Guosen Securities Co (002736) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · CN · Market cap 106B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from ¥17.96 to ¥10.84 (−39.6%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price −3.3% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.81 – ¥14.90 · fair‑value band ¥8.13 – ¥13.55 · the ¥10.00 price screens below the ¥10.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Guosen Securities Co (002736) currently trades at ¥10.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥10.84, implying the stock looks roughly 8.4% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Guosen Securities Co generated revenue of 23.9B CNY at a net margin of 45.5%. Revenue declined 4.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 58.2B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥8.13 (bear case) to ¥13.55 (bull case); at ¥10.00, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at 8%, 002736 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥10.90) versus Asset-Based (¥8.60). Highest evidence: P/B Multiple (55).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. provides financial products and services to individual and institutional clients in China. It operates through Brokerage and Wealth Management; Investment Banking; Investment and Trading; Asset Management; and Other segments.
Full company description
Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. provides financial products and services to individual and institutional clients in China. It operates through Brokerage and Wealth Management; Investment Banking; Investment and Trading; Asset Management; and Other segments. The company offers securities brokerage, futures brokerage, agency sales of financial products, asset custody, investment consulting, margin trading, and other capital intermediary services, as well as stock underwriting and sponsorship, bond underwriting, mergers and acquisitions, and restructuring services. It also engages in the investment and trading of equity, fixed income, alternative investment, derivatives, and other financial products; and development of asset management products, including asset management, private equity fund management, and fund management business. Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. was formerly known as Shenzhen Guotou Securities Co., Ltd. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guosen Securities Co reported revenue of ¥23.7B in FY2025 versus ¥28.0B in FY2021, a compound −4.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥11.1B in FY2025, compounding +2.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.4 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.5 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Financial Conglomerates · 55 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Financial Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Financial Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORIX Corporation IX | $40.58 | $35.47 | -13% |
| Bajaj Finserv Ltd BAJAJFINSV | ₹2,009 | ₹796.96 | -60% |
| China Galaxy Securities Co 601881 | ¥12.36 | ¥11.34 | -8% |
| CNPC Capital Company 000617 | ¥6.96 | ¥6.99 | +0% |
| Aditya Birla Capital Limited ABCAPITAL | ₹410.95 | ₹119.98 | -71% |
| Freedom Holding FRHC | $151.33 | $31.31 | -79% |
| Voya Financial, Inc VOYA | $99.49 | $62.37 | -37% |
| Guangzhou Yuexiu Capital Holdings 000987 | ¥7.72 | ¥5.63 | -27% |
| Bicecorp S.A BICE | 402.36 CLP | 261.70 CLP | -35% |
| First Capital Securities Co 002797 | ¥6.59 | ¥3.26 | -51% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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