Waste Connections Inc (WCN) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $43.1B · ISIN CA94106B1013
What is Waste Connections Inc really worth?
Waste Connections Inc
WCN · US
A solid business, but trading 113% above our fair value of $78.46.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price +0.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($113.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($41.12 to $113.38). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $111.49 – $198.02 · fair‑value band $41.12 – $113.38 · the $166.81 price screens above the $78.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Waste Connections Inc (WCN) currently trades at $166.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $78.46, implying the stock looks roughly 112.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $103.25 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the $166.81 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $21.70, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Waste Connections Inc generated revenue of $9.6B at a net margin of 11.0%. Revenue grew 6.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.1%. Net debt stands at $9.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $41.12 (bear case) to $113.38 (bull case); at $166.81, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −53%, WCN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.87 per share, which is 2.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($103.25) versus Asset-Based ($21.70). Highest evidence: EPV (73).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Waste Connections, Inc. provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, and disposal services in the United States and Canada.
Full company description
Waste Connections, Inc. provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, and disposal services in the United States and Canada. It offers collection services to residential, commercial, municipal, industrial, and exploration and production (E&P) customers; landfill disposal services; and recycling services for various recyclable materials, including compost, cardboard, mixed paper, plastic containers, glass bottles, and ferrous and aluminum metals. The company owns and operates transfer stations that receive, compact, and/or load waste to be transported to landfills or treatment facilities through truck, rail, or barge; develops, owns, and operates projects or the beneficial reuse of landfill gas through landfill network; and intermodal services for the movement of cargo and solid waste containers. In addition, it provides E&P waste treatment, recovery, and disposal services for waste created through the initial drilling and completion of an oil or natural gas well, such as drilling fluids, drill cuttings, completion fluids, and flowback water; production wastes and produced water during a well's operating life; contaminated soils that require treatment during site reclamation; and substances, which require clean-up after a spill, reserve pit clean-up, or pipeline rupture. Waste Connections, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is based in Woodbridge, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Waste Connections Inc reported revenue of $9.5B in FY2025 versus $6.2B in FY2021, a compound +11.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025, compounding +15.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +13.9 % · buybacks/dilution −2.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
WCN screens 113% overvalued. Compare with Waste Management, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- WCN Shares Rise 8.6% in 3 Months: Here's What You Should Know
- Is Waste Connections (NYSE:WCN) Undervalued Even With Pricey Earnings?
- Why Is Waste Connections (WCN) Up 0.2% Since Last Earnings Report?
- Here's Why Investors Must Hold WCN Stock in Their Portfolios Now
Peer Group
Waste Management · 165 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Waste Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waste Management, Inc WM | $217.76 | $128.02 | −41% |
| Republic Services, Inc RSG | $220.92 | $120.63 | −45% |
| Veolia Environnement SA VIE | €32.60 | €23.26 | −29% |
| Clean Harbors, Inc CLH | $311.81 | $154.01 | −51% |
| GFL Environmental Inc GFL | C$57.62 | C$44.27 | −23% |
| Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, S.A FCC | €11.30 | €7.30 | −35% |
| GEM Co 002340 | ¥6.67 | ¥5.27 | −21% |
| Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co 603568 | ¥14.86 | ¥20.95 | +41% |
| Cleanaway Waste Management Limited CWY | A$2.60 | A$1.18 | −55% |
| Beijing GeoEnviron Engineering & Technology, Inc 603588 | ¥14.10 | ¥9.35 | −34% |
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