Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CA · Market cap C$3.9B (≈ $2.9B) · ISIN CA04040X1015
What is Aris Mining Corporation really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 267% above our fair value of C$7.73.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price +36.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$9.66). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$2.70 – C$30.90 · fair‑value band C$5.80 – C$9.66 · the C$28.36 price screens above the C$7.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS) currently trades at C$28.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$7.73, implying the stock looks roughly 267.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$9.90 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the C$28.36 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$4.69, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Aris Mining Corporation generated revenue of C$1.1B at a net margin of 15.2%. Revenue grew 136.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.9%. Net debt stands at C$133M. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$5.80 (bear case) to C$9.66 (bull case); at C$28.36, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 231% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −73%, ARIS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly C$0.8121 per share, which is 10.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$9.90) versus Asset-Based (C$4.69). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Aris Mining Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold properties in Canada, Colombia, and Guyana. It also explores for silver and copper deposits. Aris Mining Corporation was formerly known as GCM Mining Corp. and changed its name to Aris Mining Corporation in September 2022.
Full company description
Aris Mining Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold properties in Canada, Colombia, and Guyana. It also explores for silver and copper deposits. Aris Mining Corporation was formerly known as GCM Mining Corp. and changed its name to Aris Mining Corporation in September 2022. The company was founded in 20222 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Aris Mining Corporation reported revenue of $944M in FY2025 versus $383M in FY2021, a compound +25.3%/yr. Reported net income was $79.7M in FY2025, compounding −19.1%/yr from FY2021.
ARIS screens 267% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is Aris Mining (TSX:ARIS) Still Cheap After Its 44% Monthly Rally?
- Assessing Aris Mining (TSX:ARIS) Valuation Following Recent Share Price Moves
- Aris Mining Marks Marmato Access Breakthrough As Expansion Risks And Rewards Build
- Assessing Aris Mining’s Valuation As Strong Q1 2026 Gold Production And Revenue Update Lifts Expectations
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $128.00 | $112.82 | −12% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥32.21 | ¥39.42 | +22% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$268.76 | C$213.40 | −21% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $41.23 | $50.66 | +23% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | $271.31 | $96.63 | −64% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$201.40 | C$56.05 | −72% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $97.92 | $88.63 | −9% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $32.51 | $34.62 | +6% |
| Royal Gold, Inc RGLD | $262.85 | $93.56 | −64% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$23.19 | A$15.98 | −31% |
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