Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · AU · Market cap A$57.9B (≈ $41.7B) · ISIN AU0000224040
What is Woodside Energy Group Ltd really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 54% above our fair value of A$20.71.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −2.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$25.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$13.64 – A$35.80 · fair‑value band A$14.46 – A$25.89 · the A$31.83 price screens above the A$20.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) currently trades at A$31.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$20.71, implying the stock looks roughly 53.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$32.34 per share, and 2 of the 15 models we run sit above the A$31.83 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at A$8.46, and 13 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Woodside Energy Group Ltd generated revenue of A$13.0B at a net margin of 20.9%. Revenue declined 11.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.2%. Net debt stands at A$13.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$14.46 (bear case) to A$25.89 (bull case); at A$31.83, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −35%, WDS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly A$0.5911 per share, which is 2.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$32.34) versus DCF Models (A$1.26). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Woodside Energy Group Ltd engages in the exploration, evaluation, development, production, marketing, and sale of hydrocarbons in the Asia Pacific, Africa, the Americas, and the Europe. It produces liquefied natural gas, pipeline gas, crude oil and condensate, and natural gas liquids.
Full company description
Woodside Energy Group Ltd engages in the exploration, evaluation, development, production, marketing, and sale of hydrocarbons in the Asia Pacific, Africa, the Americas, and the Europe. It produces liquefied natural gas, pipeline gas, crude oil and condensate, and natural gas liquids. The company holds interests in the Pluto LNG, North West Shelf, Wheatstone and Julimar-Brunello, Bass Strait, Ngujima-Yin FPSO, Okha FPSO, Pyrenees FPSO, Macedon, Shenzi, Mad dog, Greater Angostura, as well as Scarborough, Sangomar, Trion, Calypso, Browse, Liard, Ruby, Sangomar, Atlantis, Woodside Solar opportunity, and Sunrise and Troubadour. It is also involved in the development of new energy products and lower-carbon services. The company was formerly known as Woodside Petroleum Ltd and changed its name to Woodside Energy Group Ltd in May 2022. Woodside Energy Group Ltd was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Woodside Energy Group Ltd reported revenue of $13.4B in FY2025 versus $7.0B in FY2021, a compound +17.8%/yr. Reported net income was $2.8B in FY2025, compounding +9.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +10.5 % · buybacks/dilution −8.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
WDS screens 54% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- GULF SOUTH BUSINESS ROUNDTABLE WELCOMES WOODSIDE ENERGY AS NEWEST MEMBER
- Woodside assumes operatorship of Gippsland Basin assets
- Is Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) a Mispriced Opportunity?
- Woodside Wins Contract to Supply Gas to Alcoa
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 296 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | −1% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $130.35 | $90.15 | −31% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | C$69.03 | C$44.78 | −35% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $143.35 | $132.20 | −8% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $59.17 | $30.06 | −49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $200.52 | $105.24 | −48% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $47.35 | $27.06 | −43% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.57 | $42.85 | −21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $366.50 | $77.26 | −79% |
| Expand Energy Corporation EXE | $98.16 | $106.45 | +8% |
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