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China Merchants Port Holdings (0144) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$51.8B

CM China Merchants Port Holdings 0144 · HK
PriceHK$14.90
Fair ValueHK$21.47
Upside+44.1%
Quality63/100
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Healthy Growth
Highly profitable · 48.7% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
5.81% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (10/15)
Wide moat 66/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$16.98 – HK$22.23 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated today

Share price +10.7% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 44% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$16.98). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$16.93 HK$7.04 Fair Value HK$21.47 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$7.04 – HK$16.93 · fair‑value band HK$16.98 – HK$22.23 · the HK$14.90 price screens below the HK$21.47 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

China Merchants Port Holdings (0144) currently trades at HK$14.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$21.47, implying the stock looks roughly 44.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, China Merchants Port Holdings generated revenue of HK$13.4B at a net margin of 48.7%. Revenue grew 14.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.2%. Net debt stands at HK$24.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$16.98 (bear case) to HK$22.23 (bull case); at HK$14.90, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at 44%, 0144 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$24.09 HK$39.04 HK$62.73 80
Residual Income HK$20.80 HK$21.53 HK$21.79 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$10.13 HK$13.38 HK$17.06 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$23.85 HK$39.05 HK$63.21 38
Owner Earnings HK$21.93 HK$35.93 HK$58.17 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$10.45 HK$13.95 HK$18.06 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$17.90 HK$28.32 HK$40.54 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$22.39 HK$36.96 HK$52.61 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$14.85 HK$19.35 HK$24.89 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$19.79 HK$29.48 HK$42.54 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$22.68 HK$35.58 HK$52.01 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$10.54 HK$37.63 HK$50.69 54
Lynch FV HK$8.86 HK$12.66 HK$16.46 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$8.86 HK$12.66 HK$16.46 46
EPV HK$7.81 HK$9.17 HK$10.35 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$8.13 HK$16.91 HK$26.83 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$8.13 HK$14.26 HK$17.75 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$24.40 HK$32.54 HK$40.67 63
P/S Multiple HK$4.77 HK$6.36 HK$7.95 58
P/B Multiple HK$19.75 HK$26.34 HK$32.92 55
EV/EBIT HK$14.78 HK$19.81 HK$24.84 53
EV/EBITDA HK$16.53 HK$22.15 HK$27.77 54
EV/Revenue HK$3.69 HK$5.41 HK$7.13 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$13.15 HK$17.62 HK$26.30 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$24.09 HK$39.04 HK$62.73 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$10.13 HK$13.38 HK$17.06 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$20.80 HK$21.53 HK$21.79 76
ROIC Compounder HK$7.81 HK$9.17 HK$10.35 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$16.98 HK$24.25 HK$31.53 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$29.48) versus Economic Profit (HK$9.17). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$13.4B
Revenue growth (YoY) +14.1%
Net margin 48.7%
Return on equity 6.2%
Free cash flow HK$8.6B FY2025
P/E ratio 8.0 as of Jul 1, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 37.0%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.8500
Dividend yield 5.8%
EPS growth (YoY) -17.1%
Net debt HK$24.5B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 89
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 45
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 83
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 82
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 44
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 67
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in ports operation, bonded logistics operation, and property investment in the Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through Ports Operation, Bonded Logistics Operation, and Other Operations segments.

Full company description

China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in ports operation, bonded logistics operation, and property investment in the Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through Ports Operation, Bonded Logistics Operation, and Other Operations segments. It engages in the container, and bulk and general cargo terminal operation; logistic park operation, ports transportation, and airport cargo handling; and property development and investment, as well as logistics operation activities. The company also provides container related logistics services; financial services; port development, management, and operation services; trading, terminal operation, and repair and maintenance services. In addition, it offers handling and stevedoring container services; loads and unloads goods; operates berths and tugboats; services on ports construction; and holds various pieces of land. The company was formerly known as China Merchants Holdings (International) Company Limited and changed its name to China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited in June 2016. China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Merchants Port Holdings reported revenue of HK$13.4B in FY2025 versus HK$11.9B in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$6.5B in FY2025, compounding −6.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 82/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$13.4B
Latest YoY
+12.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.3%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.5%
Revenue +3.0%/yr
FY21 HK$11.9B
FY22 HK$12.5B
FY23 HK$11.5B
FY24 HK$11.8B
FY25 HK$13.4B
Net income −6.1%/yr
FY21 HK$8.4B
FY22 HK$8.0B
FY23 HK$6.4B
FY24 HK$8.0B
FY25 HK$6.5B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +0.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +1.0 pp

of which total revenue +4.6 pp · buybacks/dilution −3.6 pp

EBIT margin +0.5 pp
Tax rate −0.2 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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China Merchants Port Holdings · Fair Value
HK$21.47 +44%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Merchants Port Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0144

Peer Group

Marine Shipping · 233 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +44% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 49% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 37% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 14% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.8% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.12× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.47× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 3.88× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 7.7× · Pricier than median
PEG 4.68× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 92 · sector 23
FUTURE 71 · sector 18
PAST 25 · sector 26
HEALTH 94 · sector 88
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 45

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

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JSW Infrastructure Limited JSWINFRA ₹346.60 ₹126.31 -64%
Wan Hai Lines Ltd 2615 87.10 TWD 212.79 TWD +144%
PT Transcoal Pacific Tbk, a shipping company, TCPI 3,640 IDR 368.32 IDR -90%
Pan Ocean Co 028670 5,630 KRW 11,840 KRW +110%
Sociedad Matriz SAAM S.A SMSAAM 136.33 CLP 146.31 CLP +7%
PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk ALII 795.00 IDR 350.80 IDR -56%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Merchants Port Holdings (0144) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$21.47 versus a price of HK$14.90, about +44% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0144?
Our model-based fair value for China Merchants Port Holdings is HK$21.47 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$14.90.
What is the quality score of 0144?
China Merchants Port Holdings has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Merchants Port Holdings (0144)?
China Merchants Port Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$13.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0144?
The net profit margin of China Merchants Port Holdings is about 48.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 48.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China Merchants Port Holdings pay a dividend?
China Merchants Port Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.81% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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