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Prada SpA (1913) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$98.8B (≈ $12.6B) · ISIN IT0003874101

What is Prada SpA really worth?

PS Prada SpA 1913 · HK
PriceHK$39.34
Fair ValueHK$64.71
Upside+64.5%
Quality62/100

A solid business, trading 39% below our fair value of HK$64.71.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +18.7 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 14.9% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 69/100

Risks

!Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
!Weak on future: 17 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 8 out of 100

For context

·0.42% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range HK$41.48 – HK$83.66

Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 9 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 27, 2026, revised from HK$64.07 to HK$64.71 (+1.0%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −13.5% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$41.48). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$41.48 to HK$83.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$65.57 HK$31.47 Fair Value HK$64.71 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$31.47 – HK$65.57 · fair‑value band HK$41.48 – HK$83.66 · the HK$39.34 price screens below the HK$64.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Prada SpA (1913) currently trades at HK$39.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$64.71, implying the stock looks roughly 39.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$7.22 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$39.34 price. Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at HK$6.54, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Prada SpA generated revenue of HK$5.7B at a net margin of 14.9%. Revenue grew 3.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.0%. Net debt stands at HK$3.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$41.48 (bear case) to HK$83.66 (bull case); at HK$39.34, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 64%, 1913 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (HK$1.22 to HK$9.81). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$4.49 HK$7.08 HK$11.08 79
Growth DCF HK$4.56 HK$6.84 HK$10.13 78
Owner Earnings HK$4.69 HK$7.40 HK$11.57 75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$4.49 HK$7.08 HK$11.08 79
Owner Earnings HK$4.69 HK$7.40 HK$11.57 75
5Y Revenue Exit HK$2.72 HK$3.95 HK$5.48 73
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$5.82 HK$9.81 HK$14.49 74
5Y P/E Exit HK$4.75 HK$7.79 HK$10.99 70
10Y Revenue Exit HK$3.26 HK$4.54 HK$6.20 67
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$5.30 HK$8.62 HK$13.13 67
10Y P/E Exit HK$4.62 HK$7.22 HK$10.43 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$2.26 HK$7.32 HK$9.78 64
Lynch FV HK$1.63 HK$2.33 HK$3.03 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$1.63 HK$2.33 HK$3.03 57
EPV HK$3.54 HK$4.13 HK$4.64 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$1.45 HK$3.01 HK$4.78 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.45 HK$2.44 HK$3.16 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$5.49 HK$7.32 HK$9.16 63
P/S Multiple HK$2.01 HK$2.68 HK$3.35 58
P/B Multiple HK$4.24 HK$5.66 HK$7.07 55
EV/EBIT HK$6.84 HK$9.13 HK$11.41 66
EV/EBITDA HK$7.32 HK$9.76 HK$12.20 67
EV/Revenue HK$1.87 HK$2.67 HK$3.48 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.9100 HK$1.22 HK$1.81 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$4.56 HK$6.84 HK$10.13 78
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.72 HK$4.00 HK$5.51 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$2.15 HK$2.74 HK$7.99 66
ROIC Compounder HK$3.81 HK$4.84 HK$6.06 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$4.58 HK$6.54 HK$8.51 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$7.22) versus Asset-Based (HK$1.22). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 13.0 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 1.93 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.1500 price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.0
Dividend yield 0.4% payout 111%
Net margin 14.9% FY2025
Return on equity 19.0% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 11.7% avg 5y
Operating margin 22.8% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$5.7B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +3.3% 3y avg +10.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +2.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$1.0B FY2025
Net debt HK$3.6B FY2025 · ≈ 3.5 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 59
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 24
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 77
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 75
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 44
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 65
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 34
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Prada S.p.A. produces and distributes leather goods, footwear, and ready-to-wear products worldwide. The company offers its products under the Prada, Miu Miu, Church's, Car Shoe, and Versace brands.

Full company description

Prada S.p.A. produces and distributes leather goods, footwear, and ready-to-wear products worldwide. The company offers its products under the Prada, Miu Miu, Church's, Car Shoe, and Versace brands. It also operates in food sector under the Marchesi 1824 brand; sailing races business under Luna Rossa brand name; eyewear and fragrances sector under licensing agreements. The company sells its products through a network of owned operated stores, e-commerce channels, department stores, independent retailers, and e-tailers. The company was founded in 1913 and is headquartered in Milan, Italy. Prada S.p.A. is a subsidiary of Prada Holding S.P.A.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Prada SpA reported revenue of €5.7B in FY2025 versus €3.4B in FY2021, a compound +14.2%/yr. Reported net income was €852M in FY2025, compounding +30.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$5.7B
Latest YoY
+5.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (17Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+25.8% (25.4 + 0.4)
Revenue +14.2%/yr
FY21 €3.4B
FY22 €4.2B
FY23 €4.7B
FY24 €5.4B
FY25 €5.7B
Net income +30.4%/yr
FY21 €294M
FY22 €465M
FY23 €671M
FY24 €839M
FY25 €852M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +9.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +4.9 %

of which total revenue +4.9 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %

EBIT margin +4.2 %
Tax rate +0.3 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Prada SpA · Fair Value
HK$64.71 +39%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Prada SpA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1913

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Luxury Goods · 135 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 62 · Above median
Fair Value upside +65% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 19% · Above median
Return on assets 8% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 23% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.4% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.28× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Luxury Goods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.71× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.20× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 12.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 8.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG 2.14× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 10
FUTURE17 · sector 48
PAST76 · sector 40
HEALTH86 · sector 99
DIVIDEND8 · sector 41

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Frequently asked questions

Is Prada SpA (1913) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$64.71 versus a price of HK$39.34, about +64% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1913?
Our model-based fair value for Prada SpA is HK$64.71 (as of Aug 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$39.34.
What is the quality score of 1913?
Prada SpA has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Prada SpA (1913)?
Prada SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$5.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 27, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1913?
The net profit margin of Prada SpA is about 14.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 14.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Prada SpA pay a dividend?
Prada SpA currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.42% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 27, 2026).
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