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Jarir Marketing Co (4190) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · SA · Market cap 20.5B SAR (≈ $5.5B) · ISIN SA000A0BLA62

What is Jarir Marketing Co really worth?

JM Jarir Marketing Co 4190 · SR
Price16.30 SAR
Fair Value11.75 SAR
Upside−27.9%
Quality78/100

A strong business, but trading 39% above our fair value of 11.75 SAR.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +4.1 %/yr)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (10/14)
✓Wide moat 74/100

Risks

!Thin margins · 9.4% net margin

For context

·3.31% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range 8.71 SAR – 18.54 SAR

Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 5 days ago

Share price −3.7% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • A fairly wide model range (8.71 SAR to 18.54 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

17.89 SAR 7.79 SAR Fair Value 11.75 SAR Feb 2020 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 7.79 SAR – 17.89 SAR · fair‑value band 8.71 SAR – 18.54 SAR · the 16.30 SAR price screens above the 11.75 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Jarir Marketing Co (4190) currently trades at 16.30 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 11.75 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 38.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 16.75 SAR per share, and 9 of the 26 models we run sit above the 16.30 SAR price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 6.25 SAR, and 17 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Jarir Marketing Co generated revenue of 11.7B SAR at a net margin of 9.2%. Revenue grew 14.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 64.1%. Net debt stands at 473M SAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 8.71 SAR (bear case) to 18.54 SAR (bull case); at 16.30 SAR, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −28%, 4190 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 0.2650 SAR per share, which is 2.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence 13.80 SAR 22.47 SAR 36.33 SAR 79
Growth DCF 13.92 SAR 22.41 SAR 35.92 SAR 77
Owner Earnings 11.48 SAR 18.68 SAR 30.16 SAR 75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence 13.80 SAR 22.47 SAR 36.33 SAR 79
Owner Earnings 11.48 SAR 18.68 SAR 30.16 SAR 75
5Y Revenue Exit 9.86 SAR 15.22 SAR 22.07 SAR 72
5Y EBITDA Exit 10.25 SAR 15.97 SAR 22.69 SAR 75
5Y P/E Exit 13.41 SAR 22.10 SAR 31.46 SAR 70
10Y Revenue Exit 10.88 SAR 16.21 SAR 23.51 SAR 66
10Y EBITDA Exit 11.38 SAR 16.75 SAR 24.00 SAR 68
10Y P/E Exit 13.42 SAR 21.08 SAR 30.91 SAR 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 5.95 SAR 21.59 SAR 29.13 SAR 64
Lynch FV 5.13 SAR 7.33 SAR 9.52 SAR 61
PEG = 1.0 5.13 SAR 7.33 SAR 9.52 SAR 57
EPV 7.66 SAR 8.89 SAR 9.98 SAR 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 7.90 SAR 16.42 SAR 26.05 SAR 66
DDM Multi-Stage 7.90 SAR 13.84 SAR 17.23 SAR 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple 14.43 SAR 19.24 SAR 24.04 SAR 63
P/S Multiple 8.52 SAR 11.37 SAR 14.21 SAR 58
P/B Multiple 4.41 SAR 5.87 SAR 7.34 SAR 55
EV/EBIT 11.93 SAR 15.83 SAR 19.73 SAR 66
EV/EBITDA 9.33 SAR 12.37 SAR 15.40 SAR 67
EV/Revenue 8.11 SAR 11.50 SAR 14.88 SAR 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 0.7300 SAR 0.9800 SAR 1.47 SAR 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 13.92 SAR 22.41 SAR 35.92 SAR 77
Rev-Margin DCF 9.86 SAR 15.27 SAR 21.79 SAR 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income 5.23 SAR 6.25 SAR 33.09 SAR 64
ROIC Compounder 8.06 SAR 9.86 SAR 11.80 SAR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 9.98 SAR 14.26 SAR 18.54 SAR 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (16.75 SAR) versus Asset-Based (0.9800 SAR). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 18.1
P/S ratio 1.67 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) 0.9000 SAR price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.1
Dividend yield 3.3% payout 60.0%
Net margin 9.2% FY2025
Return on equity 64.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 24.6% avg 5y
Operating margin 8.8% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 11.7B SAR TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +14.4% 3y avg +6.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +16.7%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 1.4B SAR FY2025
Net debt 473M SAR FY2025 · ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 78/100

Of which business quality 75 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79

Profitability 80
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 67
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 75
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 96
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 68
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 77
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Jarir Marketing Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the retail and wholesale trading of office and school supplies in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and other Gulf countries. It operates through in three segments: Retail Outlets, Wholesale, and E-commerce.

Full company description

Jarir Marketing Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the retail and wholesale trading of office and school supplies in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and other Gulf countries. It operates through in three segments: Retail Outlets, Wholesale, and E-commerce. The company is involved in the sale of office supplies, school supplies, books, computers and peripherals, computer supplies, smartphones and accessories, electronics, art and craft supplies, video games, smart TV's, and kids' development products, as well as provision of after-sale services Jarir bookstore brand. It also purchases residential and commercial buildings; and acquires land and constructs buildings for sale or lease purposes. The company also sell its products online through website. The company was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Jarir Marketing Co reported revenue of 11.4B SAR in FY2025 versus 9.1B SAR in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was 1.0B SAR in FY2025, compounding +1.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 72/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
11.4B SAR
Latest YoY
+4.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (19Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.2%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+4.4% (1.1 + 3.3)
Revenue +5.7%/yr
FY21 9.1B SAR
FY22 9.4B SAR
FY23 10.6B SAR
FY24 10.8B SAR
FY25 11.4B SAR
Net income +1.4%/yr
FY21 992M SAR
FY22 970M SAR
FY23 973M SAR
FY24 974M SAR
FY25 1.0B SAR
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +2.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share +6.8 %

of which total revenue +6.8 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %

EBIT margin −2.8 %
Tax rate −0.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.8 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

4190 screens 39% overvalued. Compare with Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc →

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Jarir Marketing Co · Fair Value
11.75 SAR −39%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jarir Marketing Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4190

Peer Group

Specialty Retail · 219 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −28% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 67% · Top 25%
Return on assets 18% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Revenue growth 7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.3% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 18.1× · Pricier than median
P/B 3.10× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.46× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 4.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 4.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 30
FUTURE36 · sector 25
PAST100 · sector 27
HEALTH100 · sector 96
DIVIDEND100 · sector 56

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc ATD C$89.93 C$104.32 +16%
Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY $755.47 $398.90 −47%
Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM $235.09 $162.63 −31%
Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA $537.10 $475.40 −11%
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS $202.66 $181.10 −11%
Best Buy Co BBY $82.44 $108.04 +31%
China Tourism Group 601888 ¥54.97 ¥40.40 −27%
Tractor Supply Company TSCO $34.72 $35.52 +2%
Five Below, Inc FIVE $259.41 $117.29 −55%
Murphy USA Inc MUSA $574.12 $423.35 −26%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Jarir Marketing Co (4190) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 11.75 SAR versus a price of 16.30 SAR, about −28% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4190?
Our model-based fair value for Jarir Marketing Co is 11.75 SAR (as of Aug 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 16.30 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4190?
Jarir Marketing Co has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Jarir Marketing Co (4190)?
Jarir Marketing Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 11.7B SAR (latest available figure, as of Aug 30, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 4190?
The net profit margin of Jarir Marketing Co is about 9.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Jarir Marketing Co pay a dividend?
Jarir Marketing Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.31% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 30, 2026).
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