China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (1880) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$99.9B (≈ $12.7B)

What is China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited really worth?

CT China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited 1880 · HK

PriceHK$50.00

Fair ValueHK$44.47

Upside−11.1%

Quality68/100

A solid business, but trading 12% above our fair value of HK$44.47.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.4 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 7.4% net margin

!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)

!Narrow moat 44/100

!Weak on valuation: 19 out of 100

!Weak on future: 5 out of 100

!Weak on past: 25 out of 100

For context

·1.40% dividend yield

Evidence: High Range HK$33.35 – HK$55.59

Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 15 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 21, 2026, revised from HK$44.35 to HK$44.47 (+0.3%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −3.5% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Price vs Fair Value (4 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.

How to read this chart

48‑month range HK$38.16 – HK$256.73 · fair‑value band HK$33.35 – HK$55.59 · the HK$50.00 price screens above the HK$44.47 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (1880) currently trades at HK$50.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$44.47, implying the stock looks roughly 12.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$46.01 per share, and 3 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$50.00 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$13.33, and 21 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited generated revenue of HK$53.9B at a net margin of 7.4%. Revenue grew 1.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$29.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$33.35 (bear case) to HK$55.59 (bull case); at HK$50.00, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −11%, 1880 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.0766 per share, which is 0.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

FCF DCF best evidence HK$37.43 HK$46.25 HK$62.60 82

Growth DCF HK$38.48 HK$47.04 HK$61.69 80

Owner Earnings HK$29.96 HK$35.86 HK$46.77 78

All 24 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF best evidence HK$37.43 HK$46.25 HK$62.60 82

Owner Earnings HK$29.96 HK$35.86 HK$46.77 78

5Y Revenue Exit HK$35.90 HK$45.48 HK$59.41 74

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$37.77 HK$48.72 HK$63.23 76

5Y P/E Exit HK$38.65 HK$50.25 HK$64.12 72

10Y Revenue Exit HK$35.75 HK$42.95 HK$50.67 68

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$37.46 HK$44.95 HK$52.91 70

10Y P/E Exit HK$38.00 HK$45.90 HK$53.43 65

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$11.79 HK$14.41 HK$16.21 67

EPV HK$31.92 HK$34.75 HK$37.22 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$12.17 HK$13.33 HK$15.08 69

DDM Multi-Stage HK$12.17 HK$15.28 HK$19.62 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$28.60 HK$38.13 HK$47.67 63

P/S Multiple HK$22.10 HK$29.47 HK$36.83 58

P/B Multiple HK$22.10 HK$29.47 HK$36.83 55

EV/EBIT HK$49.56 HK$61.10 HK$72.64 66

EV/EBITDA HK$41.86 HK$50.84 HK$59.81 67

EV/Revenue HK$36.75 HK$46.09 HK$55.44 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$13.41 HK$17.96 HK$26.81 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$38.48 HK$47.04 HK$61.69 80

Rev-Margin DCF HK$35.90 HK$46.01 HK$58.41 74

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$21.63 HK$22.69 HK$23.67 76

ROIC Compounder HK$31.92 HK$35.48 HK$39.24 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$20.16 HK$28.80 HK$37.44 67

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (HK$46.01) versus Dividend Discount (HK$13.33). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (82).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 21.6 as of Jul 2, 2026

P/S ratio 1.44 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$0.8132 price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.6

Dividend yield 1.4% payout 86.1%

Net margin 6.7% FY2025

Return on equity 6.3% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 12.6% avg 5y

Operating margin 15.9% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$53.9B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) +1.0% 3y avg −0.5%

EPS growth (YoY) +21.2%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow HK$4.8B FY2025

Net cash HK$29.5B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 68/100

Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28

Profitability 40

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 44

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 61

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 99

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 92

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 63

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 17

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 8

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 75

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Full company description

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited engages in duty-free tourism retail business in China. The company engages in the wholesale and retail of duty-free commodities, such as tobacco, alcohol, cosmetics, watches and jewelry, apparel and bags, and electronic products, as well as food. It is also involved in the investment and development of commercial complexes for duty-free businesses. The company was formerly known as China International Travel Service Corporation Limited and changed its name to China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited in June 2020. The company was founded in 2008 and is based in Beijing, China. China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited operates as a subsidiary of China Tourism Group Co., Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited reported revenue of 53.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 67.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound −5.6%/yr. Reported net income was 3.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding −21.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100

Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$53.7B

Latest YoY

−4.9%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

−0.5%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+0.4%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (6Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+1.7%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

−9.8% (−11.2 + 1.4)

Revenue −5.6%/yr

FY21 67.7B CNY

FY22 54.4B CNY

FY23 67.5B CNY

FY24 56.5B CNY

FY25 53.7B CNY

Net income −21.9%/yr

FY21 9.7B CNY

FY22 5.0B CNY

FY23 6.7B CNY

FY24 4.3B CNY

FY25 3.6B CNY

1880 screens 12% overvalued. Compare with Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc →

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China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited · Fair Value
HK$44.47 −12%Fair Value
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<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1880" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">HK$44.47</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−12%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1880

Peer Group

Specialty Retail · 219 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 68 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside −11% · Below median

Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Below median

Return on assets 4% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 7% · Top 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 16% · Top 25%

Revenue growth 1% · Below median

Dividend yield (TTM) 1.4% · Below median

Debt / equity 0.05× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 21.6× · Pricier than median

P/B 1.80× · Pricier than median

P/S (TTM) 1.86× · Pricier than 75% of peers

P/FCF 2.7× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 12.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers

PEG 0.78× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE19 · sector 30

FUTURE5 · sector 25

PAST25 · sector 27

HEALTH97 · sector 96

DIVIDEND28 · sector 56

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (1880) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$44.47 versus a price of HK$50.00, about −11% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of 1880?

Our model-based fair value for China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited is HK$44.47 (as of Aug 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$50.00.

What is the quality score of 1880?

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the revenue of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (1880)?

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$53.9B (latest available figure, as of Aug 21, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 1880?

The net profit margin of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited is about 7.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited pay a dividend?

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.40% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 21, 2026).

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