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Wanguo International Mining Group Ltd (3939) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$36.5B (≈ $4.6B) · ISIN KYG9430L1077

What is Wanguo International Mining Group Ltd really worth?

WI Wanguo International Mining Group Ltd 3939 · HK
PriceHK$15.93
Fair ValueHK$4.85
Upside−69.5%
Quality61/100

A solid business, but trading 228% above our fair value of HK$4.85.

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Strengths

✓Highly profitable · 42.9% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 100/100

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +17.8 %/yr)
!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range HK$3.26 to HK$11.38
!Weak on dividend: 18 out of 100

For context

·0.92% dividend yield
Evidence: Medium Range HK$3.26 – HK$11.38

Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated today

Share price +37.9% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$11.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$3.26 to HK$11.38). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$18.17 HK$0.3511 Fair Value HK$4.85 Dec 2020 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.3511 – HK$18.17 · fair‑value band HK$3.26 – HK$11.38 · the HK$15.93 price screens above the HK$4.85 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

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Analysis

Wanguo International Mining Group Ltd (3939) currently trades at HK$15.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.85, implying the stock looks roughly 228.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$13.25 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$15.93 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.7200, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Wanguo International Mining Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$3.2B at a net margin of 42.9%. Revenue grew 102.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 34.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$897M. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$3.26 (bear case) to HK$11.38 (bull case); at HK$15.93, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 144% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −70%, 3939 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.2727 per share, which is 5.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
EPV HK$3.20 HK$3.70 HK$4.13 74
FCF DCF HK$3.19 HK$4.90 HK$10.33 73
Growth DCF HK$3.02 HK$5.77 HK$10.28 73
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$3.19 HK$4.90 HK$10.33 73
Owner Earnings HK$2.99 HK$6.53 HK$13.95 68
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.64 HK$2.41 HK$4.00 69
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$3.71 HK$6.60 HK$12.26 69
5Y P/E Exit HK$4.00 HK$8.95 HK$15.74 65
10Y Revenue Exit HK$2.09 HK$3.68 HK$4.50 65
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$3.63 HK$8.14 HK$16.11 62
10Y P/E Exit HK$3.84 HK$8.75 HK$16.94 58
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$2.09 HK$14.59 HK$20.48 61
Lynch FV HK$7.54 HK$10.77 HK$14.00 59
PEG = 1.0 HK$7.54 HK$10.77 HK$14.00 55
EPV HK$3.20 HK$3.70 HK$4.13 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.8800 HK$1.83 HK$2.90 64
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.8800 HK$1.54 HK$1.92 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$3.92 HK$5.23 HK$6.54 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.8100 HK$1.08 HK$1.35 58
P/B Multiple HK$2.41 HK$3.21 HK$4.02 55
EV/EBIT HK$4.94 HK$6.51 HK$8.08 66
EV/EBITDA HK$3.77 HK$4.95 HK$6.13 67
EV/Revenue HK$0.9700 HK$1.30 HK$1.62 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.5400 HK$0.7200 HK$1.07 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$3.02 HK$5.77 HK$10.28 73
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.78 HK$2.73 HK$4.76 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$2.19 HK$3.00 HK$22.09 61
ROIC Compounder HK$4.14 HK$6.27 HK$9.13 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$9.28 HK$13.25 HK$17.23 65

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$13.25) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.7200). Highest evidence: EPV (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 23.0 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 9.86 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.5500 price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.0
Dividend yield 0.9% payout 26.7%
Net margin 42.9% FY2025
Return on equity 34.7% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 18.6% avg 5y
Operating margin 67.2% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$3.2B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +103% 3y avg +66.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +96.2%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$778M FY2025
Net cash HK$897M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64

Profitability 79
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 95
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 67
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 91
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 20
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 78
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 90
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Wanguo Gold Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in mining, ore processing, and sale of concentrate products in the People's Republic of China and Solomon Islands. The company offers copper concentrates, zinc concentrates, iron concentrates, sulfur concentrates, and lead concentrates, and gold and silver by-products.

Full company description

Wanguo Gold Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in mining, ore processing, and sale of concentrate products in the People's Republic of China and Solomon Islands. The company offers copper concentrates, zinc concentrates, iron concentrates, sulfur concentrates, and lead concentrates, and gold and silver by-products. The company was formerly known as Wanguo International Mining Group Limited and changed its name to Wanguo Gold Group Limited in September 2024. Wanguo Gold Group Limited was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Yichun, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Wanguo International Mining Group Ltd reported revenue of 3.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +11.9%/yr. Reported net income was 1.4B CNY in FY2025, compounding +62.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$3.2B
Latest YoY
+68.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+66.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+17.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (16Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+25.2%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+60.2% (59.3 + 0.9)
Revenue +11.9%/yr
FY21 2.0B CNY
FY22 681M CNY
FY23 1.3B CNY
FY24 1.9B CNY
FY25 3.2B CNY
Net income +62.7%/yr
FY21 193M CNY
FY22 181M CNY
FY23 335M CNY
FY24 575M CNY
FY25 1.4B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +41.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share +22.7 %

of which total revenue +28.9 % · buybacks/dilution −4.8 %

EBIT margin +10.9 %
Tax rate +2.0 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +2.2 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

3939 screens 228% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →

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Wanguo International Mining Group Ltd · Fair Value
HK$4.85 −228%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Wanguo International Mining Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3939

Peer Group

Gold · 245 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 61 · Above median
Fair Value upside −70% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 35% · Top 25%
Return on assets 24% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 43% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 67% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 103% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.9% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 23.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 7.73× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 11.53× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 6.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 16.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 100
PAST100 · sector 2
HEALTH99 · sector 98
DIVIDEND18 · sector 20

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Newmont Corporation NEMCL $128.00 $112.82 −12%
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥32.21 ¥39.42 +22%
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM C$268.76 C$213.40 −21%
Barrick Mining Corporation B $41.23 $50.66 +23%
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV $271.31 $96.63 −64%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM C$201.40 C$56.05 −72%
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $97.92 $88.63 −9%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $32.51 $34.62 +6%
Royal Gold, Inc RGLD $262.85 $93.56 −64%
Northern Star Resources Limited NST A$23.19 A$15.98 −31%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Wanguo International Mining Group Ltd (3939) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$4.85 versus a price of HK$15.93, about −70% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 3939?
Our model-based fair value for Wanguo International Mining Group Ltd is HK$4.85 (as of Sep 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$15.93.
What is the quality score of 3939?
Wanguo International Mining Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Wanguo International Mining Group Ltd (3939)?
Wanguo International Mining Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$3.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 3939?
The net profit margin of Wanguo International Mining Group Ltd is about 42.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 42.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Wanguo International Mining Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Wanguo International Mining Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.92% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 5, 2026).
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