Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · SE · Market cap 60.2B SEK (≈ $6.3B) · ISIN SE0012454072
What is Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) really worth?
A solid business, but trading 178% above our fair value of kr 143.14.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated today
Share price −0.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 178.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 130.78 – kr 408.30 · fair‑value band kr 107.36 – kr 178.93 · the kr 397.50 price screens above the kr 143.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA) currently trades at kr 397.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 143.14, implying the stock looks roughly 177.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of kr 172.15 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the kr 397.50 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 33.66, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) generated revenue of 5.1B SEK at a net margin of 52.7%. Revenue grew 9.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 12.3B SEK. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 107.36 (bear case) to kr 178.93 (bull case); at kr 397.50, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −64%, AZA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly kr 2.52 per share, which is 1.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (kr 172.15) versus Asset-Based (kr 33.66). Highest evidence: Residual Income (64).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides various savings, pension, and mortgages products in Sweden. It offers share and fund, investment savings, endowment insurance, savings, endowment child insurance, external deposit, and pension insurance accounts, as well as occupational pensions and individual pension plans.
Full company description
Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides various savings, pension, and mortgages products in Sweden. It offers share and fund, investment savings, endowment insurance, savings, endowment child insurance, external deposit, and pension insurance accounts, as well as occupational pensions and individual pension plans. The company also trades in equities, funds, and other securities; and provides external and green mortgages, private banking mortgages, margin loans, and stock lending products. In addition, it offers decision support services and others; and publishes topical news and independent advice on the financial website, Placera, as well as on the weekly financial magazine, Börsveckan. The company primarily serves individual and professional investors, and corporate customers, such as entrepreneurs, asset managers, and occupational pension customers. Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) reported revenue of 5.7B SEK in FY2025 versus 3.4B SEK in FY2021, a compound +13.9%/yr. Reported net income was 2.6B SEK in FY2025, compounding +6.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +21.1 % · buybacks/dilution −0.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
AZA screens 178% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Avanza Bank Holding AB (STU:1JJA) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Profits and ...
- Avanza Bank Holding AB (FRA:1JJA) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Profits and ...
- Avanza Bank Holding AB (FRA:1JJA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Results Amid Market ...
- Avanza Bank Holding AB (FRA:1JJA) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Operating Profit and ...
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1071 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DBS Group D05 | 75.65 SGD | 40.48 SGD | −46% |
| China Merchants Bank Co 3968 | HK$47.96 | HK$76.51 | +60% |
| Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP | €6.78 | €5.66 | −17% |
| HDFC Bank Limited HDB | $23.17 | $24.12 | +4% |
| BNP Paribas SA BNP | €102.56 | €144.64 | +41% |
| UniCredit S.p.A UCG | €84.71 | €77.62 | −8% |
| Mizuho Financial Group MFG | $10.74 | $9.69 | −10% |
| ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK | ₹1,443 | ₹835.21 | −42% |
| Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 | 31.07 SGD | 19.80 SGD | −36% |
| CaixaBank, S.A CABK | €13.52 | €8.85 | −35% |
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