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Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd (0780) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$28.2B (≈ $3.6B) · ISIN KYG8918W1069

What is Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd really worth?

TE Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd 0780 · HK
PriceHK$11.71
Fair ValueHK$25.82
Upside+120.5%
Quality63/100

A solid business, trading 55% below our fair value of HK$25.82.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +26.7 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 12.4% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (13/15)

Risks

!Moderate moat 54/100

For context

·1.92% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range HK$19.36 – HK$32.27

Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 14 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 22, 2026, revised from HK$25.77 to HK$25.82 (+0.2%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −17.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$19.36). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$24.83 HK$8.96 Fair Value HK$25.82 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$8.96 – HK$24.83 · fair‑value band HK$19.36 – HK$32.27 · the HK$11.71 price screens below the HK$25.82 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd (0780) currently trades at HK$11.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$25.82, implying the stock looks roughly 54.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$44.75 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$11.71 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$2.59, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$20.0B at a net margin of 12.4%. Revenue grew 14.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$1.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$19.36 (bear case) to HK$32.27 (bull case); at HK$11.71, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at 121%, 0780 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.9010 per share, which is 3.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$29.39 HK$44.75 HK$93.67 76
Growth DCF HK$27.79 HK$49.46 HK$93.27 75
EPV HK$12.82 HK$14.52 HK$16.01 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$29.39 HK$44.75 HK$93.67 76
Owner Earnings HK$23.31 HK$49.73 HK$105.20 71
5Y Revenue Exit HK$15.53 HK$22.56 HK$37.08 71
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$22.74 HK$37.14 HK$65.34 73
5Y P/E Exit HK$22.48 HK$44.88 HK$75.03 68
10Y Revenue Exit HK$19.47 HK$34.01 HK$41.50 67
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$25.04 HK$49.54 HK$91.27 65
10Y P/E Exit HK$24.85 HK$48.98 HK$87.79 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$6.85 HK$47.77 HK$67.03 63
Lynch FV HK$20.37 HK$29.10 HK$37.83 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$20.37 HK$29.10 HK$37.83 57
EPV HK$12.82 HK$14.52 HK$16.01 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$1.48 HK$3.07 HK$4.88 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.48 HK$2.59 HK$3.23 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$16.62 HK$22.16 HK$27.70 63
P/S Multiple HK$7.41 HK$9.89 HK$12.36 58
P/B Multiple HK$12.84 HK$17.12 HK$21.40 55
EV/EBIT HK$20.59 HK$26.59 HK$32.59 66
EV/EBITDA HK$19.56 HK$25.22 HK$30.87 67
EV/Revenue HK$9.52 HK$12.49 HK$15.45 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$4.79 HK$6.42 HK$9.58 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$27.79 HK$49.46 HK$93.27 75
Rev-Margin DCF HK$16.08 HK$25.48 HK$43.97 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$8.52 HK$9.59 HK$17.92 73
ROIC Compounder HK$15.97 HK$21.79 HK$26.29 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$25.68 HK$36.68 HK$47.69 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$44.75) versus Dividend Discount (HK$2.59). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 10.2 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 1.25 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$1.56 price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.2
Dividend yield 1.9% payout 14.5%
Net margin 12.2% FY2025
Return on equity 11.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8% avg 5y
Operating margin 19.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$20.0B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +14.4% 3y avg +43.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +13.8%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$3.7B FY2025
Net cash HK$1.5B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27

Profitability 46
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 62
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 83
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 74
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 46
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 76
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 11
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 63
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides travel related services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Core Online Travel Agency (Core OTA) and Tourism segments.

Full company description

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides travel related services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Core Online Travel Agency (Core OTA) and Tourism segments. The company offers accommodation reservation services, transportation ticketing services, online advertising services, and hotel management services. It also provides tourism related services comprising offline travel agency related services and operations of tourist and scenic spot areas, as well as platform services for hotel businesses. In addition, the company offers tourist attraction tickets; and various ancillary value-added travel products and services. It offers its services through its online platforms, mobile apps, and websites. The company was formerly known as Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Limited and changed its name to Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited in November 2021. Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Suzhou, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 19.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 7.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound +26.7%/yr. Reported net income was 2.4B CNY in FY2025, compounding +34.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$19.4B
Latest YoY
+11.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+43.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+26.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (10Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+34.2%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+27.7% (25.8 + 1.9)
Revenue +26.7%/yr
FY21 7.5B CNY
FY22 6.6B CNY
FY23 11.9B CNY
FY24 17.3B CNY
FY25 19.4B CNY
Net income +34.6%/yr
FY21 723M CNY
FY22 −146M CNY
FY23 1.6B CNY
FY24 2.0B CNY
FY25 2.4B CNY

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HK$25.82 +55%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0780

Peer Group

Travel Services · 90 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +121% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 20% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 14% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.9% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.04× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.25× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.41× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.7× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.80× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 17
FUTURE72 · sector 25
PAST44 · sector 31
HEALTH98 · sector 97
DIVIDEND38 · sector 39

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Booking Holdings BKNG $202.56 $152.94 −24%
Airbnb, Inc ABNB $184.40 $85.66 −54%
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL $268.74 $215.19 −20%
Viking Holdings VIK $85.03 $43.68 −49%
Carnival Corporation CCL $24.76 $31.36 +27%
Expedia Group EXPE $303.14 $248.63 −18%
Trip.com Group TCOM $45.14 $89.35 +98%
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH $16.14 $20.28 +26%
Global Business Travel Group GBTG $9.44 $5.04 −47%
Travel + Leisure Co TNL $66.40 $26.57 −60%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd (0780) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$25.82 versus a price of HK$11.71, about +121% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0780?
Our model-based fair value for Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd is HK$25.82 (as of Aug 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$11.71.
What is the quality score of 0780?
Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd (0780)?
Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$20.0B (latest available figure, as of Aug 22, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0780?
The net profit margin of Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd is about 12.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 12.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.92% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 22, 2026).
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