YTO Express Group (600233) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 64.0B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from ¥26.51 to ¥15.86 (−40.2%) since Aug 7, 2026. Share price +8.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 16% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from ¥11.89 (bear) to ¥19.82 (bull), base ¥15.86. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 59/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥8.63 – ¥22.38 · fair‑value band ¥11.89 – ¥19.82 · the ¥18.90 price screens above the ¥15.86 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
YTO Express Group (600233) currently trades at ¥18.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥15.86, implying the stock looks roughly 16.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, YTO Express Group generated revenue of 77.0B CNY at a net margin of 6.3%. Revenue grew 10.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 2.4B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥11.89 (bear case) to ¥19.82 (bull case); at ¥18.90, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at -16%, 600233 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥42.92) versus Dividend Discount (¥6.32). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
YTO Express Group Co.,Ltd. provides express delivery services to franchisees in China and internationally. It operates through Express Business, Freight Forwarding Business, and Aviation Business segments.
Full company description
YTO Express Group Co.,Ltd. provides express delivery services to franchisees in China and internationally. It operates through Express Business, Freight Forwarding Business, and Aviation Business segments. The company offers express services; warehousing and supply chain services, such as transfer services, warehousing system, and integrated warehousing and delivery; industry solutions, including platform and scene solutions; value added services comprising front, terminal, and full chain services. It also provides digital products consisting of YTO Neighbors, Yunmeng, and CRM and ERP; procurement, factoring, and payment settlement services; air, rail, multimodal, sea, and land freight; charter, airport operations, and self-operated routers; Yi Tong and shared products; and customs services. YTO Express Group Co.,Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is based in Shanghai, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
YTO Express Group reported revenue of ¥75.3B in FY2025 versus ¥45.2B in FY2021, a compound +13.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥4.3B in FY2025, compounding +19.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +24.6 pp · buybacks/dilution −16.9 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
600233 screens 16% overvalued. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →
Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 218 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $103.91 | $103.34 | -1% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $326.77 | $347.68 | +6% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €55.32 | €53.18 | -4% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,380 | kr 712.57 | -48% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $275.96 | $133.80 | -52% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥32.96 | ¥48.64 | +48% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$185.20 | HK$224.26 | +21% |
| Hyundai Glovis Co 086280 | 199,700 KRW | 468,982 KRW | +135% |
| JD Logistics, Inc 2618 | HK$14.17 | HK$21.45 | +51% |
| Sinotrans Limited 601598 | ¥6.46 | ¥7.38 | +14% |
Compare YTO Express Group with another stock
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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