Republic Services Inc (RSG) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $67.3B · ISIN US7607591002
What is Republic Services Inc really worth?
Republic Services Inc
RSG · US
A solid business, but trading 87% above our fair value of $120.63.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +8.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($182.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($56.77 to $182.50). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $99.63 – $254.52 · fair‑value band $56.77 – $182.50 · the $225.12 price screens above the $120.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
Analysis
Republic Services Inc (RSG) currently trades at $225.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $120.63, implying the stock looks roughly 86.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $131.93 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $225.12 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $26.06, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Republic Services Inc generated revenue of $16.7B at a net margin of 13.0%. Revenue grew 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.4%. Net debt stands at $520M. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $56.77 (bear case) to $182.50 (bull case); at $225.12, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −46%, RSG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $3.03 per share, which is 2.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($131.93) versus Asset-Based ($26.06). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Republic Services, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, offers environmental services in the United States and Canada. It is involved in the collection and processing of recyclable, solid waste, and industrial waste materials; transportation and disposal of non-hazardous and hazardous waste streams; and other environmental solutions.
Full company description
Republic Services, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, offers environmental services in the United States and Canada. It is involved in the collection and processing of recyclable, solid waste, and industrial waste materials; transportation and disposal of non-hazardous and hazardous waste streams; and other environmental solutions. Its residential collection services include curbside collection of material for transport to transfer stations, landfills, recycling centers, and organics processing facilities; supply of recycling and waste containers; and renting of compactors. The company also engages in the processing and sale of old corrugated containers, old newsprint, aluminum, glass, and other materials; and provision of landfill services. It serves small-container, large-container, and residential customers. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Phoenix, Arizona.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Republic Services Inc reported revenue of $16.6B in FY2025 versus $11.3B in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was $2.1B in FY2025, compounding +13.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.4 % · buybacks/dilution +1.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
RSG screens 87% overvalued. Compare with Waste Management, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- How Florida’s First All‑Electric Waste Fleet Rollout Could Shape Republic Services’ (RSG) Sustainability Narrative
- Republic Services Earns Great Place to Work Certification for 10th Consecutive Year
Peer Group
Waste Management · 165 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Waste Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waste Management, Inc WM | $217.76 | $128.02 | −41% |
| Waste Connections, Inc WCN | C$230.52 | C$78.67 | −66% |
| Veolia Environnement SA VIE | €32.60 | €23.26 | −29% |
| Clean Harbors, Inc CLH | $311.81 | $154.01 | −51% |
| GFL Environmental Inc GFL | C$57.62 | C$44.27 | −23% |
| Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, S.A FCC | €11.30 | €7.30 | −35% |
| GEM Co 002340 | ¥6.67 | ¥5.27 | −21% |
| Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co 603568 | ¥14.86 | ¥20.95 | +41% |
| Cleanaway Waste Management Limited CWY | A$2.60 | A$1.18 | −55% |
| Beijing GeoEnviron Engineering & Technology, Inc 603588 | ¥14.10 | ¥9.35 | −34% |
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