Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company (4325) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · SA · Market cap 23.7B SAR
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 11.62 SAR to 11.60 SAR (−0.2%) since Jul 31, 2026. Share price +1.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 34% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (14.50 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (7.49 SAR to 14.50 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (17 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
17‑month range 14.62 SAR – 26.70 SAR · fair‑value band 7.49 SAR – 14.50 SAR · the 17.55 SAR price screens above the 11.60 SAR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company (4325) currently trades at 17.55 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 11.60 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 33.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company generated revenue of 2.5B SAR at a net margin of 35.0%. Revenue declined 84.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.6%. Net debt stands at 7.3B SAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 7.49 SAR (bear case) to 14.50 SAR (bull case); at 17.55 SAR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -34%, 4325 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (17.88 SAR) versus Asset-Based (7.39 SAR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company engages in real estate activities in Saudi Arabia. The company owns and develops the MASAR destination, an urban project in Makkah.
Full company description
Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company engages in real estate activities in Saudi Arabia. The company owns and develops the MASAR destination, an urban project in Makkah. It is also involved in the purchasing, selling, and dividing of lands and real estate; off-plan sales activities; and management and leasing of owned or leased non-residential properties. In addition, the company constructs residential and non-residential buildings, including schools, hospitals, and hotels; and roads, streets, sidewalks, road supplies, bridges, and tunnels. Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Mecca, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company reported revenue of 3.0B SAR in FY2025 versus 3.0M SAR in FY2021, a compound +463.3%/yr. Reported net income was 983M SAR in FY2025.
4325 screens 34% overvalued. Compare with Swiss Prime Site AG →
Peer Group
Real Estate - Diversified · 138 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Prime Site AG SPSN | CHF 128.80 | CHF 44.83 | -65% |
| Central Pattana Public Company CPN | 66.00 THB | 71.37 THB | +8% |
| Prestige Estates Projects Limited PRESTIGE | ₹1,591 | ₹645.21 | -59% |
| The Phoenix Mills Limited PHOENIXLTD | ₹1,905 | ₹701.74 | -63% |
| Fastighets AB BALDB | kr 54.08 | kr 70.70 | +31% |
| Hainan Airport Infrastructure Co 600515 | ¥2.94 | ¥0.3300 | -89% |
| Parque Arauco S.A PARAUCO | 3,940 CLP | 2,777 CLP | -30% |
| Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Real Estate & Properties (Group) Co 000029 | ¥23.19 | ¥4.60 | -80% |
| Corporación Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A. VESTA | 59.57 MXN | 52.49 MXN | -12% |
| Catena AB CATE | kr 400.00 | kr 298.00 | -26% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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