Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$69.1B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$7.55 to HK$11.14 (+47.6%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price +3.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 68% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$14.48). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$7.79 to HK$14.48) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
49‑month range HK$18.56 – HK$78.33 · fair‑value band HK$7.79 – HK$14.48 · the HK$35.28 price screens above the HK$11.14 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696) currently trades at HK$35.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$11.14, implying the stock looks roughly 68.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Tianqi Lithium Corporation generated revenue of HK$12.9B at a net margin of 17.3%. Revenue grew 98.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.5%. Net debt stands at HK$11.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$7.79 (bear case) to HK$14.48 (bull case); at HK$35.28, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -42% fair-value upside, at -68%, 9696 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (HK$28.79) versus Multiples (HK$4.67). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Tianqi Lithium Corporation, a new energy materials company, engages in the production, processing, and sales of lithium chemical products in Australia, Chile, and China.
Full company description
Tianqi Lithium Corporation, a new energy materials company, engages in the production, processing, and sales of lithium chemical products in Australia, Chile, and China. Its products include battery and industrial grade lithium carbonate, battery and industrial grade lithium hydroxide monohydrate, lithium chloride anhydrous, lithium metal, sodium sulfate, non-ferrous metal ash slag, aluminium silicon powder, sodium hypochlorite, and technical grade lithium spodumene. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Chengdu, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tianqi Lithium Corporation reported revenue of HK$10.1B in FY2025 versus HK$7.7B in FY2021, a compound +7.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$451M in FY2025, compounding −40.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +29.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −6.9 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
9696 screens 68% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 480 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 745.46 MXN | -48% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$179.43 | A$81.76 | -54% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 222.38 MXN | 172.99 MXN | -22% |
| Vale S.A VALEN | 250.00 MXN | 139.41 MXN | -44% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥19.00 | ¥19.80 | +4% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥70.43 | ¥9.55 | -86% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹584.60 | ₹501.98 | -14% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥41.02 | ¥10.59 | -74% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 527.80 | kr 461.48 | -13% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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