Allreal Holding (ALLN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Allreal Holding stock CHF 84.19, price CHF 191, upside -56.0%, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 118.45 – CHF 232.77 · fair‑value band CHF 84.19 – CHF 127.09 · the CHF 191.20 price screens above the CHF 84.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 24, 2026.
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Allreal Holding AG, through its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate company in Switzerland. It operates in two segments, Real Estate and Development & Realisation. The company invests in residential and commercial properties.
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It also offers portfolio management, operational, and building management services. In addition, the company provides project development, and consulting services; and sells condominiums.
Additionally, it is involved in planning, execution of construction projects, and buying and developing real estate projects and developing sites; maintenance of technical systems; renovation activities; and implementation of own and third-party construction projects, as well as acquires plots of land.
Allreal Holding AG was founded in 1999 and is based in Opfikon, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Allreal Holding (ALLN) currently trades at CHF 191.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 84.19, 56.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of CHF 154.34 per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the CHF 191.20 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at CHF 21.12, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: CHF 84.19 (bear) to CHF 127.09 (bull), the price of CHF 191.20 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Allreal Holding reported revenue of CHF 437M in FY2025 versus CHF 553M in FY2021, a compound −5.7%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 219M in FY2025, compounding +4.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 3.2B Mid · P/E ratio 15.2 · P/S ratio 7.20 · EPS (TTM) CHF 12.60 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 47.4% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −56%, ALLN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearCHF 84.19Fair Value CHF 84.19BullCHF 127.09
Price CHF 191.20 · Upside -56.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 4.57 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −5.6% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+2.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.1% vs 5.7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.33% → 42%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.4% a year for the price.
AI conclusion: The dual rental and development model supports profit growth via realisation gains, yet limited public data and debt near equity with modest ROE restrict any durable advantage assessment.
Main risk: Shifting valuations could weaken rental income while making realisation gains from property and condominium sales less reliable, directly hitting operating profit.
Allreal runs both a rental portfolio and an active development business with property and condominium sales. Operating profit excluding revaluations rose more than 20 percent in the first half, lifted by stronger realisation gains. Will the development side generate steady growth or mainly cushion weaker rental trends and shifting valuations?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 129 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−56.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.7% · Above median
Return on assets3.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)47.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)43.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.76× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)15.2× · Pricier than median
P/B1.15× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)7.20× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow20.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA28.6× · Priciest 25%
PEG6.23× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)5· sector 5
PAST (return on equity)31· sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)62· sector 75
DIVIDEND (yield)73· sector 70
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Allreal Holding Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALLN
Frequently asked questions
Is Allreal Holding (ALLN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 84.19 versus a price of CHF 191.20, about −56% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALLN?
Our model-based fair value for Allreal Holding is CHF 84.19 (as of Oct 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 191.20.
What is the quality score of ALLN?
Allreal Holding has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Allreal Holding (ALLN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 84.19 (as of Oct 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 84.19, optimistic scenario CHF 127.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Allreal Holding stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 84.19, about −56% upside versus a price of CHF 191.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 84.19, optimistic scenario CHF 127.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Allreal Holding (ALLN)?
Allreal Holding reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 439M (latest available figure, as of Oct 24, 2026).
Does Allreal Holding pay a dividend?
Allreal Holding currently shows a dividend yield of 3.66% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Allreal Holding (ALLN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Allreal Holding would have to grow free cash flow by +17.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.3 % per year. As of Oct 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALLN use?
Our models discount Allreal Holding at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.51, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Allreal Holding that is +17.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Allreal Holding (ALLN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Allreal Holding grew -3.3 % a year. The price currently implies +17.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Allreal Holding (ALLN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Allreal Holding (+17.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Allreal Holding (ALLN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.95 %: that much free cash flow Allreal Holding produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Allreal Holding (ALLN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Allreal Holding it is CHF 84.19 per share (as of Oct 24, 2026), against a price of CHF 191.20. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Allreal Holding stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 24, 2026, ALLN trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 191.20, fair value CHF 84.19, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALLN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 191.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 84.19). For Allreal Holding the two are CHF 107.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Allreal Holding worth?
The market values Allreal Holding at about CHF 3.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 24, 2026). Per share that is CHF 191.20; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 84.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALLN?
Our models span a range for Allreal Holding: cautious scenario CHF 84.19, base CHF 84.19, optimistic CHF 127.09 per share (as of Oct 24, 2026, price CHF 191.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALLN?
Allreal Holding trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.2 (as of Oct 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 84.19 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 6.2, P/B 1.2, P/S 7.2, EV/EBITDA 28.6.
What is the PEG ratio of ALLN?
The PEG ratio of Allreal Holding is 6.23 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Allreal Holding (ALLN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Allreal Holding (as of Oct 24, 2026): return on equity 7.7%, debt of 0.76 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALLN from its 52-week high?
Allreal Holding trades at CHF 191.20, about 18% below its 52-week high of CHF 232.77 and 3% above the low of CHF 185.40 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 84.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Allreal Holding?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Henderson Land Development Company, Swiss Prime Site AG, Central Pattana Public Company, The Phoenix Mills Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Allreal Holding stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 24, 2026: price CHF 191.20, calculated fair value CHF 84.19 (−56%), Quality Score 62/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALLN calculated?
We run Allreal Holding through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 84.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Allreal Holding itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Allreal Holding (ALLN)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was CHF 191.20. Our model-based fair value is CHF 84.19, about −56% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Allreal Holding right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (CHF 127.09). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Allreal Holding (ALLN) come from?
Earnings per share at Allreal Holding grew +2.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −7.6 %, EBIT margin +10.2 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Allreal Holding
How large is the market capitalisation of Allreal Holding (ALLN)?
The market capitalisation of Allreal Holding is CHF 3.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Allreal Holding (ALLN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Allreal Holding is 7.20 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Allreal Holding (ALLN)?
Earnings per share at Allreal Holding are CHF 12.60 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Allreal Holding (ALLN)?
The dividend yield of Allreal Holding is 3.7% (payout 55.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Allreal Holding (ALLN)?
The net margin of Allreal Holding is 47.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Allreal Holding (ALLN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Allreal Holding is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Allreal Holding (ALLN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Allreal Holding is 3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Allreal Holding (ALLN)?
The operating margin of Allreal Holding is 43.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Allreal Holding (ALLN)?
Revenue at Allreal Holding is growing +1.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Allreal Holding (ALLN)?
Earnings per share at Allreal Holding are growing −9.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Allreal Holding (ALLN) carry?
The net debt of Allreal Holding is CHF 2.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 17.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 24, 2026