ALS.TO (ALS) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CA · Market cap C$3.2B (≈ $2.3B) · ISIN CA0209361009
What is ALS.TO really worth?
A solid business, but trading 205% above our fair value of C$20.90.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price +5.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$36.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (C$11.88 to C$36.22). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$14.07 – C$67.51 · fair‑value band C$11.88 – C$36.22 · the C$63.84 price screens above the C$20.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
ALS.TO (ALS) currently trades at C$63.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$20.90, implying the stock looks roughly 205.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$208.24 per share, and 8 of the 24 models we run sit above the C$63.84 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at C$4.86, and 16 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, ALS.TO generated revenue of C$50.3M at a net margin of 62.8%. Revenue grew 75.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 40.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of C$206M. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$11.88 (bear case) to C$36.22 (bull case); at C$63.84, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 143% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −67%, ALS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly C$4.24 per share, which is 20.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$208.24) versus Economic Profit (C$4.86). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 83
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Altius Minerals Corporation engages in the mineral and renewable royalties and project generation businesses in Canada, Brazil, and the United States. The company operates in three segments: Mineral Royalties, Renewable Royalties and Project Generation.
Full company description
Altius Minerals Corporation engages in the mineral and renewable royalties and project generation businesses in Canada, Brazil, and the United States. The company operates in three segments: Mineral Royalties, Renewable Royalties and Project Generation. It owns royalty and streaming interests in 11 operating mines covering copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium, potash, and iron ore. The company is also involved in the acquisition and management of renewable energy investments and royalties, as well as early-stage royalties and minority equity or project interests. Altius Minerals Corporation was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in St. John's, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ALS.TO reported revenue of C$40.5M in FY2025 versus C$81.7M in FY2021, a compound −16.1%/yr. Reported net income was C$299M in FY2025, compounding +65.3%/yr from FY2021.
ALS screens 205% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- TNR Gold executives boost share ownership as Altius Minerals raises stake
- Altius Minerals Corporation Closes Transaction Increasing Ownership Interest in Great Bay Renewables and Announces Increased Credit Facility
- Altius Minerals doubles down on TNR Gold's royalty strategy as first cashflow nears
- Altius Minerals Corporation Increases Ownership Interest to 50% in Great Bay Renewables in Partnership with Northampton Capital Partners
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 469 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHP | A$66.84 | A$42.16 | −37% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $15.31 | $8.95 | −42% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 65.50 SAR | 33.87 SAR | −48% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.42 | ¥16.15 | −12% |
| Teck Resources Limited TECK | $69.34 | $32.02 | −54% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹573.00 | ₹508.34 | −11% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥66.76 | ¥9.55 | −86% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥41.02 | ¥10.59 | −74% |
| Western Mining Co 601168 | ¥37.85 | ¥25.99 | −31% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 527.80 | kr 461.48 | −13% |
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