St Joe Company (JOE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of St Joe Company stock $34.53, price $67.57, upside -48.9%, quality 79 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $30.09 – $72.27 · fair‑value band $25.90 – $43.16 · the $67.57 price screens above the $34.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 25, 2026.
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The St. Joe Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate development, asset management, and operating company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Residential, Hospitality, and Commercial.
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The Residential segment engages in the development of communities into homesites for sale to homebuilders and on a limited basis to retail customers.
This segment primarily sells developed homesites, completed homes, parcels of entitled or undeveloped land or homesites, and a homesite residual on homebuilder, as well as offers marketing services.
Its Hospitality segment owns and operates a private membership club, golf courses, beach clubs, retail outlets, marinas, and other entertainment assets. This segment also engages in the hotel, food and beverage, and gulf-front vacation rental operations, as well as provides management services.
The Commercial segment engages in leasing of commercial property, multi-family, a senior living community, and other assets.
This segment also involved in the planning, development, entitlement, management, and sale of commercial and rural land holdings for retail, office, hotel, senior living, multi-family, self-storage, and industrial uses; and grows and sells pulpwood, sawtimber, and other forest products, as well as operates real estate brokerage, title insurance agency and insurance agency business.
The St. Joe Company was incorporated in 1936 and is based in Panama City Beach, Florida.
Stock analysis
St Joe Company (JOE) currently trades at $67.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.53, 48.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $55.66 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the $67.57 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $8.04, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $25.90 (bear) to $43.16 (bull), the price of $67.57 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
St Joe Company reported revenue of $513M in FY2025 versus $267M in FY2021, a compound +17.8%/yr. Reported net income was $116M in FY2025, compounding +11.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.9B Mid · P/E ratio 31.7 · P/S ratio 7.05 · EPS (TTM) $2.13 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 22.5% · Return on equity 16.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 74 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −49%, JOE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$25.90Fair Value $34.53Bull$43.16
Price $67.57 · Upside -48.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.23 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+27.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.3% a year
Revenue growth 37 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+14.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21.2% vs −1.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29% → 29%
2025 sits 58% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.4% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The diversified mix of residential and hospitality assets forms the main strength in an average market position, while limited public signals leave little evidence of any durable edge beyond typical sector margins.
Main risk: Real estate focus limits innovation scope, which could undermine durability of the average position without clearer public signals on sustainability of project scaling.
St. Joe is testing custom homesites in its newest Watersound community with a competitive bidding process after early buyer interest. This method in a larger gated development highlights demand for premium lots amid the company's mix of residential and hospitality assets. Our models currently see it as overvalued. Will the bidding uncover more pricing strength across the portfolio than expected, or will it show the limits of scaling these projects?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 129 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−48.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)22.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)34.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)23.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.74× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)31.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B5.04× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)7.05× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow20.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA20.4× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 5
PAST (return on equity)65· sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)63· sector 75
DIVIDEND (yield)18· sector 70
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "St Joe Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JOE
Frequently asked questions
Is St Joe Company (JOE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $34.53 versus a price of $67.57, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of JOE?
Our model-based fair value for St Joe Company is $34.53 (as of Oct 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $67.57.
What is the quality score of JOE?
St Joe Company has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for St Joe Company (JOE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $34.53 (as of Oct 25, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $25.90, optimistic scenario $43.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the St Joe Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $34.53, about −49% upside versus a price of $67.57 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $25.90, optimistic scenario $43.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of St Joe Company (JOE)?
St Joe Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $548M (latest available figure, as of Oct 25, 2026).
Does St Joe Company pay a dividend?
St Joe Company currently shows a dividend yield of 0.92% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 25, 2026).
What growth is priced into St Joe Company (JOE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, St Joe Company would have to grow free cash flow by +14.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +26.2 % per year. As of Oct 25, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of JOE use?
Our models discount St Joe Company at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.28, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For St Joe Company that is +14.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has St Joe Company (JOE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at St Joe Company grew +26.2 % a year. The price currently implies +14.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of St Joe Company (JOE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into St Joe Company (+14.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of St Joe Company (JOE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.83 %: that much free cash flow St Joe Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of St Joe Company (JOE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For St Joe Company it is $34.53 per share (as of Oct 25, 2026), against a price of $67.57. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is St Joe Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 25, 2026, JOE trades above its calculated fair value: price $67.57, fair value $34.53, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JOE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($67.57); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($34.53). For St Joe Company the two are $33.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is St Joe Company worth?
The market values St Joe Company at about $3.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 25, 2026). Per share that is $67.57; our models calculate a fair value of $34.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JOE?
Our models span a range for St Joe Company: cautious scenario $25.90, base $34.53, optimistic $43.16 per share (as of Oct 25, 2026, price $67.57). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JOE?
St Joe Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.7 (as of Oct 25, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $34.53 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.0, P/S 7.1, EV/EBITDA 20.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of St Joe Company (JOE)?
Balance-sheet figures for St Joe Company (as of Oct 25, 2026): return on equity 16.3%, debt of 0.74 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 79/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JOE from its 52-week high?
St Joe Company trades at $67.57, about 7% below its 52-week high of $72.27 and 39% above the low of $48.55 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $34.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to St Joe Company?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Henderson Land Development Company, Swiss Prime Site AG, Central Pattana Public Company, The Phoenix Mills Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is St Joe Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 25, 2026: price $67.57, calculated fair value $34.53 (−49%), Quality Score 79/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JOE calculated?
We run St Joe Company through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $34.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. St Joe Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of St Joe Company (JOE)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was $67.57. Our model-based fair value is $34.53, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with St Joe Company right now?
A high-quality business (quality 79/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($43.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of St Joe Company (JOE) come from?
Earnings per share at St Joe Company grew −5.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.1 %, EBIT margin −9.8 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of St Joe Company
How large is the market capitalisation of St Joe Company (JOE)?
The market capitalisation of St Joe Company is $3.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of St Joe Company (JOE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of St Joe Company is 7.05 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of St Joe Company (JOE)?
Earnings per share at St Joe Company are $2.13 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of St Joe Company (JOE)?
The dividend yield of St Joe Company is 0.9% (payout 29.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of St Joe Company (JOE)?
The net margin of St Joe Company is 22.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of St Joe Company (JOE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of St Joe Company is 16.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of St Joe Company (JOE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of St Joe Company is 6.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of St Joe Company (JOE)?
The operating margin of St Joe Company is 34.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at St Joe Company (JOE)?
Revenue at St Joe Company is growing +23.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at St Joe Company (JOE)?
Earnings per share at St Joe Company are growing +39.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does St Joe Company (JOE) carry?
The net debt of St Joe Company is $264M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 25, 2026