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Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd (1818) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$61.6B (≈ $7.9B) · ISIN CNE1000004R6

What is Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd really worth?

ZM Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd 1818 · HK
PriceHK$22.12
Fair ValueHK$18.79
Upside−15.1%
Quality63/100

A solid business, but trading 18% above our fair value of HK$18.79.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +18.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 21.3% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (10/15)
✓Wide moat 72/100

Risks

!Weak on valuation: 13 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 10 out of 100

For context

·0.52% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range HK$12.19 – HK$31.83

Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 16 days ago

Share price −2.8% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$12.19 to HK$31.83). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$40.55 HK$5.15 Fair Value HK$18.79 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$5.15 – HK$40.55 · fair‑value band HK$12.19 – HK$31.83 · the HK$22.12 price screens above the HK$18.79 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd (1818) currently trades at HK$22.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$18.79, implying the stock looks roughly 17.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$24.74 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$22.12 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$3.94, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$19.5B at a net margin of 21.3%. Revenue grew 46.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.2%. Net debt stands at HK$21.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$12.19 (bear case) to HK$31.83 (bull case); at HK$22.12, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −15%, 1818 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.6735 per share, which is 3.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$12.46 HK$26.24 HK$54.51 75
EPV HK$12.99 HK$15.60 HK$17.88 74
Growth DCF HK$12.14 HK$24.97 HK$47.88 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$12.46 HK$26.24 HK$54.51 75
Owner Earnings HK$10.07 HK$22.41 HK$45.46 71
5Y Revenue Exit HK$6.58 HK$13.03 HK$21.83 70
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$14.92 HK$31.15 HK$52.41 72
5Y P/E Exit HK$12.43 HK$25.74 HK$41.64 68
10Y Revenue Exit HK$8.13 HK$15.15 HK$26.15 64
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$14.02 HK$28.83 HK$53.10 65
10Y P/E Exit HK$12.34 HK$24.74 HK$43.61 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$8.53 HK$46.87 HK$65.03 63
Lynch FV HK$13.05 HK$18.64 HK$24.23 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$13.05 HK$18.64 HK$24.23 57
EPV HK$12.99 HK$15.60 HK$17.88 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$2.25 HK$4.67 HK$7.42 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$2.25 HK$3.94 HK$4.91 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$15.99 HK$21.32 HK$26.65 63
P/S Multiple HK$7.05 HK$9.40 HK$11.75 58
P/B Multiple HK$15.15 HK$20.20 HK$25.25 55
EV/EBIT HK$18.71 HK$25.83 HK$32.95 66
EV/EBITDA HK$17.14 HK$23.73 HK$30.33 67
EV/Revenue HK$3.92 HK$6.74 HK$9.56 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$3.37 HK$4.51 HK$6.73 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$12.14 HK$24.97 HK$47.88 74
Rev-Margin DCF HK$6.58 HK$12.92 HK$21.58 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$8.31 HK$11.24 HK$46.13 64
ROIC Compounder HK$15.59 HK$22.94 HK$33.03 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$17.14 HK$24.48 HK$31.83 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$24.74) versus Dividend Discount (HK$3.94). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 15.7 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 3.14 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$1.11 price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.7
Dividend yield 0.5% payout 10.3%
Net margin 20.0% FY2025
Return on equity 18.2% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0% avg 5y
Operating margin 37.2% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$19.5B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +46.7% 3y avg +31.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +88.2%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$3.1B FY2025
Net debt HK$21.9B FY2025 · ≈ 7.0 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33

Profitability 48
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 92
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 70
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 49
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 54
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 39
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 27
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 47
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Zhaojin Mining Industry Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in exploration, mining, processing, smelting, and sale of gold and other metallic products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates in three segments: Gold Operations, Copper Operations, and Others.

Full company description

Zhaojin Mining Industry Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in exploration, mining, processing, smelting, and sale of gold and other metallic products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates in three segments: Gold Operations, Copper Operations, and Others. The company offers Au9999 and Au 9995 gold bullions under the Zhaojin brand name. It also engages in copper mining and smelting; processing of sulphur ore; engineering design and development; land exploration; and material trading activities. In addition, the company provides technical advisory, financial, and catering services. Zhaojin Mining Industry Company Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Zhaoyuan, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$18.1B in FY2025 versus HK$6.9B in FY2021, a compound +27.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$3.6B in FY2025, compounding +221.8%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Growth Quality 80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$18.1B
Latest YoY
+56.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+31.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (22Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+19.1%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+48.2% (47.7 + 0.5)
Revenue +27.4%/yr
FY21 HK$6.9B
FY22 HK$7.9B
FY23 HK$8.4B
FY24 HK$11.6B
FY25 HK$18.1B
Net income +221.8%/yr
FY21 HK$33.7M
FY22 HK$402M
FY23 HK$686M
FY24 HK$1.5B
FY25 HK$3.6B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +18.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +7.0 %

of which total revenue +8.6 % · buybacks/dilution −1.4 %

EBIT margin +3.6 %
Tax rate +2.4 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +4.1 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

1818 screens 18% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1818

Peer Group

Gold · 245 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −15% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 18% · Above median
Return on assets 6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 21% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 37% · Above median
Revenue growth 47% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.5% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.52× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 15.7× · Pricier than median
P/B 3.17× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 3.16× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 2.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 8.9× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.68× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE13 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 100
PAST73 · sector 2
HEALTH74 · sector 98
DIVIDEND10 · sector 20

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Newmont Corporation NEMCL $128.00 $112.82 −12%
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥32.21 ¥39.42 +22%
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM C$268.76 C$213.40 −21%
Barrick Mining Corporation B $41.23 $50.66 +23%
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV $271.31 $96.63 −64%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM C$201.40 C$56.05 −72%
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $97.92 $88.63 −9%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $32.51 $34.62 +6%
Royal Gold, Inc RGLD $262.85 $93.56 −64%
Northern Star Resources Limited NST A$23.19 A$15.98 −31%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd (1818) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$18.79 versus a price of HK$22.12, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1818?
Our model-based fair value for Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd is HK$18.79 (as of Aug 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$22.12.
What is the quality score of 1818?
Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd (1818)?
Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$19.5B (latest available figure, as of Aug 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1818?
The net profit margin of Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd is about 21.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 21.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.52% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 19, 2026).
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