Roku Inc (ROKU) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $20.8B · ISIN US77543R1023
What is Roku Inc really worth?
Roku Inc
ROKU · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A solid business, but trading 975% above our fair value of $14.73.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 21 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +7.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($18.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $38.80 – $479.50 · fair‑value band $13.60 – $18.42 · the $158.31 price screens above the $14.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Roku Inc (ROKU) currently trades at $158.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.73, implying the stock looks roughly 975.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $95.72 per share, and 0 of the 21 models we run sit above the $158.31 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $13.50, and 21 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Roku Inc generated revenue of $5.0B at a net margin of 4.1%. Revenue grew 22.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $715M. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $13.60 (bear case) to $18.42 (bull case); at $158.31, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 114% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at −91%, ROKU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.9105 per share, which is 6.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 21 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($95.72) versus Asset-Based ($13.50). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Roku, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a TV streaming platform in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Platform and Devices. Its streaming platform allows users to find and access TV shows, movies, news, sports, and others, as well as offers digital advertising services.
Full company description
Roku, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a TV streaming platform in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Platform and Devices. Its streaming platform allows users to find and access TV shows, movies, news, sports, and others, as well as offers digital advertising services. The company also sells streaming players, Roku-branded TVs, smart home products and services, audio products, and related accessories. Roku, Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Roku Inc reported revenue of $4.7B in FY2025 versus $2.8B in FY2021, a compound +14.4%/yr. Reported net income was $88.4M in FY2025, compounding −22.3%/yr from FY2021.
ROKU screens 975% overvalued. Compare with Netflix, Inc →
Peer Group
Entertainment · 253 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Entertainment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netflix, Inc NFLX | $81.72 | $49.35 | −40% |
| The Walt Disney Company DIS | $103.50 | $80.62 | −22% |
| Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc WBD | $27.65 | $9.03 | −67% |
| Live Nation Entertainment, Inc LYV | $182.02 | $59.97 | −67% |
| Universal Music Group UMG | €14.73 | €14.78 | +0% |
| TKO Group TKO | $189.42 | $47.75 | −75% |
| Formula One Group FWONK | $102.02 | $35.21 | −65% |
| Fox Corporation FOXA | $68.42 | $206.81 | +202% |
| News Corporation NWS | A$46.55 | A$20.41 | −56% |
| Warner Music Group WMG | $24.79 | $12.10 | −51% |
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