Trip.com Group Ltd ADR (TCOM) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $29.2B · ISIN US89677Q1076
What is Trip.com Group Ltd ADR really worth?
Trip.com Group Ltd ADR
TCOM · US
A solid business, trading 54% below our fair value of $89.35.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Share price −11.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($57.81). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The model range is unusually wide ($57.81 to $182.89). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $16.67 – $78.96 · fair‑value band $57.81 – $182.89 · the $41.40 price screens below the $89.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
Analysis
Trip.com Group Ltd ADR (TCOM) currently trades at $41.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $89.35, implying the stock looks roughly 53.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $626.88 per share, and 25 of the 26 models we run sit above the $41.40 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $36.38, and 1 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Trip.com Group Ltd ADR generated revenue of 62.4B CNY at a net margin of 53.4%. Revenue grew 20.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 15.1B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $57.81 (bear case) to $182.89 (bull case); at $41.40, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 116%, TCOM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $4.78 per share, which is 5.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($1,747) versus Dividend Discount ($36.38). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Trip.com Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally.
Full company description
Trip.com Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally. It acts as an agent for hotel-related transactions and selling air tickets, as well as provides train, long-distance bus, and ferry tickets; travel insurance products, such as flight delay, air accident, and baggage loss coverage; and air-ticket delivery, online check-in and seat selection, express security screening, real-time flight status tracker, and airport VIP lounge services. The company also provides travelers bundled packaged-tour products, such as group, semi-group, and customized and packaged tours with various transportation arrangements, including air, cruise, bus, and car rental services. In addition, it offers integrated transportation and accommodation services; ticket, activity, insurance, visa, and tour guide services; and user support, supplier management, and customer relationship management services; and in-destination products and services. Further, the company provides Trip.Biz, a digital first, full-service, corporate travel management business which provides technology-enabled solutions for organizations managing business travel. Additionally, it offers online advertising and financial services, such as marketing planning and travel media services; Omni-Channel Touchpoints for Users; and Open Platform for Ecosystem Partners. It operates under the Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, Travix, Travelfusion, and Skyscanner brand names. The company was formerly known as Ctrip.com International, Ltd. and changed its name to Trip.com Group Limited in October 2019. Trip.com Group Limited was founded in 1999 and is based in Singapore.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Trip.com Group Ltd ADR reported revenue of 60.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 20.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +32.0%/yr. Reported net income was 32.4B CNY in FY2025.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Jin Jiang Hotels and Trip.com Sign Strategic MOU to Deepen ASEAN Engagement
- Trip.com (TCOM): China’s Largest Travel Platform Set for Long Term Gains
- Trip.com (TCOM) Is Considered a Good Investment by Brokers: Is That True?
- Earnings Preview: Trip.com (TCOM) Q2 Earnings Expected to Decline
Peer Group
Travel Services · 90 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $202.56 | $152.94 | −24% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $184.40 | $85.66 | −54% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $268.74 | $215.19 | −20% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $85.03 | $43.68 | −49% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $24.76 | $31.36 | +27% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $303.14 | $248.63 | −18% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $16.14 | $20.28 | +26% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.44 | $5.04 | −47% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $66.40 | $26.57 | −60% |
| MakeMyTrip Limited MMYT | $60.31 | $19.30 | −68% |
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