Henderson Land Development Company (0012) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$120B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +5.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 27% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$24.81). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$14.96 – HK$34.54 · fair‑value band HK$14.89 – HK$24.81 · the HK$27.06 price screens above the HK$19.85 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Henderson Land Development Company (0012) currently trades at HK$27.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$19.85, implying the stock looks roughly 26.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Henderson Land Development Company generated revenue of HK$25.7B at a net margin of 22.0%. Revenue grew 20.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.9%. Net debt stands at HK$142B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$14.89 (bear case) to HK$24.81 (bull case); at HK$27.06, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -27%, 0012 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (HK$44.99) versus DCF Models (HK$0.2800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Henderson Land Development Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and investment activities in Hong Kong and Mainland China.
Full company description
Henderson Land Development Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and investment activities in Hong Kong and Mainland China. The company operates through Property Development, Property Leasing, Department Stores and Supermarket-Cum-Stores Operations, Hotel Room Operation, Other Businesses, and Utility and Energy segments. The Property Development segment develops and sells real estate properties. Its property portfolio primarily includes offices, shopping arcades, and shopping malls. The Property Leasing segment leases properties. The Department Stores and Supermarket-Cum-Stores Operations segment operates and manages department stores and supermarket-cum-stores. The Hotel Room Operation segment operates hotel properties. The Other Businesses segment manages hotels; provides construction, finance, project management, property management, agency, and cleaning and security guard services, as well as the trading of building materials. It engages in food and beverage, and travel operations. The Utility and Energy segment is involved in production, distribution, and marketing gas; and water supply and renewable energy businesses. Henderson Land Development Company Limited was founded in 1976 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Henderson Land Development Company Limited is a subsidiary of Henderson Development Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Henderson Land Development Company reported revenue of HK$25.7B in FY2025 versus HK$23.9B in FY2021, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$5.7B in FY2025, compounding −19.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +0.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
0012 screens 27% overvalued. Compare with Swiss Prime Site AG →
Peer Group
Real Estate - Diversified · 138 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Prime Site AG SPSN | CHF 128.80 | CHF 44.83 | -65% |
| Central Pattana Public Company CPN | 66.00 THB | 71.37 THB | +8% |
| Prestige Estates Projects Limited PRESTIGE | ₹1,591 | ₹645.21 | -59% |
| The Phoenix Mills Limited PHOENIXLTD | ₹1,905 | ₹701.74 | -63% |
| Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company 4325 | 17.55 SAR | 11.60 SAR | -34% |
| Fastighets AB BALDB | kr 54.08 | kr 70.70 | +31% |
| Hainan Airport Infrastructure Co 600515 | ¥2.94 | ¥0.3300 | -89% |
| Parque Arauco S.A PARAUCO | 3,940 CLP | 2,777 CLP | -30% |
| Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Real Estate & Properties (Group) Co 000029 | ¥23.19 | ¥4.60 | -80% |
| Corporación Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A. VESTA | 59.57 MXN | 52.49 MXN | -12% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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