Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$494B (≈ $63.0B) · ISIN HK0388045442
What is Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd really worth?
A solid business, but trading 124% above our fair value of HK$182.59.
Strengths
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −1.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$321.62). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$136.94 to HK$321.62) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$188.40 – HK$471.06 · fair‑value band HK$136.94 – HK$321.62 · the HK$408.80 price screens above the HK$182.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388) currently trades at HK$408.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$182.59, implying the stock looks roughly 123.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$563.23 per share, and 5 of the 12 models we run sit above the HK$408.80 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$30.82, and 7 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd generated revenue of HK$30.2B at a net margin of 62.6%. Revenue grew 19.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 35.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$181B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$136.94 (bear case) to HK$321.62 (bull case); at HK$408.80, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −56% fair-value upside, at −55%, 0388 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$10.12 per share, which is 5.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (HK$563.23) versus Asset-Based (HK$30.82). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 75 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates stock and futures exchanges, and related clearing houses in Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, and Mainland China. It operates through Cash, Equity and Financial Derivatives, Commodities, and Data and Connectivity segments.
Full company description
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates stock and futures exchanges, and related clearing houses in Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, and Mainland China. It operates through Cash, Equity and Financial Derivatives, Commodities, and Data and Connectivity segments. The Cash segment covers various equity products traded on the cash market platforms of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited, as well as through the Shanghai-Hong Kong and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong stock connects; clearing, settlement and custodian, listing, depository, and nominee services; and other related activities. Its Equity and Financial Derivatives segment provides and maintains trading and clearing platforms for a range of equity and financial derivative products, such as stock and equity index futures and options, derivative warrants, callable bull/bear contracts and warrants, and over the counter derivatives contracts. The Commodities segment operates an exchange for the trading of base and ferrous metals futures and options contracts in the United Kingdom; and operates Qianhai Mercantile Exchange Co., Ltd., a commodity trading platform in Mainland China. This segment also covers commodities contracts traded on Futures Exchange. Its Data and Connectivity segment offers various services that provides access to the platform and infrastructure, as well as services of BayConnect Technology Company Limited; network, terminal user, data line and software sublicense, and hosting services; and sells market data relating to the Hong Kong cash and derivatives markets. The company serves issuers and investors. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Central, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd reported revenue of HK$29.2B in FY2025 versus HK$19.5B in FY2021, a compound +10.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$17.8B in FY2025, compounding +9.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.7 % · buybacks/dilution −0.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
0388 screens 124% overvalued. Compare with S&P Global Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd (HKXCF) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue ...
- Hong Kong Exchange Posts Record Earnings on IPO, Trading Boom
- Exclusive: Axiom CEO on Hong Kong IPO plans, path to public markets
Peer Group
Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 53 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Financial Data & Stock Exchanges stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Inc SPGI | $435.39 | $196.36 | −55% |
| CME Group CME | $285.80 | $145.51 | −49% |
| Moody's Corporation MCO | $514.95 | $192.63 | −63% |
| Intercontinental Exchange, Inc ICE | $162.33 | $75.95 | −53% |
| Deutsche Börse AG DB1 | €291.20 | €142.42 | −51% |
| Nasdaq, Inc NDAQ | $99.35 | $41.12 | −59% |
| MSCI Inc MSCI | $570.76 | $214.91 | −62% |
| Coinbase Global, Inc COIN | $190.72 | $73.66 | −61% |
| Cboe Global Markets, Inc CBOE | $310.45 | $136.64 | −56% |
| Hithink RoyalFlush Information Network Co 300033 | ¥231.91 | ¥55.36 | −76% |
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