St Joe Company (JOE) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $3.5B · ISIN US7901481009
What is St Joe Company really worth?
St Joe Company
JOE · US
A strong business, but trading 93% above our fair value of $34.24.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +1.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 81/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($42.80). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $30.16 – $72.44 · fair‑value band $25.68 – $42.80 · the $66.07 price screens above the $34.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
St Joe Company (JOE) currently trades at $66.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.24, implying the stock looks roughly 93.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 81/100 (high quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $51.57 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the $66.07 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $8.86, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, St Joe Company generated revenue of $518M at a net margin of 21.6%. Revenue grew 5.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.9%. Net debt stands at $264M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $25.68 (bear case) to $42.80 (bull case); at $66.07, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −48%, JOE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.9000 per share, which is 2.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($51.57) versus Dividend Discount ($8.86). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 75 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
The St. Joe Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate development, asset management, and operating company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Residential, Hospitality, and Commercial.
Full company description
The St. Joe Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate development, asset management, and operating company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Residential, Hospitality, and Commercial. The Residential segment engages in the development of communities into homesites for sale to homebuilders and on a limited basis to retail customers. This segment primarily sells developed homesites, completed homes, parcels of entitled or undeveloped land or homesites, and a homesite residual on homebuilder, as well as offers marketing services. Its Hospitality segment owns and operates a private membership club, golf courses, beach clubs, retail outlets, marinas, and other entertainment assets. This segment also engages in the hotel, food and beverage, and gulf-front vacation rental operations, as well as provides management services. The Commercial segment engages in leasing of commercial property, multi-family, a senior living community, and other assets. This segment also involved in the planning, development, entitlement, management, and sale of commercial and rural land holdings for retail, office, hotel, senior living, multi-family, self-storage, and industrial uses; and grows and sells pulpwood, sawtimber, and other forest products, as well as operates real estate brokerage, title insurance agency and insurance agency business. The St. Joe Company was incorporated in 1936 and is based in Panama City Beach, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
St Joe Company reported revenue of $513M in FY2025 versus $267M in FY2021, a compound +17.8%/yr. Reported net income was $116M in FY2025, compounding +11.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +1.0 % · buybacks/dilution +4.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
JOE screens 93% overvalued. Compare with Corem Property Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is St. Joe (JOE) Expensive Or Undervalued On Its Mixed Valuation Signals?
- The St. Joe Company Releases the Latest Issue of the Watersound Club® Member "Watersound Lifestyle®" Magazine
- The St. Joe Co (JOE) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and Strategic Buybacks ...
- St. Joe Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
Peer Group
Real Estate - Diversified · 131 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corem Property Group CORED | kr 229.00 | kr 121.82 | −47% |
| Swiss Prime Site AG SPSN | CHF 124.60 | CHF 44.83 | −64% |
| Central Pattana Public Company CPN | 66.00 THB | 71.37 THB | +8% |
| Prestige Estates Projects Limited PRESTIGE | ₹1,586 | ₹645.21 | −59% |
| The Phoenix Mills Limited PHOENIXLTD | ₹1,905 | ₹701.74 | −63% |
| Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company 4325 | 17.19 SAR | 11.60 SAR | −33% |
| Fastighets AB BALDB | kr 54.08 | kr 70.70 | +31% |
| Hainan Airport Infrastructure Co 600515 | ¥2.79 | ¥0.3300 | −88% |
| Parque Arauco S.A PARAUCO | 3,954 CLP | 2,740 CLP | −31% |
| Singapore Land Group U06 | 3.41 SGD | 3.23 SGD | −5% |
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