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China Merchants Port Holdings Co Ltd (0144) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$51.8B (≈ $6.6B) · ISIN HK0144000764

What is China Merchants Port Holdings Co Ltd really worth?

CM China Merchants Port Holdings Co Ltd 0144 · HK
PriceHK$16.40
Fair ValueHK$21.47
Upside+30.9%
Quality63/100

A solid business, trading 24% below our fair value of HK$21.47.

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Strengths

✓Highly profitable · 48.7% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (10/15)
✓Wide moat 66/100

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +8.3 %/yr)
!Weak on past: 25 out of 100

For context

·4.51% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range HK$16.98 – HK$22.23

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price +8.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$16.98). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$16.93 HK$7.04 Fair Value HK$21.47 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$7.04 – HK$16.93 · fair‑value band HK$16.98 – HK$22.23 · the HK$16.40 price screens below the HK$21.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

China Merchants Port Holdings Co Ltd (0144) currently trades at HK$16.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$21.47, implying the stock looks roughly 23.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$29.48 per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$16.40 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$9.17, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, China Merchants Port Holdings Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$13.4B at a net margin of 48.7%. Revenue grew 14.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.2%. Net debt stands at HK$24.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$16.98 (bear case) to HK$22.23 (bull case); at HK$16.40, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at 31%, 0144 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.0751 per share, which is 0.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence HK$23.85 HK$39.05 HK$63.21 79
Growth DCF HK$24.09 HK$39.04 HK$62.73 77
Residual Income HK$20.80 HK$21.53 HK$21.79 76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence HK$23.85 HK$39.05 HK$63.21 79
Owner Earnings HK$21.93 HK$35.93 HK$58.17 75
5Y Revenue Exit HK$10.45 HK$13.95 HK$18.06 74
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$17.90 HK$28.32 HK$40.54 75
5Y P/E Exit HK$22.39 HK$36.96 HK$52.61 70
10Y Revenue Exit HK$14.85 HK$19.35 HK$24.89 68
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$19.79 HK$29.48 HK$42.54 68
10Y P/E Exit HK$22.68 HK$35.58 HK$52.01 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$10.54 HK$37.63 HK$50.69 64
Lynch FV HK$8.86 HK$12.66 HK$16.46 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$8.86 HK$12.66 HK$16.46 57
EPV HK$7.81 HK$9.17 HK$10.35 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$8.13 HK$16.91 HK$26.83 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$8.13 HK$14.26 HK$17.75 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$24.40 HK$32.54 HK$40.67 63
P/S Multiple HK$4.77 HK$6.36 HK$7.95 58
P/B Multiple HK$19.75 HK$26.34 HK$32.92 55
EV/EBIT HK$14.78 HK$19.81 HK$24.84 66
EV/EBITDA HK$16.53 HK$22.15 HK$27.77 67
EV/Revenue HK$3.69 HK$5.41 HK$7.13 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$13.15 HK$17.62 HK$26.30 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$24.09 HK$39.04 HK$62.73 77
Rev-Margin DCF HK$10.13 HK$13.38 HK$17.06 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$20.80 HK$21.53 HK$21.79 76
ROIC Compounder HK$7.81 HK$9.17 HK$10.35 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$16.98 HK$24.25 HK$31.53 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$29.48) versus Economic Profit (HK$9.17). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 8.0 as of Jul 1, 2026
P/S ratio 3.90 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.8500 price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.0
Dividend yield 4.5% payout 86.9%
Net margin 48.7% FY2025
Return on equity 6.2% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3% avg 5y
Operating margin 37.0% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$13.4B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +14.1% 3y avg +2.1%
EPS growth (YoY) −17.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$8.6B FY2025
Net debt HK$24.5B FY2025 · ≈ 2.9 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 89
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 45
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 83
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 82
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 64
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 67
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in ports operation, bonded logistics operation, and property investment in the Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through Ports Operation, Bonded Logistics Operation, and Other Operations segments.

Full company description

China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in ports operation, bonded logistics operation, and property investment in the Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through Ports Operation, Bonded Logistics Operation, and Other Operations segments. It engages in the container, and bulk and general cargo terminal operation; logistic park operation, ports transportation, and airport cargo handling; and property development and investment, as well as logistics operation activities. The company also provides container related logistics services; financial services; port development, management, and operation services; trading, terminal operation, and repair and maintenance services. In addition, it offers handling and stevedoring container services; loads and unloads goods; operates berths and tugboats; services on ports construction; and holds various pieces of land. The company was formerly known as China Merchants Holdings (International) Company Limited and changed its name to China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited in June 2016. China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Merchants Port Holdings Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$13.4B in FY2025 versus HK$11.9B in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$6.5B in FY2025, compounding −6.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$13.4B
Latest YoY
+12.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−2.8% (−7.3 + 4.5)
Revenue +3.0%/yr
FY21 HK$11.9B
FY22 HK$12.5B
FY23 HK$11.5B
FY24 HK$11.8B
FY25 HK$13.4B
Net income −6.1%/yr
FY21 HK$8.4B
FY22 HK$8.0B
FY23 HK$6.4B
FY24 HK$8.0B
FY25 HK$6.5B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +0.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +1.0 %

of which total revenue +4.6 % · buybacks/dilution −3.5 %

EBIT margin +0.5 %
Tax rate −0.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Merchants Port Holdings Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0144

Peer Group

Marine Shipping · 233 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +31% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 49% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 37% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 14% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.5% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.12× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.47× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 3.88× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 7.7× · Pricier than median
PEG 4.68× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE75 · sector 29
FUTURE71 · sector 24
PAST25 · sector 27
HEALTH94 · sector 89
DIVIDEND90 · sector 53

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited ADANIPORTS ₹1,714 ₹1,041 −39%
A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S MAERSKA kr 20,820 kr 20,145 −3%
532921 532921 ₹1,697 ₹1,305 −23%
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 601919 ¥16.06 ¥49.90 +211%
Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, HLAG €132.80 €88.00 −34%
Shanghai International Port (Group) Co 600018 ¥5.17 ¥6.15 +19%
HMM Co 011200 21,450 KRW 33,795 KRW +58%
Orient Overseas (International) Limited 0316 HK$166.90 HK$237.61 +42%
Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company 601018 ¥3.39 ¥5.58 +65%
Qingdao Port International Co 601298 ¥8.69 ¥15.97 +84%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Merchants Port Holdings Co Ltd (0144) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$21.47 versus a price of HK$16.40, about +31% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0144?
Our model-based fair value for China Merchants Port Holdings Co Ltd is HK$21.47 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$16.40.
What is the quality score of 0144?
China Merchants Port Holdings Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Merchants Port Holdings Co Ltd (0144)?
China Merchants Port Holdings Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$13.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0144?
The net profit margin of China Merchants Port Holdings Co Ltd is about 48.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 48.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China Merchants Port Holdings Co Ltd pay a dividend?
China Merchants Port Holdings Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.51% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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