Xpeng Inc (XPEV) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $11.9B · ISIN US98422D1054
What is Xpeng Inc really worth?
Xpeng Inc
XPEV · US
A solid business, but trading 19% above our fair value of $9.33.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 27, 2026, revised from $9.27 to $9.33 (+0.6%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −7.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($5.68 to $12.98) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.41 – $55.00 · fair‑value band $5.68 – $12.98 · the $11.14 price screens above the $9.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Xpeng Inc (XPEV) currently trades at $11.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.33, implying the stock looks roughly 19.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 7 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Xpeng Inc generated revenue of $73.9B at a net margin of −3.1%. Revenue declined 17.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −7.6%. Net debt stands at $2.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.68 (bear case) to $12.98 (bull case); at $11.14, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −16%, XPEV screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($180.00) versus Asset-Based ($26.04). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (73).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 12
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
XPeng Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets smart electric vehicles (EVs) in the People's Republic of China.
Full company description
XPeng Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets smart electric vehicles (EVs) in the People's Republic of China. The company offers P7 and P7i, a four-door sports sedan; G9, a smart EV and a mid- to large-sized sport utility vehicle (SUV); G7 for families and individual consumers seeking advanced technology and comfort; G6, a smart EV and a coupe SUV; X9, Smart EV and a large seven-seater multi-purpose vehicle (MPV); MONA M03, an all-electric hatchback coupe; Next P7, an all-new coupe sports sedan; and P7+, smart EV of XPeng series. It also provides XOS Tianji, smart in-car operating system; Powertrain; and SEPA 2.0, a smart electric platform architecture. In addition, the company offers various services, including services embedded in a sales contract, supercharging, maintenance, technical support, technical research and development, and second-hand vehicle sales services; and insurance technology support, and automotive loan referral and auto financing services. XPeng Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Xpeng Inc reported revenue of 74.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 21.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +37.3%/yr. Reported net income was −1.1B CNY in FY2025.
XPEV screens 19% overvalued. Compare with Toyota Motor Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- XPeng delivers 39,107 EVs in August, up 4% Y/Y and 2.8% M/M
- XPENG Announces Vehicle Delivery Results for August 2026
- Top global stories this week: XPENG, Alibaba among notable names
Peer Group
Auto Manufacturers · 115 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota Motor Corporation TM | $191.84 | $247.83 | +29% |
| BYD Company 81211 | HK$76.90 | HK$48.59 | −37% |
| Hyundai Motor Company 005380 | 418,500 KRW | 567,393 KRW | +36% |
| Ferrari N.V RACE | €355.50 | €167.67 | −53% |
| General Motors Company GM | $86.27 | $52.69 | −39% |
| Ford Motor Company F | $13.88 | $11.51 | −17% |
| Mercedes-Benz Group MBG | €46.95 | €106.16 | +126% |
| Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 | €43.91 | €17.34 | −61% |
| Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI | ₹12,694 | ₹8,236 | −35% |
| Volkswagen AG VOW3 | €77.42 | €248.34 | +221% |
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