Banca Mediolanum SpA (BMED) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · IT · Market cap €17.9B · ISIN IT0004776628
What is Banca Mediolanum SpA really worth?
A solid business, but trading 56% above our fair value of €15.11.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from €21.77 to €15.11 (−30.6%) since Jul 25, 2026. Share price −2.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€18.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €4.48 – €24.42 · fair‑value band €11.33 – €18.89 · the €23.62 price screens above the €15.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Banca Mediolanum SpA (BMED) currently trades at €23.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €15.11, implying the stock looks roughly 56.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of €19.76 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the €23.62 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €4.06, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Banca Mediolanum SpA generated revenue of €2.4B at a net margin of 52.1%. Revenue grew 6.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 27.8%. Net debt stands at €1.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €11.33 (bear case) to €18.89 (bull case); at €23.62, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 82% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −36%, BMED screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.3722 per share, which is 2.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (€19.76) versus Asset-Based (€4.06). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (64).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 86
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Banca Mediolanum S.p.A. engages in the provision of various banking products and services in Italy. It offers current accounts; deposits products; and mortgage and personal loans.
Full company description
Banca Mediolanum S.p.A. engages in the provision of various banking products and services in Italy. It offers current accounts; deposits products; and mortgage and personal loans. The company also provides credit cards, debit cards, and prepaid cards; investment products, such as mutual funds, unit linked policies, investment strategies, trading services, asset management services, social security, and bond issues and certificates; and insurance policies, including health and personal, life, serious illness, and autonomy protection, as well as protection assistance, and home and family protection. In addition, it offers SelfyCare Pet for reimbursement of veterinary expenses; SelfyCare Travel for assistance and coverage for risks arising during trips; and SelfyCare LifeProject for a specific life project. Banca Mediolanum S.p.A. founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Basiglio, Italy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Banca Mediolanum SpA reported revenue of €2.4B in FY2025 versus €5.7B in FY2021, a compound −19.2%/yr. Reported net income was €1.2B in FY2025, compounding +14.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −9.3 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
BMED screens 56% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Banca Mediolanum (BNCDY) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Net Income Surges 16% on ...
- Banca Mediolanum (BNCDY) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Net Income and Strategic ...
- Banca Mediolanum (BNCDY) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Growth in Net Income and ...
- Is Now the Right Moment for Banca Mediolanum Shares After a 72% Rally?
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1071 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DBS Group D05 | 75.65 SGD | 40.48 SGD | −46% |
| China Merchants Bank Co 3968 | HK$47.96 | HK$76.51 | +60% |
| Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP | €6.78 | €5.66 | −17% |
| HDFC Bank Limited HDB | $23.17 | $24.12 | +4% |
| BNP Paribas SA BNP | €102.56 | €144.64 | +41% |
| UniCredit S.p.A UCG | €84.71 | €77.62 | −8% |
| Mizuho Financial Group MFG | $10.74 | $9.69 | −10% |
| ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK | ₹1,443 | ₹835.21 | −42% |
| Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 | 31.07 SGD | 19.80 SGD | −36% |
| CaixaBank, S.A CABK | €13.52 | €8.85 | −35% |
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