Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · CN · Market cap 77.6B CNY (≈ $11.6B) · ISIN CNE100004QD7
What is Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd really worth?
Below-average quality, trading 48% below our fair value of ¥17.47.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 26, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 10 days ago
Share price +7.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥13.11). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.20 – ¥9.65 · fair‑value band ¥13.11 – ¥21.84 · the ¥9.01 price screens below the ¥17.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 26, 2026.
Analysis
Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825) currently trades at ¥9.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥17.47, implying the stock looks roughly 48.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥16.60 per share, and 4 of the 6 models we run sit above the ¥9.01 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥8.67, and 2 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd generated revenue of 23.7B CNY at a net margin of 52.0%. Revenue declined 1.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.6%. Net debt stands at 21.0B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥13.11 (bear case) to ¥21.84 (bull case); at ¥9.01, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 94%, 601825 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.5741 per share, which is 3.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥16.60) versus Dividend Discount (¥8.67). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. engages in commercial banking business in China. The company accepts public deposits; acts as agent for the issuance, redemption, and underwriting of government bonds; buying and selling government bonds and financial bonds.
Full company description
Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. engages in commercial banking business in China. The company accepts public deposits; acts as agent for the issuance, redemption, and underwriting of government bonds; buying and selling government bonds and financial bonds. It also provides short-term, medium-term, and long-term loans; handling domestic and foreign settlements; handling bill acceptance and discounting; interbank lending; bank card services; and foreign exchange deposits, foreign exchange loans, foreign exchange remittances, international settlements, interbank foreign exchange lending, credit investigation, consulting, and witnessing services. In addition, the company acts as agent for receiving and paying funds and insurance business; provides safe deposit box and financial leasing services; and engages in foreign exchange settlement and sales business, other businesses. The company was formerly known as Shanghai Rural Credit Co-operatives Union and changed its name to Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. in August 2005. Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd reported revenue of 25.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 45.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound −13.7%/yr. Reported net income was 12.3B CNY in FY2025, compounding +6.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +8.4 % · buybacks/dilution −2.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1071 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DBS Group D05 | 75.65 SGD | 40.48 SGD | −46% |
| China Merchants Bank Co 3968 | HK$47.96 | HK$76.51 | +60% |
| Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP | €6.78 | €5.66 | −17% |
| HDFC Bank Limited HDB | $23.17 | $24.12 | +4% |
| BNP Paribas SA BNP | €102.56 | €144.64 | +41% |
| UniCredit S.p.A UCG | €84.71 | €77.62 | −8% |
| Mizuho Financial Group MFG | $10.74 | $9.69 | −10% |
| ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK | ₹1,443 | ₹835.21 | −42% |
| Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 | 31.07 SGD | 19.80 SGD | −36% |
| CaixaBank, S.A CABK | €13.52 | €8.85 | −35% |
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