Netflix Inc (NFLX) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $309B · ISIN US64110L1061
What is Netflix Inc really worth?
Netflix Inc
NFLX · US
A strong business, but trading 68% above our fair value of $49.35.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +12.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 87/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The model range is unusually wide ($36.69 to $105.58). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $16.64 – $133.91 · fair‑value band $36.69 – $105.58 · the $82.67 price screens above the $49.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Netflix Inc (NFLX) currently trades at $82.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $49.35, implying the stock looks roughly 67.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 87/100 (high quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $94.26 per share, and 7 of the 24 models we run sit above the $82.67 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $33.18, and 17 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Netflix Inc generated revenue of $46.9B at a net margin of 28.5%. Revenue grew 16.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 48.5%. Net debt stands at $5.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $36.69 (bear case) to $105.58 (bull case); at $82.67, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at −40%, NFLX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.11 per share, which is 4.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($94.26) versus Asset-Based ($4.23). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 82 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Netflix, Inc. provides entertainment services worldwide. The company offers television (TV) series, documentaries, feature films, games, and live programming across various genres and languages.
Full company description
Netflix, Inc. provides entertainment services worldwide. The company offers television (TV) series, documentaries, feature films, games, and live programming across various genres and languages. It also provides members the ability to receive streaming content through a host of internet-connected devices, including TVs, digital video players, TV set-top boxes, and mobile devices. Netflix, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Netflix Inc reported revenue of $45.2B in FY2025 versus $29.7B in FY2021, a compound +11.1%/yr. Reported net income was $11.0B in FY2025, compounding +21.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +21.1 % · buybacks/dilution −0.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
NFLX screens 68% overvalued. Compare with The Walt Disney Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Vodafone debuts UK TV hub bundling Netflix, HBO Max, live channels
- Netflix (NFLX) Rises Higher Than Market: Key Facts
- Where Will Netflix Stock Be in 3 Years?
- Netflix, MercadoLibre, and Tesla Are All Underperforming the S&P 500. Here's the 1 Stock I'd Buy in September.
Peer Group
Entertainment · 253 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Entertainment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Walt Disney Company DIS | $103.50 | $80.62 | −22% |
| Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc WBD | $27.65 | $9.03 | −67% |
| Live Nation Entertainment, Inc LYV | $182.02 | $59.97 | −67% |
| Universal Music Group UMG | €14.73 | €14.78 | +0% |
| TKO Group TKO | $189.42 | $47.75 | −75% |
| Formula One Group FWONK | $102.02 | $35.21 | −65% |
| Fox Corporation FOXA | $68.42 | $206.81 | +202% |
| News Corporation NWS | A$46.55 | A$20.41 | −56% |
| Warner Music Group WMG | $24.79 | $12.10 | −51% |
| Bolloré SE BOL | €3.85 | €2.11 | −45% |
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