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Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$117B (≈ $14.9B) · ISIN KYG211461085

What is Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd really worth?

CT Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd 1929 · HK
PriceHK$12.08
Fair ValueHK$11.51
Upside−4.7%
Quality65/100

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of HK$11.51.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (10/14)
✓Wide moat 72/100

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +6.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.5% net margin
!The models disagree: range HK$5.88 to HK$22.64
!Weak on valuation: 27 out of 100

For context

·4.47% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range HK$5.88 – HK$22.64

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$12.28 to HK$11.51 (−6.3%) since Jul 19, 2026. Share price +1.9% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$5.88 to HK$22.64). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$16.35 HK$5.47 Fair Value HK$11.51 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$5.47 – HK$16.35 · fair‑value band HK$5.88 – HK$22.64 · the HK$12.08 price screens above the HK$11.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929) currently trades at HK$12.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$11.51, implying the stock looks roughly 5.0% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$17.42 per share, and 11 of the 25 models we run sit above the HK$12.08 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.98, and 14 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$89.2B at a net margin of 6.6%. Revenue declined 1.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.4%. Net debt stands at HK$20.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$5.88 (bear case) to HK$22.64 (bull case); at HK$12.08, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −5%, 1929 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$0.5900 HK$0.8500 HK$1.24 80
Growth DCF HK$0.6000 HK$0.8300 HK$1.16 79
Owner Earnings HK$11.67 HK$17.86 HK$27.18 76
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.5900 HK$0.8500 HK$1.24 80
Owner Earnings HK$11.67 HK$17.86 HK$27.18 76
5Y Revenue Exit HK$5.23 HK$9.48 HK$14.99 71
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$10.74 HK$19.68 HK$30.19 74
5Y P/E Exit HK$8.94 HK$16.36 HK$24.15 69
10Y Revenue Exit HK$3.29 HK$6.77 HK$11.58 64
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$7.03 HK$13.82 HK$23.08 66
10Y P/E Exit HK$5.89 HK$11.52 HK$18.51 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$6.21 HK$18.40 HK$24.35 65
Lynch FV HK$3.87 HK$5.53 HK$7.19 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$3.87 HK$5.53 HK$7.19 57
EPV HK$14.87 HK$17.33 HK$19.48 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$4.96 HK$10.31 HK$16.35 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$4.96 HK$8.03 HK$10.82 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$15.06 HK$20.08 HK$25.10 63
P/S Multiple HK$8.61 HK$11.48 HK$14.35 58
P/B Multiple HK$8.88 HK$11.84 HK$14.79 55
EV/EBIT HK$24.95 HK$33.23 HK$41.51 66
EV/EBITDA HK$18.28 HK$24.34 HK$30.39 67
EV/Revenue HK$8.14 HK$11.59 HK$15.03 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.48 HK$1.98 HK$2.96 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.6000 HK$0.8300 HK$1.16 79
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$5.66 HK$7.12 HK$31.54 64
ROIC Compounder HK$15.48 HK$18.77 HK$22.16 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$12.19 HK$17.42 HK$22.64 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$17.42) versus Growth DCF (HK$0.8300). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 19.7 as of Jun 7, 2026
P/S ratio 1.88 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.1300 price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.7
Dividend yield 4.5%
Net margin 9.5% FY2026
Return on equity 22.4% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 14.2% avg 5y
Operating margin 16.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$89.2B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −1.1% 3y avg −0.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +0.8%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$425M FY2026
Net debt HK$20.2B FY2026 · ≈ 47.5 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 72
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 62
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 12
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 66
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 65
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 21
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 62
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells jewelry products in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and internationally. The company provides gem-set, platinum and k-gold jewelry, and gold jewelry products under the CHOW TAI FOOK, HEARTS ON FIRE, ENZO, MONOLOGUE, and SOINLOVE brand names.

Full company description

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells jewelry products in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and internationally. The company provides gem-set, platinum and k-gold jewelry, and gold jewelry products under the CHOW TAI FOOK, HEARTS ON FIRE, ENZO, MONOLOGUE, and SOINLOVE brand names. It also distributes watches of various brands. In addition, the company is involved in the trading of diamonds; and the provision of services to franchisees. It sells its products through online platforms, as well as stores. The company was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong. Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited is a subsidiary of Chow Tai Fook Capital Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$94.4B in FY2026 versus HK$98.9B in FY2022, a compound −1.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$9.0B in FY2026, compounding +7.6%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 56/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
HK$94.4B
Latest YoY
+5.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (17Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.1%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+12.2% (7.7 + 4.5)
Revenue −1.2%/yr
FY22 HK$98.9B
FY23 HK$94.7B
FY24 HK$109B
FY25 HK$89.7B
FY26 HK$94.4B
Net income +7.6%/yr
FY22 HK$6.7B
FY23 HK$5.4B
FY24 HK$6.5B
FY25 HK$5.9B
FY26 HK$9.0B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) +7.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +6.0 %

of which total revenue +6.1 % · buybacks/dilution −0.1 %

EBIT margin +5.2 %
Tax rate −0.3 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −3.7 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1929

Peer Group

Luxury Goods · 135 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −5% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 31% · Top 25%
Return on assets 14% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 21% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 10% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.5% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.25× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Luxury Goods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 19.7× · Pricier than median
P/B 3.99× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.24× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 35.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 6.1× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE27 · sector 10
FUTURE52 · sector 48
PAST100 · sector 40
HEALTH88 · sector 99
DIVIDEND89 · sector 41

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Luxury Goods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

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Titan Company TITAN ₹5,106 ₹972.23 −81%
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Prada S.p.A 1913 HK$40.86 HK$64.71 +58%
Pandora A/S PNDORA kr 783.00 kr 1,424 +82%
Laopu Gold Co 6181 HK$385.00 HK$654.83 +70%
Brunello Cucinelli S.p.A BC €89.08 €34.90 −61%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$11.51 versus a price of HK$12.08, about −5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 1929?
Our model-based fair value for Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd is HK$11.51 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$12.08.
What is the quality score of 1929?
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929)?
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$89.2B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1929?
The net profit margin of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd is about 6.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.47% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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