Warner Music Group (WMG) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $15.1B · ISIN US9345502036
What is Warner Music Group really worth?
Warner Music Group
WMG · US
A solid business, but trading 144% above our fair value of $12.10.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $12.59 to $12.10 (−3.9%) since Jul 13, 2026. Share price +14.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($17.77). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($6.26 to $17.77). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $20.52 – $44.65 · fair‑value band $6.26 – $17.77 · the $29.55 price screens above the $12.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Warner Music Group (WMG) currently trades at $29.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.10, implying the stock looks roughly 144.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $13.02 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $29.55 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $3.61, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Warner Music Group generated revenue of $7.1B at a net margin of 6.3%. Revenue grew 16.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 51.0%. Net debt stands at $4.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.26 (bear case) to $17.77 (bull case); at $29.55, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −59%, WMG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 11 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.0838 per share, which is 0.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($13.02) versus Asset-Based ($0.8400). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Warner Music Group Corp. operates as a music entertainment company in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and internationally. It operates through Recorded Music and Music Publishing segments.
Full company description
Warner Music Group Corp. operates as a music entertainment company in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and internationally. It operates through Recorded Music and Music Publishing segments. The company is involved in the discovery and development of recording artists, as well as related marketing, promotion, distribution, sale, and licensing of music created by recording artists; markets its music catalog through compilations and reissuances of previously released music and video titles, as well as previously unreleased materials. It also owns and acquires rights to approximately two million musical compositions comprising pop hits, American standards, folk songs, and motion picture and theatrical compositions, as well as administers the music and soundtracks of various third-party television and film producers and studios. In addition, the company conducts its operation primarily through a collection of record labels, such as Asylum, Big Beat, Canvasback, East West, Erato, FFRR, Nonesuch, Parlophone, Reprise, Sire, Spinnin' Records, and Warner Classics and Warner Records Nashville. Further, it markets, distributes, and sells music and video products to retailers and wholesale distributors; independent labels to retail and wholesale distributors; and various distribution centers and ventures, as well as retail outlets, online physical retailers, streaming services, and download services. Its catalog includes songwriters and composers; and various genres, including pop, rock, jazz, classical, country, R&B, hip-hop, rap, reggae, Latin, folk, alternative, blues, gospel, and other Christian music. The company was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Warner Music Group reported revenue of $6.7B in FY2025 versus $5.3B in FY2021, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was $365M in FY2025, compounding +4.7%/yr from FY2021.
WMG screens 144% overvalued. Compare with Netflix, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Sony, Warner Music Sue Anthropic Over Copyrighted Songs Used in Claude
- 5 Must-Read Analyst Questions From Warner Music Group’s Q2 Earnings Call
- Warner Music Group (WMG) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
- Warner Music Group Corp (WMG) (Q3 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth and ...
Peer Group
Entertainment · 253 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Entertainment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netflix, Inc NFLX | $81.72 | $49.35 | −40% |
| The Walt Disney Company DIS | $103.50 | $80.62 | −22% |
| Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc WBD | $27.65 | $9.03 | −67% |
| Live Nation Entertainment, Inc LYV | $182.02 | $59.97 | −67% |
| Universal Music Group UMG | €14.73 | €14.78 | +0% |
| TKO Group TKO | $189.42 | $47.75 | −75% |
| Formula One Group FWONK | $102.02 | $35.21 | −65% |
| Fox Corporation FOXA | $68.42 | $206.81 | +202% |
| News Corporation NWS | A$46.55 | A$20.41 | −56% |
| Bolloré SE BOL | €3.85 | €2.11 | −45% |
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