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Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $12.7B · ISIN CA36168Q1046

What is Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc really worth?

GE Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc logo Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc GFL · US
Price$43.48
Fair Value$130.29
Upside+199.7%
Quality53/100

A solid business, trading 67% below our fair value of $130.29.

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Strengths

✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +9.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.1% net margin
!Trails peers (3/14)
!Narrow moat 37/100
!Weak on future: 27 out of 100
!Weak on past: 12 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 4 out of 100

For context

·0.19% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $46.82 – $130.29

Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Fair value updated Sep 2, 2026, revised from $130.47 to $130.29 (−0.1%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +3.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case ($46.82). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The model range is unusually wide ($46.82 to $130.29). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$51.48 $23.81 Fair Value $130.29 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $23.81 – $51.48 · fair‑value band $46.82 – $130.29 · the $43.48 price screens below the $130.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

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Analysis

Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL) currently trades at $43.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $130.29, implying the stock looks roughly 66.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $268.37 per share, and 12 of the 17 models we run sit above the $43.48 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $14.01, and 5 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc generated revenue of $6.7B at a net margin of 3.1%. Revenue grew 5.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.0%. Net debt stands at $7.8B. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $46.82 (bear case) to $130.29 (bull case); at $43.48, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 200%, GFL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.1875 per share, which is 0.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence — — $4.03 77
Growth DCF — — $1.35 75
Owner Earnings $137.17 $285.51 $558.77 72
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence — — $4.03 77
Owner Earnings $137.17 $285.51 $558.77 72
5Y Revenue Exit — — $9.61 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $12.79 $49.73 $98.62 69
5Y P/E Exit $93.31 $222.89 $379.64 67
10Y Revenue Exit — — $8.96 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $3.98 $34.80 $86.62 59
10Y P/E Exit $58.31 $164.82 $331.84 59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $74.67 $397.91 $551.14 63
Lynch FV $109.77 $156.81 $203.85 61
PEG = 1.0 $109.77 $156.81 $203.85 57
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.8200 $1.70 $2.70 66
DDM Multi-Stage $0.8200 $1.43 $1.78 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $172.95 $230.60 $288.25 63
P/S Multiple $28.42 $37.90 $47.37 58
P/B Multiple $70.59 $94.12 $117.65 55
EV/EBIT — — $3.32 61
EV/EBITDA $27.84 $44.13 $60.41 66
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $10.46 $14.01 $20.92 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF — — $1.35 75
Rev-Margin DCF — — $8.10 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income $126.94 $268.37 $10,007 64
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $162.04 $231.49 $300.93 67

Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($268.37) versus Dividend Discount ($1.43). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 97.5 as of Jun 20, 2026
P/S ratio 56.5 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.3600 price ÷ EPS = P/E 97.5
Dividend yield 0.2% payout 23.3%
Net margin 58.0% FY2025
Return on equity 3.0% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8% avg 5y
Operating margin 3.2% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $6.7B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +5.4% 3y avg −0.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +22.2%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $175M FY2025
Net debt $7.8B FY2025 · ≈ 44.9 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 66
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 78
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 24
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 20
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 61
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 86
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 42
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 39
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. It offers solid waste management services, including collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal services for municipal, residential, commercial, and industrial customers.

Full company description

GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. It offers solid waste management services, including collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal services for municipal, residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Miami Beach, Florida.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc reported revenue of C$6.6B in FY2025 versus C$5.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was C$3.8B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 60/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$6.6B
Latest YoY
+7.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (9Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+24.3%
Value creation/yr ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
not computed
Revenue +6.5%/yr
FY21 C$5.1B
FY22 C$6.8B
FY23 C$7.5B
FY24 C$6.1B
FY25 C$6.6B
Net income
FY21 −C$607M
FY22 −C$312M
FY23 C$45.4M
FY24 −C$723M
FY25 C$3.8B

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Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc · Fair Value
$130.29 +67%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GFL

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Waste Management · 165 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside +200% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Revenue growth 5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.2% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 1.02× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 97.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.73× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.89× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 72.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 12.1× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 2
FUTURE27 · sector 19
PAST12 · sector 26
HEALTH49 · sector 82
DIVIDEND4 · sector 45

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Waste Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Waste Management, Inc WM $217.76 $128.02 −41%
Republic Services, Inc RSG $220.92 $120.63 −45%
Waste Connections, Inc WCN C$230.52 C$78.67 −66%
Veolia Environnement SA VIE €32.60 €23.26 −29%
Clean Harbors, Inc CLH $311.81 $154.01 −51%
Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, S.A FCC €11.30 €7.30 −35%
GEM Co 002340 ¥6.67 ¥5.27 −21%
Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co 603568 ¥14.86 ¥20.95 +41%
Cleanaway Waste Management Limited CWY A$2.60 A$1.18 −55%
Beijing GeoEnviron Engineering & Technology, Inc 603588 ¥14.10 ¥9.35 −34%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $130.29 versus a price of $43.48, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GFL?
Our model-based fair value for Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc is $130.29 (as of Sep 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $43.48.
What is the quality score of GFL?
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 2, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of GFL?
The net profit margin of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc is about 3.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.19% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 2, 2026).
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