CME Group Inc (CME) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $88.5B · ISIN US12572Q1058
What is CME Group Inc really worth?
CME Group Inc
CME · US
A solid business, but trading 94% above our fair value of $145.51.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +7.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($201.46). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($109.14 to $201.46) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $142.59 – $317.19 · fair‑value band $109.14 – $201.46 · the $282.05 price screens above the $145.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
CME Group Inc (CME) currently trades at $282.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $145.51, implying the stock looks roughly 93.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $184.75 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $282.05 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $53.27, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, CME Group Inc generated revenue of $6.7B at a net margin of 63.3%. Revenue grew 14.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $666M. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $109.14 (bear case) to $201.46 (bull case); at $282.05, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −56% fair-value upside, at −48%, CME screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $4.54 per share, which is 3.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($184.75) versus Asset-Based ($53.27). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, and foreign exchange; and agricultural, energy, and metals commodities, as well as fixed income and foreign currency trading services.
Full company description
CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, and foreign exchange; and agricultural, energy, and metals commodities, as well as fixed income and foreign currency trading services. The company provides clearing house services, including clearing, settling, and guaranteeing futures and options contracts, and cleared swaps products traded through its exchanges. In addition, the company offers a range of market data services, including real-time and historical data services. It serves professional traders, financial institutions, institutional and individual investors, corporations, manufacturers, producers, governments, and central banks. The company was formerly known as Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. and changed its name to CME Group Inc. in July 2007. The company was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CME Group Inc reported revenue of $6.5B in FY2025 versus $4.7B in FY2021, a compound +8.6%/yr. Reported net income was $4.0B in FY2025, compounding +11.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.9 % · buybacks/dilution −0.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CME screens 94% overvalued. Compare with S&P Global Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Analyzing CME Group’s (CME) Stock Performance Amidst Market Volatility
- TradeStation Expands Futures Offering with CME Group Single Stock Futures
- CME Group to Launch E-mini Equity Factor Futures on September 21
Peer Group
Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 53 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Financial Data & Stock Exchanges stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Inc SPGI | $435.39 | $196.36 | −55% |
| Moody's Corporation MCO | $514.95 | $192.63 | −63% |
| Intercontinental Exchange, Inc ICE | $162.33 | $75.95 | −53% |
| Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited 80388 | HK$360.20 | HK$280.07 | −22% |
| Deutsche Börse AG DB1 | €291.20 | €142.42 | −51% |
| Nasdaq, Inc NDAQ | $99.35 | $41.12 | −59% |
| MSCI Inc MSCI | $570.76 | $214.91 | −62% |
| Coinbase Global, Inc COIN | $190.72 | $73.66 | −61% |
| Cboe Global Markets, Inc CBOE | $310.45 | $136.64 | −56% |
| Hithink RoyalFlush Information Network Co 300033 | ¥231.91 | ¥55.36 | −76% |
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