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Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$69.1B (≈ $8.8B)

What is Tianqi Lithium Corporation really worth?

TL Tianqi Lithium Corporation 9696 · HK
PriceHK$34.50
Fair ValueHK$11.14
Upside−67.7%
Quality54/100

A solid business, but trading 210% above our fair value of HK$11.14.

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Strengths

✓Solidly profitable · 17.3% net margin
✓Wide moat 66/100

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +22.1 %/yr)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: Medium Range HK$7.79 – HK$14.48

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$7.55 to HK$11.14 (+47.6%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price −5.1% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$14.48). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$7.79 to HK$14.48) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (4 years)

HK$78.33 HK$18.56 Fair Value HK$11.14 Jul 2022 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

50‑month range HK$18.56 – HK$78.33 · fair‑value band HK$7.79 – HK$14.48 · the HK$34.50 price screens above the HK$11.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696) currently trades at HK$34.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$11.14, implying the stock looks roughly 209.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of HK$28.79 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$34.50 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$4.67, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Tianqi Lithium Corporation generated revenue of HK$12.9B at a net margin of 17.3%. Revenue grew 98.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.5%. Net debt stands at HK$11.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$7.79 (bear case) to HK$14.48 (bull case); at HK$34.50, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −68%, 9696 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.9913 per share, which is 8.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
EPV HK$7.79 HK$9.79 HK$11.53 74
Residual Income HK$17.80 HK$16.81 HK$12.36 74
ROIC Compounder HK$7.79 HK$9.79 HK$11.53 70
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$1.87 HK$13.03 HK$18.28 61
Lynch FV HK$4.34 HK$6.20 HK$8.06 59
PEG = 1.0 HK$4.34 HK$6.20 HK$8.06 55
EPV HK$7.79 HK$9.79 HK$11.53 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$16.42 HK$34.14 HK$54.16 64
DDM Multi-Stage HK$16.42 HK$28.79 HK$35.83 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$3.50 HK$4.67 HK$5.84 63
P/S Multiple HK$3.50 HK$4.67 HK$5.84 58
P/B Multiple HK$3.50 HK$4.67 HK$5.84 55
EV/EBIT HK$15.05 HK$21.45 HK$27.85 65
EV/EBITDA HK$15.96 HK$22.67 HK$29.37 67
EV/Revenue HK$2.29 HK$5.06 HK$7.82 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$12.92 HK$17.31 HK$25.83 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$17.80 HK$16.81 HK$12.36 74
ROIC Compounder HK$7.79 HK$9.79 HK$11.53 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$5.28 HK$7.55 HK$9.81 65

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (HK$28.79) versus Multiples (HK$4.67). Highest evidence: EPV (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 26.5 as of Jul 3, 2026
P/S ratio 1.19 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$1.46 price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.5
Dividend yield 4.2% payout 100.0%
Net margin 4.5% FY2025
Return on equity 9.5% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 21.6% avg 5y
Operating margin 59.4% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$12.9B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +98.4% 3y avg −36.9%
EPS growth (YoY) +17.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −HK$584M FY2025
Net debt HK$11.1B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26

Profitability 16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 61
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 66
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 18
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 14
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 72
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Tianqi Lithium Corporation, a new energy materials company, engages in the production, processing, and sales of lithium chemical products in Australia, Chile, and China.

Full company description

Tianqi Lithium Corporation, a new energy materials company, engages in the production, processing, and sales of lithium chemical products in Australia, Chile, and China. Its products include battery and industrial grade lithium carbonate, battery and industrial grade lithium hydroxide monohydrate, lithium chloride anhydrous, lithium metal, sodium sulfate, non-ferrous metal ash slag, aluminium silicon powder, sodium hypochlorite, and technical grade lithium spodumene. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Chengdu, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Tianqi Lithium Corporation reported revenue of HK$10.1B in FY2025 versus HK$7.7B in FY2021, a compound +7.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$451M in FY2025, compounding −40.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$10.1B
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+19.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+22.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (12Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+33.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−30.0% (−34.2 + 4.2)
Revenue +7.1%/yr
FY21 HK$7.7B
FY22 HK$40.2B
FY23 HK$40.4B
FY24 HK$13.1B
FY25 HK$10.1B
Net income −40.7%/yr
FY21 HK$3.6B
FY22 HK$23.9B
FY23 HK$7.3B
FY24 −HK$7.9B
FY25 HK$451M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +15.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share +23.1 %

of which total revenue +29.9 % · buybacks/dilution −5.3 %

EBIT margin +4.6 %
Tax rate −7.3 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −2.9 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

9696 screens 210% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →

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Tianqi Lithium Corporation · Fair Value
HK$11.14 −210%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tianqi Lithium Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9696

Peer Group

Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 469 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 54 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −68% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Top 25%
Return on assets 4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 59% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 98% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.2% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.26× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 26.5× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.63× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 5.36× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 11.8× · Pricier than median
PEG 2.56× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 38
PAST38 · sector 0
HEALTH87 · sector 96
DIVIDEND85 · sector 38

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
BHP Group BHP A$66.84 A$42.16 −37%
Vale S.A VALE $15.31 $8.95 −42%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 65.50 SAR 33.87 SAR −48%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥18.42 ¥16.15 −12%
Teck Resources Limited TECK $69.34 $32.02 −54%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹573.00 ₹508.34 −11%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥66.76 ¥9.55 −86%
China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 ¥41.02 ¥10.59 −74%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥37.85 ¥25.99 −31%
Boliden AB BOL kr 527.80 kr 461.48 −13%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$11.14 versus a price of HK$34.50, about −68% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9696?
Our model-based fair value for Tianqi Lithium Corporation is HK$11.14 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$34.50.
What is the quality score of 9696?
Tianqi Lithium Corporation has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696)?
Tianqi Lithium Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$12.9B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 9696?
The net profit margin of Tianqi Lithium Corporation is about 17.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 17.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Tianqi Lithium Corporation pay a dividend?
Tianqi Lithium Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.25% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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