Moodys Corporation (MCO) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $86.4B · ISIN US6153691059
What is Moodys Corporation really worth?
Moodys Corporation
MCO · US
A strong business, but trading 162% above our fair value of $192.63.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price +4.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($283.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($124.65 to $283.40) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $227.83 – $537.16 · fair‑value band $124.65 – $283.40 · the $504.30 price screens above the $192.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
Moodys Corporation (MCO) currently trades at $504.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $192.63, implying the stock looks roughly 161.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $247.37 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $504.30 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $32.49, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Moodys Corporation generated revenue of $7.9B at a net margin of 31.7%. Revenue grew 8.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 71.4%. Net debt stands at $5.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $124.65 (bear case) to $283.40 (bull case); at $504.30, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −55% fair-value upside, at −62%, MCO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $6.81 per share, which is 3.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($247.37) versus Asset-Based ($15.55). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Moody's Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated risk assessment firm in the United States, the rest of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Moody's Analytics (MA) and Moody's Investors Services (MIS).
Full company description
Moody's Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated risk assessment firm in the United States, the rest of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Moody's Analytics (MA) and Moody's Investors Services (MIS). The MA segment develops a range of products and services that support the risk management activities of institutional participants in financial markets. This segment also offers credit research, credit models and analytics, economics data and models, and structured finance solutions; data sets on companies and securities; and cloud-based SaaS subscription-based solutions supporting banking, insurance, and know-your-customer workflows. Its MIS segment publishes credit ratings and provides assessment services on various debt obligations, programs and facilities, and entities that issue such obligations, such as various corporate, financial institution, and governmental obligations, as well as structured finance securities. It also provides ratings, investment research, compliance and third-party risk, supplier risk, trade credit, business intelligence sales and marketing, financial and regulatory reporting, balance sheet management, capital management, credit portfolio management, and model risk and governance solutions; Maxsight, a unified risk platform; lending suite, origination, and monitoring solutions; and property, casualty, and sustainable insurance underwriting solutions. The company serves the financial, banking, insurance, corporation, public, and asset management sectors. The company was formerly known as Dun and Bradstreet Company and changed its name to Moody's Corporation in September 2000. Moody's Corporation was founded in 1900 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Moodys Corporation reported revenue of $7.7B in FY2025 versus $6.2B in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was $2.5B in FY2025, compounding +2.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.9 % · buybacks/dilution +1.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MCO screens 162% overvalued. Compare with S&P Global Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- VIRT vs. MCO: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?
- Is Moody's (MCO) Getting Too Expensive For Its Earnings?
- Moody’s (MCO) Is Up 5.6% After Embedding Credit Intelligence Into Google’s Gemini Enterprise Platform
- Moody's (MCO) Joins Google Gemini, Is The Stock Getting Too Pricey?
Peer Group
Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 53 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Financial Data & Stock Exchanges stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Inc SPGI | $435.39 | $196.36 | −55% |
| CME Group CME | $285.80 | $145.51 | −49% |
| Intercontinental Exchange, Inc ICE | $162.33 | $75.95 | −53% |
| Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited 80388 | HK$360.20 | HK$280.07 | −22% |
| Deutsche Börse AG DB1 | €291.20 | €142.42 | −51% |
| Nasdaq, Inc NDAQ | $99.35 | $41.12 | −59% |
| MSCI Inc MSCI | $570.76 | $214.91 | −62% |
| Coinbase Global, Inc COIN | $190.72 | $73.66 | −61% |
| Cboe Global Markets, Inc CBOE | $310.45 | $136.64 | −56% |
| Hithink RoyalFlush Information Network Co 300033 | ¥231.91 | ¥55.36 | −76% |
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