Roku Inc (ROKU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 14, 2026: fair value of Roku Inc $42.86, price $153, upside -71.9%, quality 76 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $38.80 – $479.50 · fair‑value band $30.00 – $55.70 · the $152.57 price screens above the $42.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
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Roku, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a TV streaming platform in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Platform and Devices.
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Its streaming platform allows users to find and access TV shows, movies, news, sports, and others, as well as offers digital advertising services. The company also sells streaming players, Roku-branded TVs, smart home products and services, audio products, and related accessories.
Roku, Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Stock analysis
Roku Inc (ROKU) currently trades at $152.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $42.86, 71.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $95.72 per share, and 0 of the 21 models we run sit above the $152.57 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $13.49, and 21 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $30.00 (bear) to $55.70 (bull), the price of $152.57 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Roku Inc reported revenue of $4.7B in FY2025 versus $2.8B in FY2021, a compound +14.4%/yr. Reported net income was $88.4M in FY2025, compounding −22.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $23.2B · P/E ratio 65.0 · P/S ratio 1.21 · EPS (TTM) $2.36 · Net margin 1.9% · Return on equity 13.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.0% · Operating margin 12.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 84% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −72%, ROKU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$30.00Fair Value $42.86Bull$55.70
Price $152.57 · Upside -71.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.86 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$72.58$107.67$219.3976
Growth DCF$68.95$118.44$218.4775
5Y EBITDA Exit$45.13$66.01$106.2174
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$72.58$107.67$219.3976
Owner Earnings$61.96$126.43$261.7971
5Y Revenue Exit$54.48$85.09$148.2970
5Y EBITDA Exit$45.13$66.01$106.2174
5Y P/E Exit$36.32$54.98$78.2970
10Y Revenue Exit$58.75$110.65$146.1766
10Y EBITDA Exit$53.45$90.90$155.4166
10Y P/E Exit$47.05$72.27$111.4063
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$4.55$31.73$44.5363
Lynch FV$11.38$16.25$21.1361
PEG = 1.0$11.38$16.25$21.1357
Multiples
P/E Multiple$11.04$14.72$18.4063
P/S Multiple$8.53$11.38$14.2258
P/B Multiple$8.53$11.38$14.2255
EV/EBITDA$34.24$41.85$49.4667
EV/Revenue$44.38$58.51$72.6454
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$10.06$13.49$20.1354
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$68.95$118.44$218.4775
Rev-Margin DCF$54.48$95.72$167.9070
Economic Profit
Residual Income$14.71$14.36$14.6871
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$15.00$21.43$27.8567
P/S and P/B multiple show the same value here: both are capped by the same earnings anchor (earnings per share times 17), because margin and return on equity do not support the sector multiple.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +30.9% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−19.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−19.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 0%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+29.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.5% a year for the price and +9.3% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The business shows moderate platform strength in advertising and subscriptions yet thin profitability and limited data constrain durable advantage.
Main risk: Low net margins threaten long-term durability of the platform model that relies on advertising and subscriptions for the bulk of profits.
Roku is preparing substantial home screen updates with greater layout flexibility and seasonal themes to better surface content. This builds on its platform focus where advertising and subscriptions generate the bulk of profits. Our models see it as overvalued. Will these interface improvements accelerate platform growth or mainly intensify competition for limited viewer attention?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Entertainment · 232 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−71.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)6.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)12.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth21.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)65.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B8.72× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)4.45× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow48.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA37.4× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.60× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 29
PAST (return on equity)52· sector 5
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 49
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Roku Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ROKU
Frequently asked questions
Is Roku Inc (ROKU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $42.86 versus a price of $152.57, about −72% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ROKU?
Our model-based fair value for Roku Inc is $42.86 (as of Oct 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $152.57.
What is the quality score of ROKU?
Roku Inc has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Roku Inc (ROKU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $42.86 (as of Oct 13, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $30.00, optimistic scenario $55.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Roku Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $42.86, about −72% upside versus a price of $152.57 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $30.00, optimistic scenario $55.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Roku Inc (ROKU)?
Roku Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.2B (latest available figure, as of Oct 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Roku Inc (ROKU)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Roku Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +29.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +21.7 % per year. As of Oct 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ROKU use?
Our models discount Roku Inc at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 2.05, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Roku Inc that is +29.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Roku Inc (ROKU) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Roku Inc grew +21.7 % a year. The price currently implies +29.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Roku Inc (ROKU) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Roku Inc (+29.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Roku Inc (ROKU)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.06 %: that much free cash flow Roku Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Roku Inc (ROKU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Roku Inc it is $42.86 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026), against a price of $152.57. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Roku Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 13, 2026, ROKU trades above its calculated fair value: price $152.57, fair value $42.86, a gap of about −72% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ROKU?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($152.57); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($42.86). For Roku Inc the two are $109.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Roku Inc worth?
The market values Roku Inc at about $23.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 13, 2026). Per share that is $152.57; our models calculate a fair value of $42.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ROKU?
Our models span a range for Roku Inc: cautious scenario $30.00, base $42.86, optimistic $55.70 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026, price $152.57). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ROKU?
Roku Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 65.0 (as of Oct 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $42.86 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 8.7, P/S 4.4, EV/EBITDA 37.4.
What is the PEG ratio of ROKU?
The PEG ratio of Roku Inc is 0.60 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 13, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Roku Inc (ROKU)?
Balance-sheet figures for Roku Inc (as of Oct 13, 2026): return on equity 13.1%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 76/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ROKU from its 52-week high?
Roku Inc trades at $152.57, about 5% below its 52-week high of $159.76 and 84% above the low of $82.93 (as of Oct 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $42.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Roku Inc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Netflix, Inc, The Walt Disney Company, Live Nation Entertainment, Inc, TKO Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Roku Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 13, 2026: price $152.57, calculated fair value $42.86 (−72%), Quality Score 76/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ROKU calculated?
We run Roku Inc through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $42.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Roku Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Roku Inc (ROKU)?
The closing price on Oct 14, 2026 was $152.57. Our model-based fair value is $42.86, about −72% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Roku Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 76/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($55.70). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range ($30.00 to $55.70) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Roku Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Roku Inc (ROKU)?
The market capitalisation of Roku Inc is $23.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Roku Inc (ROKU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Roku Inc is 1.21 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Roku Inc (ROKU)?
Earnings per share at Roku Inc are $2.36 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 65.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Roku Inc (ROKU)?
The net margin of Roku Inc is 1.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Roku Inc (ROKU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Roku Inc is 13.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Roku Inc (ROKU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Roku Inc is −6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Roku Inc (ROKU)?
The operating margin of Roku Inc is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Roku Inc (ROKU)?
Revenue at Roku Inc is growing +21.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Roku Inc (ROKU)?
Earnings per share at Roku Inc are growing +14.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Roku Inc (ROKU) hold?
Roku Inc holds more cash than debt, $715M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Oct 13, 2026