Waste Management Inc (WM) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $93.7B · ISIN US94106L1098

What is Waste Management Inc really worth?

Waste Management Inc WM · US

Price$221.72

Fair Value$128.02

Upside−42.3%

Quality56/100

A solid business, but trading 73% above our fair value of $128.02.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +10.6 %/yr)

✓Solidly profitable · 11.0% net margin

✓Wide moat 72/100

Risks

!High debt · generates free cash flow

!Trails peers (5/15)

!Weak on future: 18 out of 100

For context

·1.54% dividend yield

Evidence: High Range $50.10 – $177.02

Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 7 days ago

Share price −1.6% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($177.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
The model range is unusually wide ($50.10 to $177.02). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $126.76 – $244.47 · fair‑value band $50.10 – $177.02 · the $221.72 price screens above the $128.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Waste Management Inc (WM) currently trades at $221.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $128.02, implying the stock looks roughly 73.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $128.02 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $221.72 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $16.67, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Waste Management Inc generated revenue of $25.4B at a net margin of 11.0%. Revenue grew 3.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 29.9%. Net debt stands at $22.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $50.10 (bear case) to $177.02 (bull case); at $221.72, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −42%, WM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.37 per share, which is 1.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

FCF DCF $35.73 $109.27 $237.33 73

EPV $37.48 $52.86 $66.31 73

Growth DCF $35.06 $102.54 $216.95 72

All 24 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF $35.73 $109.27 $237.33 73

Owner Earnings $25.13 $90.04 $203.10 69

5Y Revenue Exit $27.36 $89.28 $173.32 67

5Y EBITDA Exit $90.12 $218.75 $381.88 71

5Y P/E Exit $40.83 $117.06 $204.32 67

10Y Revenue Exit $26.72 $86.59 $178.29 61

10Y EBITDA Exit $71.06 $181.51 $353.00 64

10Y P/E Exit $38.36 $106.96 $204.25 59

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $45.86 $213.24 $292.94 64

Lynch FV $56.27 $80.38 $104.50 61

PEG = 1.0 $56.27 $80.38 $104.50 57

EPV $37.48 $52.86 $66.31 73

Multiples

P/E Multiple $106.21 $141.61 $177.02 63

P/S Multiple $85.98 $114.64 $143.30 58

P/B Multiple $83.96 $111.95 $139.93 55

EV/EBIT $91.50 $140.26 $189.01 65

EV/EBITDA $130.04 $191.65 $253.25 66

EV/Revenue $24.31 $58.20 $92.09 50

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $12.44 $16.67 $24.88 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF $35.06 $102.54 $216.95 72

Rev-Margin DCF $27.36 $87.75 $165.82 68

Economic Profit

Residual Income $45.79 $62.51 $393.87 64

ROIC Compounder $43.54 $79.60 $125.98 69

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $89.62 $128.02 $166.43 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($128.02) versus Asset-Based ($16.67). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (73).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 32.1

P/S ratio 3.45 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) $6.91 price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.1

Dividend yield 1.5% payout 49.5%

Net margin 10.7% FY2025

Return on equity 29.9% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 10.5% avg 5y

Operating margin 17.5% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) $25.4B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) +3.5% 3y avg +8.6%

EPS growth (YoY) +13.3%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow $2.8B FY2025

Net debt $22.7B FY2025 · ≈ 8.1 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56

Profitability 50

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 56

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 64

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 34

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 35

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 94

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 38

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 45

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 85

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Full company description

Waste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides environmental solutions to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and internationally. It offers collection services, including picking up and transporting waste and recyclable materials from where it was generated to a transfer station, recovery facility, or disposal site; owns and operates transfer stations; and owns, develops, and operates landfill gas-to-energy facilities that produce renewable electricity and renewable natural gas. It also operates materials processing and commodities recycling services, including cardboard, paper, glass, metals, plastics, construction and demolition materials, and other recycling commodities are recovered for resale or redirected for other purposes; markets and resells recycling commodities; recycling brokerage services, such as managing the marketing of recyclable materials for third parties; and other strategic business solutions. In addition, the company collects recyclable food and yard waste, as well as markets and sells mulch, compost, soil amendments, and renewable energy; offers remediation and construction, and industrial waste services; and manages and markets fly ash. Further, it provides Regulated Waste and Compliance Services (RWCS), which offers compliance programs, as well as collection, processing, and disposal of regulated and specialized waste, including medical, pharmaceutical, and hazardous waste; and Secure Information Destruction (SID) services that include the collection of personal and confidential information for secure destruction and recycling of sorted office paper. The company was formerly known as USA Waste Services, Inc. and changed its name to Waste Management, Inc. in 1998. Waste Management, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Waste Management Inc reported revenue of $25.2B in FY2025 versus $17.9B in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was $2.7B in FY2025, compounding +10.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 92/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

$25.2B

Latest YoY

+14.2%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+8.6%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+10.6%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (38Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+28.8%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

+13.7% (12.2 + 1.5)

Revenue +8.9%/yr

FY21 $17.9B

FY22 $19.7B

FY23 $20.4B

FY24 $22.1B

FY25 $25.2B

Net income +10.5%/yr

FY21 $1.8B

FY22 $2.2B

FY23 $2.3B

FY24 $2.7B

FY25 $2.7B

Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +11.7 % p.a.

Revenue per share +7.3 %

of which total revenue +5.9 % · buybacks/dilution +1.3 %

EBIT margin +1.1 %

Tax rate +1.2 %

Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.8 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

WM screens 73% overvalued. Compare with Republic Services, Inc →

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Waste Management Inc · Fair Value
$128.02 −73%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Waste Management Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WM

Peer Group

Waste Management · 165 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 56 · Above median

Fair Value upside −42% · Below median

Return on equity (TTM) 30% · Top 25%

Return on assets 7% · Top 25%

Net margin (TTM) 11% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 18% · Above median

Revenue growth 4% · Below median

Dividend yield (TTM) 1.5% · Below median

Debt / equity 2.22× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 32.1× · Pricier than median

P/B 9.38× · Pricier than 75% of peers

P/S (TTM) 3.69× · Pricier than 75% of peers

P/FCF 33.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers

EV/EBITDA 15.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers

PEG 2.38× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE0 · sector 2

FUTURE18 · sector 19

PAST100 · sector 26

HEALTH0 · sector 82

DIVIDEND31 · sector 45

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Waste Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Republic Services, Inc RSG	$220.92	$120.63	−45%
Waste Connections, Inc WCN	C$230.52	C$78.67	−66%
Veolia Environnement SA VIE	€32.60	€23.26	−29%
Clean Harbors, Inc CLH	$311.81	$154.01	−51%
GFL Environmental Inc GFL	C$57.62	C$44.27	−23%
Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, S.A FCC	€11.30	€7.30	−35%
GEM Co 002340	¥6.67	¥5.27	−21%
Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co 603568	¥14.86	¥20.95	+41%
Cleanaway Waste Management Limited CWY	A$2.60	A$1.18	−55%
Beijing GeoEnviron Engineering & Technology, Inc 603588	¥14.10	¥9.35	−34%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Waste Management Inc (WM) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $128.02 versus a price of $221.72, about −42% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of WM?

Our model-based fair value for Waste Management Inc is $128.02 (as of Aug 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $221.72.

What is the quality score of WM?

Waste Management Inc has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the revenue of Waste Management Inc (WM)?

Waste Management Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $25.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 29, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of WM?

The net profit margin of Waste Management Inc is about 11.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 11.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does Waste Management Inc pay a dividend?

Waste Management Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.54% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 29, 2026).

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