Universal Music Group N.V. (UMG) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · NL · Market cap €34.7B · ISIN NL0015000IY2
What is Universal Music Group N.V. really worth?
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of €14.78.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 23, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 13 days ago
Share price −3.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range (€9.78 to €18.93) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range €14.25 – €27.94 · fair‑value band €9.78 – €18.93 · the €14.25 price screens below the €14.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
Analysis
Universal Music Group N.V. (UMG) currently trades at €14.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €14.78, implying the stock looks roughly 3.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €16.03 per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the €14.25 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €1.66, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Universal Music Group N.V. generated revenue of €12.5B at a net margin of 12.3%. Revenue grew 5.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.8%. Net debt stands at €3.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 23, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €9.78 (bear case) to €18.93 (bull case); at €14.25, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at 4%, UMG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.2106 per share, which is 1.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€16.03) versus Asset-Based (€1.66). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
Notify me when UMG reaches fair value
Put UMG on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Universal Music Group N.V. operates as a music company worldwide. The company operates through Recorded Music, Music Publishing, and Merchandising & Other segments.
Full company description
Universal Music Group N.V. operates as a music company worldwide. The company operates through Recorded Music, Music Publishing, and Merchandising & Other segments. Its Recorded Music segment discovers and develops recording artists, as well as licenses, markets, promotes, distributes, and sells their music across various formats and platforms; and engages in the live events, sponsorship, film, and television operations. The Music Publishing segment discovers and develops songwriters, as well as owns and administers the copyright for musical compositions used in recordings, public performances, and related uses, such as films and advertisements. Its Merchandising & Other segment produces and sells artist and other branded products through various sales channels, including fashion retail, concert touring, and online, as well as offers brand rights management services. Universal Music Group N.V. was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Hilversum, the Netherlands.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Universal Music Group N.V. reported revenue of €12.5B in FY2025 versus €8.5B in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was €1.5B in FY2025, compounding +14.7%/yr from FY2021.
Watch UMG: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Universal Music Group N.V. Reports Weekly Transactions under its €250 Million Share Buyback Program
- UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP AND HOOK PARTNER TO EXPAND LICENSED FAN CREATIVITY ACROSS SOCIAL MEDIA
- Universal Music Group N.V. Announces Start of its Additional Share Buyback Program of €250 Million
- Universal Music Group Record Low; Roblox Slumps | Stock Movers
Peer Group
Entertainment · 253 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Entertainment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 23, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netflix, Inc NFLX | $81.72 | $49.35 | −40% |
| The Walt Disney Company DIS | $103.50 | $80.62 | −22% |
| Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc WBD | $27.65 | $9.03 | −67% |
| Live Nation Entertainment, Inc LYV | $182.02 | $59.97 | −67% |
| TKO Group TKO | $189.42 | $47.75 | −75% |
| Formula One Group FWONK | $102.02 | $35.21 | −65% |
| Fox Corporation FOXA | $68.42 | $206.81 | +202% |
| News Corporation NWS | A$46.55 | A$20.41 | −56% |
| Warner Music Group WMG | $24.79 | $12.10 | −51% |
| Bolloré SE BOL | €3.85 | €2.11 | −45% |
Compare Universal Music Group N.V. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Communication Services stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is Universal Music Group N.V. (UMG) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of UMG?
What is the quality score of UMG?
What is the revenue of Universal Music Group N.V. (UMG)?
What is the net profit margin of UMG?
Does Universal Music Group N.V. pay a dividend?
Watch Universal Music Group N.V. in the live analysis
One click puts Universal Music Group N.V. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.