Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · PT · Market cap €15.2B · ISIN PTBCP0AM0015
What is Banco Comercial Portugues really worth?
A solid business, but trading 43% above our fair value of €0.8050.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€1.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €0.1029 – €1.15 · fair‑value band €0.6000 – €1.01 · the €1.15 price screens above the €0.8050 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Banco Comercial Portugues (BCP) currently trades at €1.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €0.8050, implying the stock looks roughly 42.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €0.7400 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the €1.15 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €0.3500, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Banco Comercial Portugues generated revenue of €3.7B at a net margin of 29.3%. Revenue grew 11.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.6%. Net debt stands at €2.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €0.6000 (bear case) to €1.01 (bull case); at €1.15, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −30%, BCP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.0241 per share, which is 3.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€0.7400) versus Asset-Based (€0.3500). Highest evidence: Residual Income (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 87
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Banco Comercial Português, S.A. engages in the provision of various banking and financial products and services in Portugal and internationally. The company operates through Retail Banking; Companies and Corporate; Private Banking; International Business, and Other segments.
Full company description
Banco Comercial Português, S.A. engages in the provision of various banking and financial products and services in Portugal and internationally. The company operates through Retail Banking; Companies and Corporate; Private Banking; International Business, and Other segments. It offers a range of financial products and services, including current accounts, payment systems, savings and investment products, private banking, asset management, and investment banking services, such as mortgage loans, personal loans, commercial banking, leasing, factoring, insurance, and other products. The company is also involved in the provision of investment fund and real estate management, e-commerce, web portal, leasing, consulting, brokerage, marketing, and real estate investment fund management services; and internet, telephone, and mobile banking services as well as buying and selling real estate. In addition, it offers credit, debit, and prepaid cards; personal, mortgage, car loan, and salary loan; health, car, life, travel, personal accident, home, pet, work accident, payment protection, and transportation and repatriation insurance; retirement services; structured products, discretionary management, investment funds, and other technology and services. Further, the company provides short, medium, and long term financing solutions; internacional operations financing; and treasury services. Banco Comercial Português, S.A. was incorporated in 1985 and is based in Porto, Portugal.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Banco Comercial Portugues reported revenue of €3.9B in FY2025 versus €2.5B in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was €1.0B in FY2025, compounding +64.8%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
of which total revenue −1.4 % · buybacks/dilution −25.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
BCP screens 43% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Banco Comercial Portugues SA (BPCGY) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Net Income Surges 12. ...
- First BanCorp (FBP) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates
- Banco Comercial Portugues (BPCGY) Moves 6.1% Higher: Will This Strength Last?
- Banco Comercial Portugues (BPCGY) Surges 11.2%: Is This an Indication of Further Gains?
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1071 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DBS Group D05 | 75.65 SGD | 40.48 SGD | −46% |
| China Merchants Bank Co 3968 | HK$47.96 | HK$76.51 | +60% |
| Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP | €6.78 | €5.66 | −17% |
| HDFC Bank Limited HDB | $23.17 | $24.12 | +4% |
| BNP Paribas SA BNP | €102.56 | €144.64 | +41% |
| UniCredit S.p.A UCG | €84.71 | €77.62 | −8% |
| Mizuho Financial Group MFG | $10.74 | $9.69 | −10% |
| ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK | ₹1,443 | ₹835.21 | −42% |
| Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 | 31.07 SGD | 19.80 SGD | −36% |
| CaixaBank, S.A CABK | €13.52 | €8.85 | −35% |
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