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Li Ning Co Ltd (2331) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$37.7B (≈ $4.8B) · ISIN KYG5496K1242

What is Li Ning Co Ltd really worth?

LN Li Ning Co Ltd 2331 · HK
PriceHK$13.53
Fair ValueHK$29.50
Upside+118.0%
Quality72/100

A solid business, trading 54% below our fair value of HK$29.50.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +15.4 %/yr)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (13/15)

Risks

!Thin margins · 9.9% net margin
!Moderate moat 51/100
!Weak on future: 16 out of 100

For context

·4.39% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range HK$22.13 – HK$36.88

Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 14 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 22, 2026, revised from HK$29.45 to HK$29.50 (+0.2%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −8.8% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$22.13). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$95.55 HK$12.10 Fair Value HK$29.50 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$12.10 – HK$95.55 · fair‑value band HK$22.13 – HK$36.88 · the HK$13.53 price screens below the HK$29.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.

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Analysis

Li Ning Co Ltd (2331) currently trades at HK$13.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$29.50, implying the stock looks roughly 54.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$38.92 per share, and 22 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$13.53 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$7.26, and 4 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Li Ning Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$29.6B at a net margin of 9.9%. Revenue grew 3.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$14.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$22.13 (bear case) to HK$36.88 (bull case); at HK$13.53, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 118%, 2331 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.0512 per share, which is 0.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$29.84 HK$48.81 HK$81.89 78
Growth DCF HK$29.66 HK$47.06 HK$76.58 77
Owner Earnings HK$21.70 HK$34.04 HK$55.56 75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$29.84 HK$48.81 HK$81.89 78
Owner Earnings HK$21.70 HK$34.04 HK$55.56 75
5Y Revenue Exit HK$20.56 HK$28.95 HK$39.96 73
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$25.40 HK$38.92 HK$55.73 75
5Y P/E Exit HK$25.93 HK$40.02 HK$56.04 71
10Y Revenue Exit HK$23.16 HK$32.18 HK$45.37 67
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$26.70 HK$39.50 HK$58.59 68
10Y P/E Exit HK$27.05 HK$40.30 HK$58.85 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$7.83 HK$36.51 HK$50.17 64
Lynch FV HK$9.64 HK$13.78 HK$17.91 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$9.64 HK$13.78 HK$17.91 57
EPV HK$16.43 HK$18.08 HK$19.52 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$4.91 HK$10.21 HK$16.19 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$4.91 HK$8.61 HK$10.71 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$18.99 HK$25.32 HK$31.65 63
P/S Multiple HK$10.44 HK$13.93 HK$17.41 58
P/B Multiple HK$14.68 HK$19.57 HK$24.46 55
EV/EBIT HK$27.19 HK$34.07 HK$40.95 66
EV/EBITDA HK$24.70 HK$30.75 HK$36.80 67
EV/Revenue HK$16.31 HK$20.48 HK$24.66 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$5.42 HK$7.26 HK$10.84 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$29.66 HK$47.06 HK$76.58 77
Rev-Margin DCF HK$20.56 HK$28.95 HK$39.84 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$9.71 HK$10.91 HK$17.94 74
ROIC Compounder HK$17.79 HK$21.57 HK$26.38 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$15.73 HK$22.48 HK$29.22 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$38.92) versus Asset-Based (HK$7.26). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 11.3 as of Jul 19, 2026
P/S ratio 1.12 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.6700 price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.3
Dividend yield 4.4% payout 88.7%
Net margin 9.9% FY2025
Return on equity 10.9% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 12.5% avg 5y
Operating margin 10.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$29.6B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +3.1% 3y avg +4.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +12.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$4.6B FY2025
Net cash HK$14.6B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 72/100

Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23

Profitability 54
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 78
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 83
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 10
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 85
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Li Ning Company Limited, a sports brand company, engages in the research and development, design, manufacture, marketing, distribution, and retail of sporting goods in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company offers sporting goods, including professional and leisure footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories under the LI-NING brand.

Full company description

Li Ning Company Limited, a sports brand company, engages in the research and development, design, manufacture, marketing, distribution, and retail of sporting goods in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company offers sporting goods, including professional and leisure footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories under the LI-NING brand. It also develops, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells outdoor sports products under the AIGLE brand; table tennis products under the Double Happiness brand name; and badminton products under the Kason brand name. In addition, the company provides brand licensing, administrative, research and development, and property management services. Further, it operates conventional stores, flagship stores, China LI-NING stores, factory outlets, and multi-brand stores under the LI-NING brand. Li Ning Company Limited was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Li Ning Co Ltd reported revenue of 29.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 22.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was 2.9B CNY in FY2025, compounding −7.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$29.6B
Latest YoY
+3.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (21Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+15.3% (10.9 + 4.4)
Revenue +7.0%/yr
FY21 22.6B CNY
FY22 25.8B CNY
FY23 27.6B CNY
FY24 28.7B CNY
FY25 29.6B CNY
Net income −7.5%/yr
FY21 4.0B CNY
FY22 4.1B CNY
FY23 3.2B CNY
FY24 3.0B CNY
FY25 2.9B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2025) +27.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share +14.7 %

of which total revenue +17.0 % · buybacks/dilution −2.0 %

EBIT margin +16.3 %
Tax rate −2.0 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −2.6 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Li Ning Co Ltd · Fair Value
HK$29.50 +54%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Li Ning Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2331

Peer Group

Leisure · 190 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +118% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Above median
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Revenue growth 3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.4% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.37× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.28× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 1.53× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 16
FUTURE16 · sector 14
PAST44 · sector 19
HEALTH100 · sector 94
DIVIDEND88 · sector 55

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
ANTA Sports Products Limited 82020 HK$65.10 HK$97.98 +51%
Pop Mart International Group 9992 HK$158.70 HK$227.30 +43%
Amer Sports, Inc AS $33.03 $16.16 −51%
Hasbro, Inc HAS $94.10 $81.97 −13%
Life Time Group LTH $45.40 $15.61 −66%
Li Ning Company 82331 HK$11.62 HK$11.48 −1%
Acushnet Holdings GOLF $89.10 $36.89 −59%
Ninebot Limited 689009 ¥44.94 ¥39.73 −12%
Mattel, Inc MAT $15.26 $18.93 +24%
Planet Fitness, Inc PLNT $53.33 $52.62 −1%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Li Ning Co Ltd (2331) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$29.50 versus a price of HK$13.53, about +118% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2331?
Our model-based fair value for Li Ning Co Ltd is HK$29.50 (as of Aug 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$13.53.
What is the quality score of 2331?
Li Ning Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Li Ning Co Ltd (2331)?
Li Ning Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$29.6B (latest available figure, as of Aug 22, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2331?
The net profit margin of Li Ning Co Ltd is about 9.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Li Ning Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Li Ning Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.39% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 22, 2026).
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