Axon Enterprise, Inc (AXON) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $41.1B
Axon Enterprise, Inc
AXON · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated today
Share price +12.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 96% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($27.99). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $84.37 – $870.97 · fair‑value band $16.80 – $27.99 · the $615.59 price screens above the $22.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Axon Enterprise, Inc (AXON) currently trades at $615.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.40, implying the stock looks roughly 96.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Axon Enterprise, Inc generated revenue of $3.0B at a net margin of 6.9%. Revenue grew 33.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.8%. Net debt stands at $709M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.80 (bear case) to $27.99 (bull case); at $615.59, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 82% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -60% fair-value upside, at -96%, AXON screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($120.43) versus Growth DCF ($15.09). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Axon Enterprise, Inc. provides public safety technology solutions in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Software and Services, and Connected Devices.
Full company description
Axon Enterprise, Inc. provides public safety technology solutions in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Software and Services, and Connected Devices. The Software and Services segment develops, manufactures, and sells cloud-based software-as-a-service solutions to capture, store, manage, share, and analyze video and other digital evidence. This segment also offers Axon Evidence, Draft One, Axon Records, Axon Standards, Axon Fusus, Axon Assistant, and others. The Connected Devices segment engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of integrated hardware solutions, such as conducted energy devices under the TASER brand, body cameras, fixed and in-car cameras, drone and counter-drone technologies, accessories, extended warranties, and related hardware products, as well as virtual reality training hardware. The company serves first responders across international, federal, state, and local governments, international governmental entities, commercial enterprises, and consumers through direct sales, distribution partners, and third-party resellers. The company was formerly known as TASER International, Inc. and changed its name to Axon Enterprise, Inc. in April 2017. Axon Enterprise, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Axon Enterprise, Inc reported revenue of $2.8B in FY2025 versus $863M in FY2021, a compound +33.9%/yr. Reported net income was $125M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +28.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −5.2 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
AXON screens 96% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Axon Enterprise Q2 Earnings on Deck: How to Approach the Stock Now?
- Chipotle Mexican Grill vs. Axon Enterprise: Comparing Recent Revenue Trends for These S&P 500 Companies
- What Analyst Projections for Key Metrics Reveal About Axon (AXON) Q2 Earnings
- Axon Enterprise (AXON) Stock Drops Despite Market Gains: Important Facts to Note
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 225 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $365.33 | $116.71 | -68% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $222.76 | $88.37 | -60% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €213.05 | €86.20 | -60% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $231.20 | $49.09 | -79% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥33.89 | ¥21.90 | -35% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 496,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -45% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 1,156,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -50% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 346.75 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -62% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 680.10 | kr 212.84 | -69% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 330.10 | kr 101.07 | -69% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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