ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (2057) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$137B
Fair value as of: Aug 12, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 12, 2026, revised from HK$241.93 to HK$224.26 (−7.3%) since Jul 5, 2026. Share price −6.8% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 26% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- Our model range runs from HK$157.43 (bear) to HK$280.76 (bull), base HK$224.26. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 66/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$114.35 – HK$229.59 · fair‑value band HK$157.43 – HK$280.76 · the HK$178.20 price screens below the HK$224.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 12, 2026.
Analysis
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (2057) currently trades at HK$178.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$224.26, implying the stock looks roughly 25.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc generated revenue of HK$51.5B at a net margin of 17.9%. Revenue grew 22.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.9%. Net debt stands at HK$1.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$157.43 (bear case) to HK$280.76 (bull case); at HK$178.20, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at 26%, 2057 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$270.59) versus Asset-Based (HK$54.21). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It also offers less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics services; integrated logistics solutions for warehousing, distribution, and transportation; and freight forwarding services.
Full company description
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It also offers less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics services; integrated logistics solutions for warehousing, distribution, and transportation; and freight forwarding services. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc reported revenue of HK$47.8B in FY2025 versus HK$30.4B in FY2021, a compound +12.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$8.8B in FY2025, compounding +16.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +23.3 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.7 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch 2057: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ZTO Express (ZTO) Stock Still Looks Cheap As It Returned 35%
- Should Value Investors Buy ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO) Stock?
- ZTO Express' EPS Estimates Northbound: Time to Buy the Stock?
Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 218 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $103.91 | $103.34 | -1% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $326.77 | $347.68 | +6% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €55.32 | €53.18 | -4% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,380 | kr 712.57 | -48% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $275.96 | $133.80 | -52% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥32.96 | ¥48.64 | +48% |
| Hyundai Glovis Co 086280 | 199,700 KRW | 468,982 KRW | +135% |
| YTO Express Group 600233 | ¥18.48 | ¥26.51 | +43% |
| JD Logistics, Inc 2618 | HK$14.17 | HK$21.45 | +51% |
| Sinotrans Limited 601598 | ¥6.46 | ¥7.38 | +14% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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