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Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd-H (2899) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$791B (≈ $101B) · ISIN CNE100000502

What is Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd-H really worth?

ZM Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd-H 2899 · HK
PriceHK$36.60
Fair ValueHK$46.50
Upside+27.1%
Quality66/100

A solid business, trading 21% below our fair value of HK$46.50.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +15.3 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 16.7% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (10/15)
✓Wide moat 80/100

Risks

!The models disagree: range HK$32.52 to HK$89.74

For context

·2.52% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range HK$32.52 – HK$89.74

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$38.33 to HK$46.50 (+21.3%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +4.0% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$32.52 to HK$89.74). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$45.50 HK$6.62 Fair Value HK$46.50 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$6.62 – HK$45.50 · fair‑value band HK$32.52 – HK$89.74 · the HK$36.60 price screens below the HK$46.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd-H (2899) currently trades at HK$36.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$46.50, implying the stock looks roughly 21.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$62.06 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$36.60 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$5.67, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd-H generated revenue of HK$369B at a net margin of 16.7%. Revenue grew 24.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.8%. Net debt stands at HK$104B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$32.52 (bear case) to HK$89.74 (bull case); at HK$36.60, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 111% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 27%, 2899 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.9202 per share, which is 2.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$32.26 HK$56.98 HK$130.05 74
EPV HK$28.10 HK$33.39 HK$38.09 74
Growth DCF HK$30.75 HK$64.69 HK$132.45 73
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$32.26 HK$56.98 HK$130.05 74
Owner Earnings HK$27.09 HK$65.95 HK$151.19 69
5Y Revenue Exit HK$20.33 HK$37.60 HK$70.92 69
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$31.77 HK$62.37 HK$118.29 71
5Y P/E Exit HK$29.20 HK$62.06 HK$104.22 68
10Y Revenue Exit HK$22.99 HK$45.88 HK$72.22 65
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$31.95 HK$68.04 HK$133.92 64
10Y P/E Exit HK$30.10 HK$63.06 HK$119.40 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$16.18 HK$112.83 HK$158.34 63
Lynch FV HK$33.53 HK$47.90 HK$62.26 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$33.53 HK$47.90 HK$62.26 57
EPV HK$28.10 HK$33.39 HK$38.09 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$5.71 HK$12.48 HK$20.99 65
DDM Multi-Stage HK$5.71 HK$10.22 HK$13.00 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$30.34 HK$40.45 HK$50.56 63
P/S Multiple HK$18.05 HK$24.06 HK$30.08 58
P/B Multiple HK$19.03 HK$25.37 HK$31.71 55
EV/EBIT HK$37.77 HK$50.97 HK$64.18 66
EV/EBITDA HK$32.05 HK$43.35 HK$54.65 67
EV/Revenue HK$14.99 HK$22.21 HK$29.43 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$4.23 HK$5.67 HK$8.46 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$30.75 HK$64.69 HK$132.45 73
Rev-Margin DCF HK$20.33 HK$40.04 HK$69.42 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$17.72 HK$24.84 HK$201.29 64
ROIC Compounder HK$35.43 HK$52.47 HK$76.57 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$42.04 HK$60.05 HK$78.07 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$62.06) versus Asset-Based (HK$5.67). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 11.4 as of Jul 17, 2026
P/S ratio 1.68 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$2.28 price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.4
Dividend yield 2.5% payout 40.4%
Net margin 14.8% FY2025
Return on equity 33.8% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 11.9% avg 5y
Operating margin 29.6% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$369B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +24.8% 3y avg +8.9%
EPS growth (YoY) +95.7%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$44.5B FY2025
Net debt HK$104B FY2025 · ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 66/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57

Profitability 61
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 69
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 60
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 70
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 23
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 40
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 57
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 76
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 89
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Zijin Mining Group Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in exploration and extraction of metals in Mainland China and internationally.

Full company description

Zijin Mining Group Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in exploration and extraction of metals in Mainland China and internationally. The company offers copper, gold, zinc concentrate, lead concentrate, silver, lithium, iron concentrate, tungsten concentrate, and molybdenum concentrate; smelted copper, smelted and processed gold and silver, smelted zinc ingots, sulfuric acid, and battery -grade lithium carbonate; and copper pipes, copper plates and strips, potassium gold cyanide, and other products. It is also involved in mineral resource exploration; gold and copper mining and beneficiation; gold and copper smelting ; sales of jewelry and mineral products; investment in the mining industry; foreign trade; open-pit mining of copper and gold mines and underground mining of copper mines; manufacturing of special equipment for environmental protection; air pollution control; water pollution control; solid waste treatment; waste incineration power generation and hazardous waste disposal; and other services. The company holds 100% interest in the Shapinggou Molybdenum mine in Jinzhai County, Anhui Province. The company was formerly known as Fujian Zijin Mining Industry Company Limited and changed its name to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited in June 2004. Zijin Mining Group Company Limited was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Longyan, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd-H reported revenue of 349B CNY in FY2025 versus 225B CNY in FY2021, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was 51.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +34.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$349B
Latest YoY
+15.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (21Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+29.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+52.5% (50.0 + 2.5)
Revenue +11.6%/yr
FY21 225B CNY
FY22 270B CNY
FY23 293B CNY
FY24 304B CNY
FY25 349B CNY
Net income +34.8%/yr
FY21 15.7B CNY
FY22 20.0B CNY
FY23 21.1B CNY
FY24 32.1B CNY
FY25 51.8B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +34.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share +15.4 %

of which total revenue +18.1 % · buybacks/dilution −2.3 %

EBIT margin +18.8 %
Tax rate +0.3 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −2.0 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd-H Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2899

Peer Group

Gold · 245 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +27% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 34% · Top 25%
Return on assets 12% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 17% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 30% · Above median
Revenue growth 25% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.5% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.58× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B 4.30× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.15× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 2.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 7.7× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.06× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE69 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 100
PAST100 · sector 2
HEALTH71 · sector 98
DIVIDEND50 · sector 20

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Newmont Corporation NEMCL $128.00 $112.82 −12%
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM C$268.76 C$213.40 −21%
Barrick Mining Corporation B $41.23 $50.66 +23%
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV $271.31 $96.63 −64%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM C$201.40 C$56.05 −72%
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $97.92 $88.63 −9%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $32.51 $34.62 +6%
Royal Gold, Inc RGLD $262.85 $93.56 −64%
Northern Star Resources Limited NST A$23.19 A$15.98 −31%
Lundin Gold Inc LUG kr 708.00 kr 504.76 −29%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd-H (2899) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$46.50 versus a price of HK$36.60, about +27% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2899?
Our model-based fair value for Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd-H is HK$46.50 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$36.60.
What is the quality score of 2899?
Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd-H has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd-H (2899)?
Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd-H reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$369B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2899?
The net profit margin of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd-H is about 16.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 16.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd-H pay a dividend?
Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd-H currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.52% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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