the €9.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
BPER Banca SpA (BPE) currently trades at €14.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €9.10, implying the stock looks roughly 56.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €11.13 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the €14.27 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €5.33, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, BPER Banca SpA generated revenue of €6.3B at a net margin of 30.2%. Revenue grew 24.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.1%. Net debt stands at €11.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €6.83 (bear case) to €11.36 (bull case); at €14.27, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 109% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −36%, BPE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.2650 per share, which is 2.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€11.13) versus Asset-Based (€5.33). Highest evidence: Residual Income (73).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
BPER Banca SpA engages in the provision of banking products and services for individuals, and businesses and professionals in Italy and internationally. It offers current and saving accounts, loans, mortgages, insurance and social security, and digital banking and related services; cards; and investments and savings products and services.
Full company description
BPER Banca SpA engages in the provision of banking products and services for individuals, and businesses and professionals in Italy and internationally. It offers current and saving accounts, loans, mortgages, insurance and social security, and digital banking and related services; cards; and investments and savings products and services. The company also provides financing and leasing, collection and payment, import and export, liquidity and investment management, digital, and other services. In addition, it offers wealth management services comprising portfolio management, consultancy, financial advice, and wealth advisory services; insurance investment products; and funds and SICAVs. The company was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Modena, Italy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
BPER Banca SpA reported revenue of €7.0B in FY2025 versus €3.7B in FY2021, a compound +17.5%/yr. Reported net income was €1.8B in FY2025, compounding +36.4%/yr from FY2021.
BPE screens 57% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Unipol seeks over 30% of future BPER-MPS business – report
- BPER Banca SpA (BPXXY) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Profit and Raised Targets ...
- BPER Banca Q4 profit beats by 32% as core revenue gains offset dividend miss
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1071 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DBS Group D05 | 75.65 SGD | 40.48 SGD | −46% |
| China Merchants Bank Co 3968 | HK$47.96 | HK$76.51 | +60% |
| Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP | €6.78 | €5.66 | −17% |
| HDFC Bank Limited HDB | $23.17 | $24.12 | +4% |
| BNP Paribas SA BNP | €102.56 | €144.64 | +41% |
| UniCredit S.p.A UCG | €84.71 | €77.62 | −8% |
| Mizuho Financial Group MFG | $10.74 | $9.69 | −10% |
| ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK | ₹1,443 | ₹835.21 | −42% |
| Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 | 31.07 SGD | 19.80 SGD | −36% |
| CaixaBank, S.A CABK | €13.52 | €8.85 | −35% |
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