Avanza Bank Holding (AZA) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · SE · Market cap 60.2B SEK
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from kr 216.71 to kr 143.14 (−33.9%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +1.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 64% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 178.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 130.78 – kr 402.20 · fair‑value band kr 107.36 – kr 178.93 · the kr 401.40 price screens above the kr 143.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Avanza Bank Holding (AZA) currently trades at kr 401.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 143.14, implying the stock looks roughly 64.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Avanza Bank Holding generated revenue of 5.1B SEK at a net margin of 52.7%. Revenue grew 9.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 12.3B SEK. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 107.36 (bear case) to kr 178.93 (bull case); at kr 401.40, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at -64%, AZA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (kr 172.15) versus Asset-Based (kr 33.66). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides various savings, pension, and mortgages products in Sweden. It offers share and fund, investment savings, endowment insurance, savings, endowment child insurance, external deposit, and pension insurance accounts, as well as occupational pensions and individual pension plans.
Full company description
Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides various savings, pension, and mortgages products in Sweden. It offers share and fund, investment savings, endowment insurance, savings, endowment child insurance, external deposit, and pension insurance accounts, as well as occupational pensions and individual pension plans. The company also trades in equities, funds, and other securities; and provides external and green mortgages, private banking mortgages, margin loans, and stock lending products. In addition, it offers decision support services and others; and publishes topical news and independent advice on the financial website, Placera, as well as on the weekly financial magazine, Börsveckan. The company primarily serves individual and professional investors, and corporate customers, such as entrepreneurs, asset managers, and occupational pension customers. Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Avanza Bank Holding reported revenue of kr 5.7B in FY2025 versus kr 3.4B in FY2021, a compound +13.9%/yr. Reported net income was kr 2.6B in FY2025, compounding +6.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +21.1 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.9 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
AZA screens 64% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Avanza Bank Holding AB (STU:1JJA) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Profits and ...
- Avanza Bank Holding AB (FRA:1JJA) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Profits and ...
- Avanza Bank Holding AB (FRA:1JJA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Results Amid Market ...
- Avanza Bank Holding AB (FRA:1JJA) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Operating Profit and ...
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1086 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,350 IDR | 4,637 IDR | -27% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 168,100 KRW | 220,258 KRW | +31% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 3,110 IDR | 3,792 IDR | +22% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,130 IDR | 6,067 IDR | +47% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 8,400 ARS | +64% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 103,800 KRW | 146,032 KRW | +41% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 127,900 KRW | 210,506 KRW | +65% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,500 VND | 45,959 VND | -23% |
| Woori Financial Group 316140 | 33,000 KRW | 60,758 KRW | +84% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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