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Prada S.p.A (1913) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$98.8B

PS Prada S.p.A 1913 · HK
PriceHK$41.66
Fair ValueHK$64.07
Upside+53.8%
Quality62/100
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Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 14.9% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
0.42% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
Wide moat 69/100
Evidence: High Range HK$41.07 – HK$82.83 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price +1.6% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 54% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$41.07 to HK$82.83) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$65.57 HK$31.47 Fair Value HK$64.07 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$31.47 – HK$65.57 · fair‑value band HK$41.07 – HK$82.83 · the HK$41.66 price screens below the HK$64.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Prada S.p.A (1913) currently trades at HK$41.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$64.07, implying the stock looks roughly 53.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Prada S.p.A generated revenue of HK$5.7B at a net margin of 14.9%. Revenue grew 3.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.0%. Net debt stands at HK$3.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$41.07 (bear case) to HK$82.83 (bull case); at HK$41.66, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -39% fair-value upside, at 54%, 1913 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (HK$1.22 to HK$9.81). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$4.56 HK$6.84 HK$10.13 80
Residual Income HK$2.15 HK$2.74 HK$7.99 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.72 HK$4.00 HK$5.51 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$4.49 HK$7.08 HK$11.08 38
Owner Earnings HK$4.69 HK$7.40 HK$11.57 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$2.72 HK$3.95 HK$5.48 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$5.82 HK$9.81 HK$14.49 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$4.75 HK$7.79 HK$10.99 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$3.26 HK$4.54 HK$6.20 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$5.30 HK$8.62 HK$13.13 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$4.62 HK$7.22 HK$10.43 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$2.26 HK$7.32 HK$9.78 54
Lynch FV HK$1.63 HK$2.33 HK$3.03 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$1.63 HK$2.33 HK$3.03 46
EPV HK$3.54 HK$4.13 HK$4.64 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$1.45 HK$3.01 HK$4.78 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.45 HK$2.44 HK$3.16 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$5.49 HK$7.32 HK$9.16 63
P/S Multiple HK$2.01 HK$2.68 HK$3.35 58
P/B Multiple HK$4.24 HK$5.66 HK$7.07 55
EV/EBIT HK$6.84 HK$9.13 HK$11.41 53
EV/EBITDA HK$7.32 HK$9.76 HK$12.20 54
EV/Revenue HK$1.87 HK$2.67 HK$3.48 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.9100 HK$1.22 HK$1.81 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$4.56 HK$6.84 HK$10.13 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.72 HK$4.00 HK$5.51 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$2.15 HK$2.74 HK$7.99 76
ROIC Compounder HK$3.81 HK$4.84 HK$6.06 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$4.58 HK$6.54 HK$8.51 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$7.22) versus Asset-Based (HK$1.22). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$5.7B
Revenue growth (YoY) +3.3%
Net margin 14.9%
Return on equity 19.0%
Free cash flow HK$1.0B FY2025
P/E ratio 13.0 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 22.8%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.1500
Dividend yield 0.4%
EPS growth (YoY) +2.3%
Net debt HK$3.6B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 59
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 24
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 77
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 75
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 44
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 65
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 51
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 45
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Prada S.p.A. produces and distributes leather goods, footwear, and ready-to-wear products worldwide. The company offers its products under the Prada, Miu Miu, Church's, Car Shoe, and Versace brands.

Full company description

Prada S.p.A. produces and distributes leather goods, footwear, and ready-to-wear products worldwide. The company offers its products under the Prada, Miu Miu, Church's, Car Shoe, and Versace brands. It also operates in food sector under the Marchesi 1824 brand; sailing races business under Luna Rossa brand name; eyewear and fragrances sector under licensing agreements. The company sells its products through a network of owned operated stores, e-commerce channels, department stores, independent retailers, and e-tailers. The company was founded in 1913 and is headquartered in Milan, Italy. Prada S.p.A. is a subsidiary of Prada Holding S.P.A.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Prada S.p.A reported revenue of HK$5.7B in FY2025 versus HK$3.4B in FY2021, a compound +14.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$852M in FY2025, compounding +30.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$5.7B
Latest YoY
+5.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.7%
Avg. growth/yr (17Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.6%
Revenue +14.2%/yr
FY21 HK$3.4B
FY22 HK$4.2B
FY23 HK$4.7B
FY24 HK$5.4B
FY25 HK$5.7B
Net income +30.4%/yr
FY21 HK$294M
FY22 HK$465M
FY23 HK$671M
FY24 HK$839M
FY25 HK$852M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +9.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +4.9 pp

of which total revenue +4.9 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp

EBIT margin +4.2 pp
Tax rate +0.3 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Prada S.p.A · Fair Value
HK$64.07 +54%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Prada S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1913

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Luxury Goods · 136 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 62 · Above median
Fair Value upside +52% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 19% · Above median
Return on assets 8% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 23% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.4% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.28× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Luxury Goods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.71× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.20× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 12.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 8.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG 2.14× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 16
FUTURE 17 · sector 38
PAST 76 · sector 40
HEALTH 86 · sector 99
DIVIDEND 8 · sector 39

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Luxury Goods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

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Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group 1929 HK$12.31 HK$11.51 -6%
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Frequently asked questions

Is Prada S.p.A (1913) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$64.07 versus a price of HK$41.66, about +54% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1913?
Our model-based fair value for Prada S.p.A is HK$64.07 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$41.66.
What is the quality score of 1913?
Prada S.p.A has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Prada S.p.A (1913)?
Prada S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$5.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1913?
The net profit margin of Prada S.p.A is about 14.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 14.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Prada S.p.A pay a dividend?
Prada S.p.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.42% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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