TKO Group (TKO) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $35.2B
TKO Group
TKO · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Share price +8.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 80% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($57.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($24.17 to $57.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $43.93 – $223.19 · fair‑value band $24.17 – $57.01 · the $199.68 price screens above the $40.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
TKO Group (TKO) currently trades at $199.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $40.59, implying the stock looks roughly 79.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, TKO Group generated revenue of $5.1B at a net margin of 4.5%. Revenue grew 25.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.7%. Net debt stands at $3.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $24.17 (bear case) to $57.01 (bull case); at $199.68, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -80%, TKO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($106.65) versus Asset-Based ($12.91). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. operates as a sports and entertainment company. The company operates through three segments: UFC, WWE and IMG. The UFC segment distributes programming content; ticket sales and site fees associated with the business's global live events; partnerships and marketing; and consumer products licensing agreements of UFC-branded products.
Full company description
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. operates as a sports and entertainment company. The company operates through three segments: UFC, WWE and IMG. The UFC segment distributes programming content; ticket sales and site fees associated with the business's global live events; partnerships and marketing; and consumer products licensing agreements of UFC-branded products. The WWE segment consists of media rights fees associated with the distribution of its programming content; ticket sales and site fees associated with the business's global live events; partnerships and marketing; and consumer products licensing agreements of WWE-branded products. The IMG segment specializing in media rights management and sales, multi-channel content production and distribution, brand partnerships, strategic consulting, digital services, and event management. This segment also offers hospitality business, offering ticketing, curated guest experiences, live event production and travel management services. It is also involved in the merchandising of video games, apparel, equipment, trading cards, memorabilia, digital goods, and toys. In addition, the company engages in the sponsorships and advertising business, which offers sale of in-venue and in-broadcast advertising assets, content product integration, and digital impressions. The company was incorporated in 2023 and is based in New York, New York. TKO Group Holdings, Inc. is a subsidiary of WME Group, Inc.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
TKO Group reported revenue of $4.7B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +44.2%/yr. Reported net income was $195M in FY2025, compounding +2.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +20.7 pp · buybacks/dilution −11.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
TKO screens 80% overvalued. Compare with Netflix, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Tikehau Capital (ENXTPA:TKO) Could Be 23% Undervalued As Half Year Earnings Land
- TKO Group Holdings (TKO) Lifts 2026 Guidance On Strong Results, But Is The Valuation Already Priced In?
Peer Group
Entertainment · 268 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Entertainment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netflix, Inc ZNFL | C$6.08 | C$2.66 | -56% |
| The Walt Disney Company DIS | $103.18 | $80.62 | -22% |
| Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc WBD | $27.65 | $9.03 | -67% |
| Live Nation Entertainment, Inc LYV | $185.33 | $59.97 | -68% |
| Empresas Cablevisión, S.A. CABLECPO | 55.00 MXN | 59.14 MXN | +8% |
| PT MNC Digital Entertainment Tbk, MSIN | 370.00 IDR | 212.14 IDR | -43% |
| Prime Focus Limited PFOCUS | ₹268.00 | ₹63.45 | -76% |
| JYP Entertainment Corporation 035900 | 46,000 KRW | 82,382 KRW | +79% |
| SM Entertainment Co 041510 | 75,500 KRW | 208,415 KRW | +176% |
| PVR INOX Limited PVRINOX | ₹1,176 | ₹467.91 | -60% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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