Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · AU · Market cap A$5.2B (≈ $3.8B) · ISIN AU000000CWY3
What is Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd really worth?
A solid business, but trading 120% above our fair value of A$1.18.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Share price +11.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$1.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (A$0.8000 to A$1.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$2.12 – A$3.00 · fair‑value band A$0.8000 – A$1.84 · the A$2.60 price screens above the A$1.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY) currently trades at A$2.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.18, implying the stock looks roughly 120.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$1.34 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$2.60 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at A$0.5600, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd generated revenue of A$4.1B at a net margin of 2.9%. Revenue grew 13.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.0%. Net debt stands at A$1.7B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.8000 (bear case) to A$1.84 (bull case); at A$2.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −55%, CWY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (A$1.34) versus Growth DCF (A$0.5600). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Cleanaway Waste Management Limited provides waste management, industrial, and environmental services in Australia. It engages in the collection, recovery, and disposal of solid waste, including putrescible waste, inert waste, household waste and recovered waste processed through the resource recovery and recycling facilities, transfer stations, and …
Full company description
Cleanaway Waste Management Limited provides waste management, industrial, and environmental services in Australia. It engages in the collection, recovery, and disposal of solid waste, including putrescible waste, inert waste, household waste and recovered waste processed through the resource recovery and recycling facilities, transfer stations, and landfills; and provision of safe treatment and disposal of health-related waste services, including sharps management, medical and pharmaceutical waste, and healthcare hazardous waste and quarantine waste to the health sector. The company also collects, treats, processes, refines, recycles, and destructs hazardous and non-hazardous liquids, hydrocarbons and chemical waste, specialized product destruction, and hazardous waste; and offers various services, such as vacuum loading, high pressure cleaning, pipeline maintenance, and non-destructive digging to the resources, oil and gas, infrastructure, and industrial markets. In addition, it offers commercial and industrial, municipal, and residential collection services, including general waste, recyclables, construction, and demolition waste, as well as medical and washroom services; owns and manages waste transfer stations, resource recovery and recycling facilities, secure product destruction, quarantine treatment operations and landfills; and sells recovered paper, cardboard, metals, and plastics. Further, the company collects, treats, processes, and recycles industrial waste, grease trap waste, oily water, and used mineral and cooking oils; provides industrial cleaning, vacuum tanker loading, site remediation, sludge management, parts washing, and high pressure cleaning services; refines and recycles used mineral oils to produce fuel and base oils; and generates and sells electricity. Cleanaway Waste Management Limited was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd reported revenue of A$3.8B in FY2025 versus A$2.4B in FY2021, a compound +12.4%/yr. Reported net income was A$157M in FY2025, compounding +1.9%/yr from FY2021.
CWY screens 120% overvalued. Compare with Waste Management, Inc →
Peer Group
Waste Management · 165 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Waste Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waste Management, Inc WM | $217.76 | $128.02 | −41% |
| Republic Services, Inc RSG | $220.92 | $120.63 | −45% |
| Waste Connections, Inc WCN | C$230.52 | C$78.67 | −66% |
| Veolia Environnement SA VIE | €32.60 | €23.26 | −29% |
| Clean Harbors, Inc CLH | $311.81 | $154.01 | −51% |
| GFL Environmental Inc GFL | C$57.62 | C$44.27 | −23% |
| Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, S.A FCC | €11.30 | €7.30 | −35% |
| GEM Co 002340 | ¥6.67 | ¥5.27 | −21% |
| Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co 603568 | ¥14.86 | ¥20.95 | +41% |
| Beijing GeoEnviron Engineering & Technology, Inc 603588 | ¥14.10 | ¥9.35 | −34% |
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