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Henderson Land Development Company (0012) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$120B (≈ $15.3B) · ISIN HK0012000102

What is Henderson Land Development Company really worth?

HL Henderson Land Development Company 0012 · HK
PriceHK$26.72
Fair ValueHK$19.85
Upside−25.7%
Quality54/100

A solid business, but trading 35% above our fair value of HK$19.85.

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Strengths

✓Highly profitable · 22.0% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.6 %/yr)
!Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
!Narrow moat 44/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 8 out of 100

For context

·6.74% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range HK$14.89 – HK$24.81

Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026

From 11 valuation models · updated 9 days ago

Share price −5.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$24.81). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$34.54 HK$14.96 Fair Value HK$19.85 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$14.96 – HK$34.54 · fair‑value band HK$14.89 – HK$24.81 · the HK$26.72 price screens above the HK$19.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Henderson Land Development Company (0012) currently trades at HK$26.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$19.85, implying the stock looks roughly 34.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of HK$44.99 per share, and 3 of the 9 models we run sit above the HK$26.72 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at HK$13.29, and 6 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Henderson Land Development Company generated revenue of HK$25.7B at a net margin of 22.0%. Revenue grew 20.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.9%. Net debt stands at HK$142B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$14.89 (bear case) to HK$24.81 (bull case); at HK$26.72, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −26%, 0012 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence HK$46.89 HK$44.99 HK$35.18 76
5Y EBITDA Exit — — HK$4.12 72
FCF DCF HK$0.7500 HK$13.59 HK$32.17 70
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.7500 HK$13.59 HK$32.17 70
5Y EBITDA Exit — — HK$4.12 72
10Y Revenue Exit — — HK$3.75 64
10Y EBITDA Exit — HK$0.2800 HK$7.79 65
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$16.53 HK$31.19 HK$51.63 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$16.53 HK$25.05 HK$34.29 66
Multiples
P/S Multiple HK$14.89 HK$19.85 HK$24.81 58
P/B Multiple HK$14.89 HK$19.85 HK$24.81 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$33.30 HK$44.63 HK$66.61 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$1.48 HK$13.29 HK$29.58 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence HK$46.89 HK$44.99 HK$35.18 76

Widest divergence: Economic Profit (HK$44.99) versus DCF Models (HK$0.2800). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 21.8 as of Jul 1, 2026
P/S ratio 4.78 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.6000 price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.8
Dividend yield 6.7%
Net margin 22.0% FY2025
Return on equity 1.9% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% avg 5y
Operating margin 13.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$25.7B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +20.0% 3y avg +0.4%
EPS growth (YoY) −16.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$12.3B FY2025
Net debt HK$142B FY2025 · ≈ 11.5 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 27
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 90
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 76
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 62
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 31
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 67
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Henderson Land Development Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and investment activities in Hong Kong and Mainland China.

Full company description

Henderson Land Development Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and investment activities in Hong Kong and Mainland China. The company operates through Property Development, Property Leasing, Department Stores and Supermarket-Cum-Stores Operations, Hotel Room Operation, Other Businesses, and Utility and Energy segments. The Property Development segment develops and sells real estate properties. Its property portfolio primarily includes offices, shopping arcades, and shopping malls. The Property Leasing segment leases properties. The Department Stores and Supermarket-Cum-Stores Operations segment operates and manages department stores and supermarket-cum-stores. The Hotel Room Operation segment operates hotel properties. The Other Businesses segment manages hotels; provides construction, finance, project management, property management, agency, and cleaning and security guard services, as well as the trading of building materials. It engages in food and beverage, and travel operations. The Utility and Energy segment is involved in production, distribution, and marketing gas; and water supply and renewable energy businesses. Henderson Land Development Company Limited was founded in 1976 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Henderson Land Development Company Limited is a subsidiary of Henderson Development Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Henderson Land Development Company reported revenue of HK$25.7B in FY2025 versus HK$23.9B in FY2021, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$5.7B in FY2025, compounding −19.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$25.7B
Latest YoY
+1.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (26Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−12.0% (−18.7 + 6.7)
Revenue +1.9%/yr
FY21 HK$23.9B
FY22 HK$25.4B
FY23 HK$27.6B
FY24 HK$25.3B
FY25 HK$25.7B
Net income −19.1%/yr
FY21 HK$13.2B
FY22 HK$9.2B
FY23 HK$9.3B
FY24 HK$6.3B
FY25 HK$5.7B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −11.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +0.8 %

of which total revenue +0.9 % · buybacks/dilution −0.1 %

EBIT margin −4.2 %
Tax rate +0.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −7.9 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

0012 screens 35% overvalued. Compare with Corem Property Group →

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Henderson Land Development Company · Fair Value
HK$19.85 −35%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Henderson Land Development Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0012

Peer Group

Real Estate - Diversified · 131 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside −26% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 22% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 14% · Below median
Revenue growth 20% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.7% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.47× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 21.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 0.37× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 4.66× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 55.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 0.98× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 50
FUTURE100 · sector 29
PAST8 · sector 19
HEALTH77 · sector 77
DIVIDEND100 · sector 60

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Corem Property Group CORED kr 229.00 kr 121.82 −47%
Swiss Prime Site AG SPSN CHF 124.60 CHF 44.83 −64%
Central Pattana Public Company CPN 66.00 THB 71.37 THB +8%
Prestige Estates Projects Limited PRESTIGE ₹1,586 ₹645.21 −59%
The Phoenix Mills Limited PHOENIXLTD ₹1,905 ₹701.74 −63%
Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company 4325 17.19 SAR 11.60 SAR −33%
Fastighets AB BALDB kr 54.08 kr 70.70 +31%
Hainan Airport Infrastructure Co 600515 ¥2.79 ¥0.3300 −88%
Parque Arauco S.A PARAUCO 3,954 CLP 2,740 CLP −31%
Singapore Land Group U06 3.41 SGD 3.23 SGD −5%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Henderson Land Development Company (0012) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$19.85 versus a price of HK$26.72, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0012?
Our model-based fair value for Henderson Land Development Company is HK$19.85 (as of Aug 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$26.72.
What is the quality score of 0012?
Henderson Land Development Company has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
Henderson Land Development Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$25.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 27, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0012?
The net profit margin of Henderson Land Development Company is about 22.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 22.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Henderson Land Development Company pay a dividend?
Henderson Land Development Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.74% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 27, 2026).
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