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Wanguo Gold Group (3939) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$36.5B

WG Wanguo Gold Group 3939 · HK
PriceHK$11.58
Fair ValueHK$4.85
Upside-58.1%
Quality61/100
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Expensive Growth
Highly profitable · 42.9% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
1.89% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Wide moat 100/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$3.26 – HK$11.38 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated today

Share price +17.2% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 58% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$3.26 to HK$11.38). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$18.17 HK$0.3511 Fair Value HK$4.85 Dec 2020 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.3511 – HK$18.17 · fair‑value band HK$3.26 – HK$11.38 · the HK$11.58 price screens above the HK$4.85 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Wanguo Gold Group (3939) currently trades at HK$11.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.85, implying the stock looks roughly 58.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Wanguo Gold Group generated revenue of HK$3.2B at a net margin of 42.9%. Revenue grew 102.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 34.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$897M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$3.26 (bear case) to HK$11.38 (bull case); at HK$11.58, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 78% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at -58%, 3939 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$3.02 HK$5.77 HK$10.28 80
Residual Income HK$2.19 HK$3.00 HK$22.09 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.78 HK$2.73 HK$4.76 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$3.19 HK$4.90 HK$10.33 38
Owner Earnings HK$2.99 HK$6.53 HK$13.95 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.64 HK$2.41 HK$4.00 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$3.71 HK$6.60 HK$12.26 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$4.00 HK$8.95 HK$15.74 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$2.09 HK$3.68 HK$4.50 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$3.63 HK$8.14 HK$16.11 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$3.84 HK$8.75 HK$16.94 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$2.09 HK$14.59 HK$20.48 54
Lynch FV HK$7.54 HK$10.77 HK$14.00 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$7.54 HK$10.77 HK$14.00 46
EPV HK$3.20 HK$3.70 HK$4.13 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.8800 HK$1.83 HK$2.90 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.8800 HK$1.54 HK$1.92 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$3.92 HK$5.23 HK$6.54 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.8100 HK$1.08 HK$1.35 58
P/B Multiple HK$2.41 HK$3.21 HK$4.02 55
EV/EBIT HK$4.94 HK$6.51 HK$8.08 53
EV/EBITDA HK$3.77 HK$4.95 HK$6.13 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.9700 HK$1.30 HK$1.62 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.5400 HK$0.7200 HK$1.07 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$3.02 HK$5.77 HK$10.28 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.78 HK$2.73 HK$4.76 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$2.19 HK$3.00 HK$22.09 76
ROIC Compounder HK$4.14 HK$6.27 HK$9.13 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$9.28 HK$13.25 HK$17.23 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$13.25) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.7200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$3.2B
Revenue growth (YoY) +103%
Net margin 42.9%
Return on equity 34.7%
Free cash flow HK$778M FY2025
P/E ratio 23.0 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 67.2%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.5500
Dividend yield 1.9%
EPS growth (YoY) +96.2%
Net cash HK$897M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 79
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 95
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 67
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 91
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 20
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 67
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Wanguo Gold Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in mining, ore processing, and sale of concentrate products in the People's Republic of China and Solomon Islands. The company offers copper concentrates, zinc concentrates, iron concentrates, sulfur concentrates, and lead concentrates, and gold and silver by-products.

Full company description

Wanguo Gold Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in mining, ore processing, and sale of concentrate products in the People's Republic of China and Solomon Islands. The company offers copper concentrates, zinc concentrates, iron concentrates, sulfur concentrates, and lead concentrates, and gold and silver by-products. The company was formerly known as Wanguo International Mining Group Limited and changed its name to Wanguo Gold Group Limited in September 2024. Wanguo Gold Group Limited was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Yichun, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Wanguo Gold Group reported revenue of HK$3.2B in FY2025 versus HK$2.0B in FY2021, a compound +11.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.4B in FY2025, compounding +62.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$3.2B
Latest YoY
+68.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+66.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+17.8%
Avg. growth/yr (16Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+25.2%
Revenue +11.9%/yr
FY21 HK$2.0B
FY22 HK$681M
FY23 HK$1.3B
FY24 HK$1.9B
FY25 HK$3.2B
Net income +62.7%/yr
FY21 HK$193M
FY22 HK$181M
FY23 HK$335M
FY24 HK$575M
FY25 HK$1.4B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +41.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share +22.7 pp

of which total revenue +28.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −6.2 pp

EBIT margin +10.9 pp
Tax rate +2.0 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +6.2 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

3939 screens 58% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →

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Wanguo Gold Group · Fair Value
HK$4.85 −58%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Wanguo Gold Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3939

Peer Group

Gold · 248 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 61 · Above median
Fair Value upside −58% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 35% · Top 25%
Return on assets 24% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 43% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 67% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 103% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.9% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 23.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 7.73× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 11.53× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 6.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 16.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 100
PAST 100 · sector 0
HEALTH 99 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 38 · sector 23

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Newmont Corporation NEMCL $112.00 $112.82 +1%
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥32.21 ¥39.42 +22%
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM C$257.82 C$154.33 -40%
Barrick Mining Corporation B $41.23 $50.66 +23%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM C$187.84 C$52.47 -72%
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV C$334.84 C$97.76 -71%
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $97.92 $88.63 -9%
Gold Fields Limited GFI $40.73 $59.06 +45%
Zijin Gold International Company 2259 HK$135.60 HK$96.81 -29%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $27.48 $34.62 +26%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Wanguo Gold Group (3939) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$4.85 versus a price of HK$11.58, about −58% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 3939?
Our model-based fair value for Wanguo Gold Group is HK$4.85 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$11.58.
What is the quality score of 3939?
Wanguo Gold Group has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Wanguo Gold Group (3939)?
Wanguo Gold Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$3.2B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 3939?
The net profit margin of Wanguo Gold Group is about 42.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 42.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Wanguo Gold Group pay a dividend?
Wanguo Gold Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.89% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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